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Gridiron Edge272 games Β· 79 played Β· Week 6 on the board

NFL Schedule Predictor 2026: Every Game, Every Week Picked

Model as of Β· prices live

The model’s straight-up winner and win probability for every game on the 2026 schedule β€” this week first, then all 18 weeks β€” and where the season lands: projected record and playoff odds for all 32 teams from a 10,000-season simulation. Tap any game for its model line, the Kalshi price and the edge between them.

Quick Answer

As of October 15, 2026, across all 272 regular-season games the model's straight-up pick is the home team 195 times and the road team 77 times, with 54 games inside 55/45 on the model; of the 47 games Kalshi has priced so far it sides with the market favorite in 44 and calls 3 upsets.

This week (Week 6, 14 games): 11 market favorites and 1 upset straight up β€” biggest upset call Panthers over Eagles at 54% (Kalshi 49.5Β’).

Strongest call still to play: Rams over Cardinals in Week 6 at 87%.

Season simulation: San Francisco 49ers lead the league at a projected 12.2–4.8 (89% to make the playoffs) over 10,000 simulated seasons.

NFL Week 6 predictions β†’

This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions β†’Week 7 predictions β†’Week 5 results β†’

Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers

This week's straight-up winners

Kalshi has priced 12 of these 14 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction β€” that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 4.0 points closer to the Eagles than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge. 2 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Seahawks over Broncos    59%56.5Β’
  2. Jaguars over Texans    59%56.5Β’
  3. Bears at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ€”51.5Β’
  4. Ravens at Browns Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ€”68.5Β’
  5. Colts over Titans    73%74.5Β’
  6. Patriots over Jets    75%75.5Β’
  7. Saints over Giants    54%50.5Β’
  8. Panthers over EaglesUpset    54%49.5Β’
  9. Steelers over Buccaneers    59%57.5Β’
  10. Rams over Cardinals    87%87.5Β’
  11. Chiefs over Chargers    76%78.5Β’
  12. Bills over Raiders    65%67.5Β’
  13. Packers over Cowboys    55%52.5Β’
  14. 49ers over Commanders    75%77.5Β’

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β€” it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β€” the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Full board with the play and the edge on every game: NFL Week 6 predictions Β· NFL Week 7 predictions

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Every week, every game picked

All 272 regular-season games, winner and model win probability. Weeks already played show the call the model published before kickoff β€” no result is claimed here. Kalshi prices fill in as each week’s markets list.

Week 1played16 pre-game callsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. SEASeahawks over Patriots Β· pre-game call57%50Β’
  2. LARRams over 49ers Β· pre-game call63%50Β’
  3. CHIBears over Panthers Β· pre-game call51%50Β’
  4. CINBengals over Buccaneers Β· pre-game call57%50Β’
  5. DETLions over Saints Β· pre-game call65%50Β’
  6. HOUTexans over Bills Β· pre-game call53%50Β’
  7. INDColts over Ravens Β· pre-game call54%50Β’
  8. JAXJaguars over Browns Β· pre-game call65%50Β’
  9. PITSteelers over Falcons Β· pre-game call57%50Β’
  10. TENTitans over Jets Β· pre-game call58%50Β’
  11. LACChargers over Cardinals Β· pre-game call66%50Β’
  12. LVRaiders over Dolphins Β· pre-game call50%50Β’
  13. GBPackers over Vikings Β· pre-game call60%50Β’
  14. PHIEagles over Commanders Β· pre-game call67%50Β’
  15. NYGGiants over Cowboys Β· pre-game call50%50Β’
  16. KCChiefs over Broncos Β· pre-game call53%50Β’

Week 1 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 2played16 pre-game callsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. BUFBills over Lions Β· pre-game call69%β€”
  2. CARPanthers over Falcons Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  3. BALRavens over Saints Β· pre-game call77%β€”
  4. CHIBears over Vikings Β· pre-game call65%β€”
  5. HOUTexans over Bengals Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  6. NEPatriots over Steelers Β· pre-game call69%β€”
  7. GBPackers over Jets Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  8. TBBuccaneers over Browns Β· pre-game call76%β€”
  9. PHIEagles over Titans Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  10. DENBroncos over Jaguars Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  11. LACChargers over Raiders Β· pre-game call72%β€”
  12. SEASeahawks over Cardinals Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  13. DALCowboys over Commanders Β· pre-game call64%β€”
  14. SF49ers over Dolphins Β· pre-game call88%β€”
  15. KCChiefs over Colts Β· pre-game call70%β€”
  16. LARRams over Giants Β· pre-game call73%β€”

Week 2 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 3played16 pre-game callsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. GBPackers over Falcons Β· pre-game call65%β€”
  2. BUFBills over Chargers Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  3. CARPanthers over Browns Β· pre-game call57%β€”
  4. DETLions over Jets Β· pre-game call72%β€”
  5. HOUTexans over Colts Β· pre-game call55%β€”
  6. JAXJaguars over Patriots Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  7. KCChiefs over Dolphins Β· pre-game call81%β€”
  8. NYGGiants over Titans Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  9. CINBengals over Steelers Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  10. SEASeahawks over Commanders Β· pre-game call76%β€”
  11. SF49ers over Cardinals Β· pre-game call75%β€”
  12. MINVikings over Buccaneers Β· pre-game call55%β€”
  13. BALRavens over Cowboys Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  14. NOSaints over Raiders Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  15. LARRams over Broncos Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  16. PHIEagles over Bears Β· pre-game callUpset62%40.5Β’

Week 3 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 4played16 pre-game callsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. PITSteelers over Browns Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  2. INDColts over Commanders Β· pre-game call65%β€”
  3. BALRavens over Titans Β· pre-game call85%β€”
  4. BUFBills over Patriots Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  5. CHIBears over Jets Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  6. CINBengals over Jaguars Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  7. HOUTexans over Cowboys Β· pre-game call60%β€”
  8. ARICardinals over Giants Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  9. LARRams over Eagles Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  10. GBPackers over Buccaneers Β· pre-game call60%β€”
  11. MINVikings over Dolphins Β· pre-game call80%β€”
  12. KCChiefs over Raiders Β· pre-game call65%β€”
  13. SEASeahawks over Chargers Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  14. SF49ers over Broncos Β· pre-game call60%β€”
  15. DETLions over Panthers Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  16. NOSaints over Falcons Β· pre-game callUpset55%11.5Β’

Week 4 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 5played15 pre-game callsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. DALCowboys over Buccaneers Β· pre-game call79%β€”
  2. JAXJaguars over Eagles Β· pre-game call76%β€”
  3. CINBengals over Dolphins Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  4. NEPatriots over Raiders Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  5. MINVikings over Saints Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  6. NYJJets over Browns Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  7. PITSteelers over Colts Β· pre-game call59%β€”
  8. HOUTexans over Titans Β· pre-game call73%β€”
  9. WASCommanders over Giants Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  10. DENBroncos over Chargers Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  11. DETLions over Cardinals Β· pre-game call69%β€”
  12. CHIBears over Packers Β· pre-game call55%β€”
  13. SEASeahawks over 49ers Β· pre-game call60%β€”
  14. ATLFalcons over Ravens Β· pre-game call62%β€”
  15. LARRams over Bills Β· pre-game call62%61.5Β’

Week 5 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 6this week11 favorites Β· 1 upsetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. SEASeahawks over Broncos59%56.5Β’
  2. JAXJaguars over Texans59%56.5Β’
  3. Bears at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”51.5Β’
  4. Ravens at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”68.5Β’
  5. INDColts over Titans73%74.5Β’
  6. NEPatriots over Jets75%75.5Β’
  7. NOSaints over Giants54%50.5Β’
  8. CARPanthers over EaglesUpset54%49.5Β’
  9. PITSteelers over Buccaneers59%57.5Β’
  10. LARRams over Cardinals87%87.5Β’
  11. KCChiefs over Chargers76%78.5Β’
  12. BUFBills over Raiders65%67.5Β’
  13. GBPackers over Cowboys55%52.5Β’
  14. SF49ers over Commanders75%77.5Β’

Week 6 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 711 favorites Β· 0 upsetsShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Patriots at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”53.5Β’
  2. PITSteelers over Saints55%57Β’
  3. 49ers at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”68Β’
  4. Bengals at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”62.5Β’
  5. CARPanthers over Buccaneers59%60Β’
  6. HOUTexans over Giants75%78Β’
  7. MINVikings over Colts67%69.5Β’
  8. NYJJets over Dolphins65%66.5Β’
  9. CLEBrowns over Titans55%52.5Β’
  10. DENBroncos over Cardinals67%68.5Β’
  11. DETLions over Packers62%64.5Β’
  12. LARRams over Raiders72%74Β’
  13. SEASeahawks over Chiefs59%56.5Β’
  14. PHIEagles over Cowboys50%51.5Β’

Week 7 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 814 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. GBPackers over Panthers62%β€”
  2. Ravens at Bills Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. CINBengals over Titans73%β€”
  4. DALCowboys over Cardinals66%β€”
  5. DETLions over Vikings59%β€”
  6. JAXJaguars over Colts67%β€”
  7. NYJJets over Raiders59%β€”
  8. PITSteelers over Browns58%β€”
  9. Falcons at Buccaneers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. LARRams over Chargers70%β€”
  11. DENBroncos over Chiefs59%β€”
  12. NEPatriots over Dolphins66%β€”
  13. WASCommanders over Eagles52%β€”
  14. Bears at Seahawks Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 8 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 915 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Jaguars at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Bengals at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Broncos at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Cowboys at Colts Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Jets at Chiefs Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Lions at Dolphins Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Browns at Saints Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Giants at Eagles Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Rams at Commanders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Texans at Chargers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Raiders at 49ers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Packers at Patriots Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Cardinals at Seahawks Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Buccaneers at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Bills at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 9 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1014 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Commanders at Giants Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Patriots at Lions Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Chiefs at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Texans at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Vikings at Packers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Dolphins at Colts Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Panthers at Saints Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Bills at Jets Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Jaguars at Titans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Rams at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Seahawks at Raiders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. 49ers at Cowboys Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Steelers at Bengals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Chargers at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 10 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1113 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Colts at Texans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Dolphins at Bills Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Ravens at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Saints at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Titans at Cowboys Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Buccaneers at Lions Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Cardinals at Chiefs Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Jaguars at Giants Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Jets at Chargers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Raiders at Broncos Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Steelers at Eagles Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Vikings at 49ers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Bengals at Commanders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 11 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1216 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Packers at Rams Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Bears at Lions Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Eagles at Cowboys Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Chiefs at Bills Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Broncos at Steelers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Saints at Bengals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Raiders at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Ravens at Texans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Giants at Colts Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Jets at Dolphins Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Falcons at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Titans at Jaguars Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Commanders at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Seahawks at 49ers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Patriots at Chargers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  16. Panthers at Buccaneers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 12 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1314 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Chiefs at Rams Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Lions at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Jaguars at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Bengals at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Packers at Saints Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. 49ers at Giants Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Chargers at Buccaneers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Commanders at Titans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Eagles at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Dolphins at Broncos Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Panthers at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Bills at Patriots Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Texans at Steelers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Cowboys at Seahawks Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 13 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1415 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Vikings at Patriots Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Buccaneers at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Saints at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Falcons at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Titans at Lions Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Bears at Dolphins Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Broncos at Jets Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Colts at Eagles Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Texans at Commanders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Chargers at Raiders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Chiefs at Bengals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Giants at Seahawks Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Rams at 49ers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Bills at Packers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Steelers at Jaguars Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 14 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1516 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. 49ers at Chargers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Seahawks at Eagles Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Bears at Bills Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Bengals at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Dolphins at Packers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Jaguars at Texans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Browns at Giants Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Ravens at Steelers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Saints at Buccaneers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Colts at Titans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Falcons at Commanders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Jets at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Cowboys at Rams Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Broncos at Raiders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Lions at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  16. Patriots at Chiefs Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 15 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1616 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Texans at Eagles Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Packers at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Bills at Broncos Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Rams at Seahawks Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Buccaneers at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Browns at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Bengals at Colts Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Chargers at Dolphins Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Commanders at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Cardinals at Saints Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Patriots at Jets Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Panthers at Steelers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Titans at Raiders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. 49ers at Chiefs Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Jaguars at Cowboys Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  16. Giants at Lions Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 16 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1716 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Ravens at Bengals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Saints at Falcons Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Seahawks at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Colts at Browns Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Giants at Cowboys Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Commanders at Jaguars Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Chiefs at Chargers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Bills at Dolphins Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Broncos at Patriots Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Vikings at Jets Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Rams at Buccaneers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Steelers at Titans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Raiders at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Lions at Bears Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Eagles at 49ers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  16. Texans at Packers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 17 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Week 1816 games Β· not priced yetShow picks β–Ύ
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. 49ers at Cardinals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  2. Steelers at Ravens Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  3. Jets at Bills Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  4. Falcons at Panthers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  5. Browns at Bengals Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  6. Chargers at Broncos Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  7. Lions at Packers Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  8. Titans at Texans Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  9. Jaguars at Colts Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  10. Raiders at Chiefs Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  11. Seahawks at Rams Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  12. Bears at Vikings Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  13. Dolphins at Patriots Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  14. Buccaneers at Saints Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  15. Eagles at Giants Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”
  16. Cowboys at Commanders Β· QB pendingβ€”β€”

Week 18 picks & predictions β†’ β€” full board and the edge on every game.

Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents, once the market lists. An upset is a model winner priced under 50Β’ β€” that is a straight-up call, not the play; the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Season simulation: projected records and playoff odds

Full standings & playoff odds β†’

Where the schedule lands: the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons on the same power ratings, with 79 played games fixed as results. Picked = games the predictor above hands the team straight up (a count of picks, not a record).

AFC

by projected wins
#TeamProj W–LPickedPlayoffs
1Jaguars11.2–5.81083%2Bills10.9–6.11377%3Patriots10.7–6.31379%4Ravens10.5–6.51070%5Chiefs10.4–6.6974%6Bengals9.9–7.11060%7Broncos9.8–7.2963%8Browns8.9–8.1542%9Steelers8.8–8.21141%10Colts8.0–9.0930%11Raiders7.8–9.2226%12Jets7.4–9.6425%13Texans7.3–9.71222%14Chargers4.9–12.175%15Titans4.2–12.822%16Dolphins4.1–12.922%

NFC

by projected wins
#TeamProj W–LPickedPlayoffs
149ers12.2–4.8989%2Vikings10.9–6.1776%3Seahawks10.3–6.71666%4Giants9.5–7.5559%5Bears9.5–7.51353%6Packers9.5–7.51252%7Lions9.3–7.71350%8Rams9.0–8.01649%9Panthers8.3–8.7946%10Eagles8.2–8.81037%11Falcons8.1–8.9641%12Cowboys7.7–9.3928%13Buccaneers6.9–10.1424%14Commanders6.3–10.7412%15Saints6.0–11.0712%16Cardinals5.5–11.544%

Proj W–L = simulated mean wins and the losses that leaves over 17 games. Playoffs = share of simulated seasons reaching the postseason by any route. Seven teams per conference qualify β€” the gold line marks the seventh seed. Projections, not results.

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NFL schedule predictor 2026 β€” frequently asked

How does the NFL schedule predictor pick each game?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings β€” PWR is points per game above an average team on a neutral field, PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. The rating gap plus home field gives an expected margin, the margin gives a home win probability, and the straight-up winner is simply the side above 50%. The projected score splits that margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 42.58 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013–2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

How often does the predictor update?

Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played, so every unplayed game on this page re-prices after each week; the current week also re-runs against the latest Kalshi prices through kickoff. The stamp under the title is the newest model or simulation run on the page β€” never the time the page was built. Games already played keep the pre-game call they were published with, labelled as such, rather than being rewritten after the fact.

What is the difference between the straight-up winner and the play?

The straight-up winner is the side with the higher model win probability β€” the team the predictor expects to win. The play is different: it is the side where the model probability and the Kalshi price disagree by 5 points or more, and it is routinely the underdog. A row tagged Upset is a straight-up winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. Each game links to its matchup page, which shows the play, the model line and the edge against the market.

What is the 2026 season simulation?

The season table is the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons run on the same power ratings. Each simulated season plays the full 17-game schedule with home field, rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreaker procedure, and games already played are fixed as results (79 so far). Projected W–L is the average wins across those seasons and the losses that leaves; Playoffs is the share of seasons in which the team reached the postseason. "Picked" is a different number: how many games on the schedule the game-by-game predictor above hands that team straight up β€” a count of picks, not a projected record.

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Full standings & playoff odds β†’NFL predictions β†’Weekly schedule β†’Win totals vs Kalshi β†’Power rankings β†’This week’s edges β†’

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