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NFL WEEK 1

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Gridiron Edge272 games · 2 played · Week 1 on the board

NFL Schedule Predictor 2026: Every Game, Every Week Picked

Model as of · prices live

The model’s straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for every game on the 2026 schedule — this week first, then all 18 weeks — and where the season lands: projected record and playoff odds for all 32 teams from a 10,000-season simulation. Tap any game for its model line, the Kalshi price and the edge between them.

Quick Answer

As of September 11, 2026, across all 272 regular-season games the model's straight-up pick is the home team 213 times and the road team 59 times, with 80 games inside 55/45 on the model; of the 32 games Kalshi has priced so far it sides with the market favorite in 28 and calls 4 upsets.

This week (Week 1, 16 games): 12 market favorites and 4 upsets straight up — biggest upset call Packers over Vikings at 60% (Kalshi 46¢).

Strongest call of the season: Patriots over Raiders in Week 5 at 81%.

Season simulation: Seattle Seahawks lead the league at a projected 11.1–5.9 (74% to make the playoffs) over 10,000 simulated seasons.

NFL Week 1 predictions →

This week on the boardNFL Week 1 predictions →Week 2 predictions →

This week's straight-up picks (Week 1)

12 market favorites and 4 upsets across 16 games. Biggest upset call: Packers over Vikings at 60% (Kalshi 46¢).

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Seahawks over Patriots · pre-game call    57%50¢
  2. Rams over 49ers · pre-game call    63%50¢
  3. Bears over Panthers    51%59.5¢
  4. Bengals over Buccaneers    57%63.5¢
  5. Lions over Saints    65%74.5¢
  6. Texans over BillsUpset    53%48.5¢
  7. Colts over RavensUpset    54%39.5¢
  8. Jaguars over Browns    65%78.5¢
  9. Steelers over Falcons    57%68.5¢
  10. Titans over Jets    58%51.5¢
  11. Chargers over Cardinals    66%80.5¢
  12. Raiders over Dolphins    50%59.5¢
  13. Packers over VikingsUpset    60%46¢
  14. Eagles over Commanders    67%67.5¢
  15. Giants over CowboysUpset    50%39.5¢
  16. Chiefs over Broncos    53%56.5¢

Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.

Week 1 projected scores

Away at homeProjectedTotal
  1. Patriotsat
    Seahawks    22.3–24.847.1
  2. 49ersat
    Rams    24.8–28.953.8
  3. Bearsat
    Panthers    24.4–23.748.0
  4. Buccaneersat
    Bengals    23.0–25.448.4
  5. Saintsat
    Lions    18.1–25.443.5
  6. Billsat
    Texans    22.1–22.844.9
  7. Ravensat
    Colts    23.4–24.748.1
  8. Brownsat
    Jaguars    16.2–23.739.9
  9. Falconsat
    Steelers    21.2–23.644.8
  10. Jetsat
    Titans    19.5–22.241.7
  11. Cardinalsat
    Chargers    19.9–25.545.4
  12. Dolphinsat
    Raiders    21.4–21.643.0
  13. Packersat
    Vikings    24.5–21.345.8
  14. Commandersat
    Eagles    20.1–26.446.5
  15. Cowboysat
    Giants    27.2–27.454.6
  16. Broncosat
    Chiefs    22.1–22.844.9

Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.

Full board with the play and the edge on every game: NFL Week 1 predictions · NFL Week 2 predictions

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Every week, every game picked

All 272 regular-season games, winner and model win probability. Weeks already played show the call the model published before kickoff — no result is claimed here. Kalshi prices fill in as each week’s markets list.

Week 1this week12 favorites · 4 upsetsShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. SEASeahawks over Patriots · pre-game call57%50¢
  2. LARRams over 49ers · pre-game call63%50¢
  3. CHIBears over Panthers51%59.5¢
  4. CINBengals over Buccaneers57%63.5¢
  5. DETLions over Saints65%74.5¢
  6. HOUTexans over BillsUpset53%48.5¢
  7. INDColts over RavensUpset54%39.5¢
  8. JAXJaguars over Browns65%78.5¢
  9. PITSteelers over Falcons57%68.5¢
  10. TENTitans over Jets58%51.5¢
  11. LACChargers over Cardinals66%80.5¢
  12. LVRaiders over Dolphins50%59.5¢
  13. GBPackers over VikingsUpset60%46¢
  14. PHIEagles over Commanders67%67.5¢
  15. NYGGiants over CowboysUpset50%39.5¢
  16. KCChiefs over Broncos53%56.5¢

NFL Week 1 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 216 favorites · 0 upsetsShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. BUFBills over Lions63%61.5¢
  2. ATLFalcons over Panthers61%52.5¢
  3. BALRavens over Saints67%78.5¢
  4. CHIBears over Vikings68%59.5¢
  5. HOUTexans over Bengals65%56.5¢
  6. NEPatriots over Steelers68%63.5¢
  7. GBPackers over Jets64%69¢
  8. TBBuccaneers over Browns63%73.5¢
  9. PHIEagles over Titans60%69.5¢
  10. DENBroncos over Jaguars54%58¢
  11. LACChargers over Raiders67%79.5¢
  12. SEASeahawks over Cardinals68%75¢
  13. DALCowboys over Commanders65%67.5¢
  14. SF49ers over Dolphins69%86.5¢
  15. KCChiefs over Colts56%71.5¢
  16. LARRams over Giants69%77.5¢

NFL Week 2 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 316 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. GBPackers over Falcons66%—
  2. BUFBills over Chargers65%—
  3. CLEBrowns over Panthers55%—
  4. DETLions over Jets70%—
  5. INDColts over Texans52%—
  6. JAXJaguars over Patriots50%—
  7. MIADolphins over Chiefs50%—
  8. NYGGiants over Titans65%—
  9. PITSteelers over Bengals58%—
  10. SEASeahawks over Commanders63%—
  11. SF49ers over Cardinals65%—
  12. TBBuccaneers over Vikings64%—
  13. DALCowboys over Ravens52%—
  14. NOSaints over Raiders67%—
  15. LARRams over Broncos54%—
  16. CHIBears over Eagles56%—

NFL Week 3 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 416 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. CLEBrowns over Steelers53%—
  2. INDColts over Commanders52%—
  3. BALRavens over Titans65%—
  4. BUFBills over Patriots55%—
  5. CHIBears over Jets67%—
  6. JAXJaguars over Bengals51%—
  7. HOUTexans over Cowboys58%—
  8. NYGGiants over Cardinals65%—
  9. LARRams over Eagles51%—
  10. GBPackers over Buccaneers53%—
  11. MINVikings over Dolphins61%—
  12. KCChiefs over Raiders60%—
  13. SEASeahawks over Chargers69%—
  14. SF49ers over Broncos57%—
  15. DETLions over Panthers53%—
  16. NOSaints over Falcons52%—

NFL Week 4 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 515 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. DALCowboys over Buccaneers64%—
  2. JAXJaguars over Eagles61%—
  3. MIADolphins over Bengals50%—
  4. NEPatriots over Raiders81%—
  5. NOSaints over Vikings58%—
  6. NYJJets over Browns52%—
  7. PITSteelers over Colts56%—
  8. HOUTexans over Titans60%—
  9. WASCommanders over Giants57%—
  10. LACChargers over Broncos53%—
  11. DETLions over Cardinals62%—
  12. GBPackers over Bears63%—
  13. SEASeahawks over 49ers64%—
  14. ATLFalcons over Ravens53%—
  15. LARRams over Bills61%—

NFL Week 5 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 614 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. SEASeahawks over Broncos55%—
  2. JAXJaguars over Texans53%—
  3. ATLFalcons over Bears53%—
  4. BALRavens over Browns52%—
  5. INDColts over Titans66%—
  6. NEPatriots over Jets76%—
  7. NYGGiants over Saints62%—
  8. PHIEagles over Panthers66%—
  9. TBBuccaneers over Steelers57%—
  10. LARRams over Cardinals75%—
  11. KCChiefs over Chargers58%—
  12. BUFBills over Raiders77%—
  13. GBPackers over Cowboys62%—
  14. SF49ers over Commanders64%—

NFL Week 6 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 714 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. NEPatriots over Bears53%—
  2. PITSteelers over Saints55%—
  3. ATLFalcons over 49ers54%—
  4. BALRavens over Bengals64%—
  5. CARPanthers over Buccaneers56%—
  6. HOUTexans over Giants65%—
  7. MINVikings over Colts51%—
  8. NYJJets over Dolphins55%—
  9. TENTitans over Browns54%—
  10. DENBroncos over Cardinals57%—
  11. DETLions over Packers56%—
  12. LARRams over Raiders78%—
  13. SEASeahawks over Chiefs68%—
  14. PHIEagles over Cowboys58%—

NFL Week 7 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 814 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. GBPackers over Panthers69%—
  2. BUFBills over Ravens65%—
  3. CINBengals over Titans65%—
  4. DALCowboys over Cardinals67%—
  5. DETLions over Vikings66%—
  6. JAXJaguars over Colts65%—
  7. NYJJets over Raiders64%—
  8. PITSteelers over Browns63%—
  9. TBBuccaneers over Falcons57%—
  10. LARRams over Chargers68%—
  11. DENBroncos over Chiefs63%—
  12. NEPatriots over Dolphins67%—
  13. PHIEagles over Commanders51%—
  14. SEASeahawks over Bears68%—

NFL Week 8 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 915 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. BALRavens over Jaguars54%—
  2. ATLFalcons over Bengals51%—
  3. CARPanthers over Broncos51%—
  4. INDColts over Cowboys53%—
  5. KCChiefs over Jets66%—
  6. DETLions over Dolphins60%—
  7. NOSaints over Browns57%—
  8. PHIEagles over Giants66%—
  9. LARRams over Commanders62%—
  10. LACChargers over Texans50%—
  11. SF49ers over Raiders71%—
  12. NEPatriots over Packers64%—
  13. SEASeahawks over Cardinals76%—
  14. CHIBears over Buccaneers64%—
  15. BUFBills over Vikings63%—

NFL Week 9 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1014 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. NYGGiants over Commanders58%—
  2. NEPatriots over Lions58%—
  3. ATLFalcons over Chiefs58%—
  4. HOUTexans over Browns54%—
  5. GBPackers over Vikings67%—
  6. INDColts over Dolphins66%—
  7. NOSaints over Panthers54%—
  8. BUFBills over Jets67%—
  9. JAXJaguars over Titans62%—
  10. LARRams over Cardinals68%—
  11. SEASeahawks over Raiders79%—
  12. DALCowboys over 49ers61%—
  13. CINBengals over Steelers57%—
  14. BALRavens over Chargers64%—

NFL Week 10 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1113 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. HOUTexans over Colts64%—
  2. BUFBills over Dolphins71%—
  3. CARPanthers over Ravens51%—
  4. CHIBears over Saints67%—
  5. DALCowboys over Titans67%—
  6. DETLions over Buccaneers65%—
  7. KCChiefs over Cardinals66%—
  8. JAXJaguars over Giants53%—
  9. LACChargers over Jets66%—
  10. DENBroncos over Raiders71%—
  11. PHIEagles over Steelers65%—
  12. SF49ers over Vikings62%—
  13. WASCommanders over Bengals56%—

NFL Week 11 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1216 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. LARRams over Packers64%—
  2. DETLions over Bears62%—
  3. DALCowboys over Eagles57%—
  4. BUFBills over Chiefs65%—
  5. PITSteelers over Broncos53%—
  6. CINBengals over Saints63%—
  7. CLEBrowns over Raiders68%—
  8. HOUTexans over Ravens60%—
  9. INDColts over Giants62%—
  10. MIADolphins over Jets61%—
  11. MINVikings over Falcons52%—
  12. JAXJaguars over Titans69%—
  13. ARICardinals over Commanders50%—
  14. SEASeahawks over 49ers56%—
  15. NEPatriots over Chargers61%—
  16. TBBuccaneers over Panthers61%—

NFL Week 12 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1314 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. LARRams over Chiefs68%—
  2. DETLions over Falcons50%—
  3. CHIBears over Jaguars54%—
  4. CLEBrowns over Bengals54%—
  5. GBPackers over Saints58%—
  6. NYGGiants over 49ers52%—
  7. TBBuccaneers over Chargers58%—
  8. TENTitans over Commanders51%—
  9. PHIEagles over Cardinals61%—
  10. DENBroncos over Dolphins69%—
  11. MINVikings over Panthers54%—
  12. NEPatriots over Bills62%—
  13. PITSteelers over Texans51%—
  14. SEASeahawks over Cowboys67%—

NFL Week 13 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1415 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. NEPatriots over Vikings72%—
  2. BALRavens over Buccaneers63%—
  3. CARPanthers over Saints62%—
  4. CLEBrowns over Falcons53%—
  5. DETLions over Titans68%—
  6. CHIBears over Dolphins56%—
  7. DENBroncos over Jets58%—
  8. PHIEagles over Colts64%—
  9. HOUTexans over Commanders50%—
  10. LACChargers over Raiders60%—
  11. CINBengals over Chiefs57%—
  12. SEASeahawks over Giants70%—
  13. LARRams over 49ers54%—
  14. GBPackers over Bills54%—
  15. JAXJaguars over Steelers66%—

NFL Week 14 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1516 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. LACChargers over 49ers53%—
  2. SEASeahawks over Eagles52%—
  3. BUFBills over Bears65%—
  4. CARPanthers over Bengals56%—
  5. GBPackers over Dolphins69%—
  6. HOUTexans over Jaguars55%—
  7. NYGGiants over Browns62%—
  8. PITSteelers over Ravens53%—
  9. TBBuccaneers over Saints63%—
  10. INDColts over Titans52%—
  11. WASCommanders over Falcons55%—
  12. ARICardinals over Jets58%—
  13. LARRams over Cowboys66%—
  14. DENBroncos over Raiders64%—
  15. DETLions over Vikings57%—
  16. NEPatriots over Chiefs61%—

NFL Week 15 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1616 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. PHIEagles over Texans58%—
  2. CHIBears over Packers53%—
  3. BUFBills over Broncos50%—
  4. SEASeahawks over Rams59%—
  5. ATLFalcons over Buccaneers58%—
  6. BALRavens over Browns66%—
  7. INDColts over Bengals60%—
  8. MIADolphins over Chargers51%—
  9. MINVikings over Commanders54%—
  10. NOSaints over Cardinals63%—
  11. NEPatriots over Jets69%—
  12. PITSteelers over Panthers61%—
  13. LVRaiders over Titans51%—
  14. KCChiefs over 49ers53%—
  15. DALCowboys over Jaguars55%—
  16. DETLions over Giants67%—

NFL Week 16 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1716 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. CINBengals over Ravens52%—
  2. ATLFalcons over Saints64%—
  3. SEASeahawks over Panthers63%—
  4. CLEBrowns over Colts52%—
  5. DALCowboys over Giants65%—
  6. JAXJaguars over Commanders67%—
  7. LACChargers over Chiefs57%—
  8. BUFBills over Dolphins64%—
  9. NEPatriots over Broncos68%—
  10. NYJJets over Vikings53%—
  11. LARRams over Buccaneers60%—
  12. PITSteelers over Titans51%—
  13. ARICardinals over Raiders64%—
  14. CHIBears over Lions54%—
  15. SF49ers over Eagles55%—
  16. GBPackers over Texans62%—

NFL Week 17 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Week 1816 games · not priced yetShow picks ▾
WinnerModelKalshi
  1. SF49ers over Cardinals57%—
  2. BALRavens over Steelers63%—
  3. BUFBills over Jets74%—
  4. CARPanthers over Falcons55%—
  5. CINBengals over Browns63%—
  6. DENBroncos over Chargers63%—
  7. GBPackers over Lions60%—
  8. HOUTexans over Titans67%—
  9. INDColts over Jaguars50%—
  10. KCChiefs over Raiders67%—
  11. LARRams over Seahawks56%—
  12. CHIBears over Vikings54%—
  13. NEPatriots over Dolphins74%—
  14. NOSaints over Buccaneers53%—
  15. PHIEagles over Giants51%—
  16. DALCowboys over Commanders50%—

NFL Week 18 predictions → — full board, projected scores and the edge on every game.

Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents, once the market lists. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ — that is a straight-up call, not the play; the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Season simulation: projected records and playoff odds

Full standings & playoff odds →

Where the schedule lands: the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons on the same power ratings, with 2 played games fixed as results. Picked = games the predictor above hands the team straight up (a count of picks, not a record).

AFC

by projected wins
#TeamProj W–LPickedPlayoffs
1Patriots10.3–6.71472%2Bills9.9–7.11365%3Jaguars9.4–7.61158%4Texans9.3–7.71156%5Ravens9.1–7.9954%6Broncos9.1–7.9855%7Colts8.7–8.31046%8Bengals8.6–8.4746%9Steelers8.2–8.81041%10Chiefs8.2–8.8843%11Chargers8.2–8.8842%12Browns7.8–9.2636%13Titans6.9–10.1325%14Dolphins6.8–10.2423%15Jets6.8–10.2423%16Raiders6.0–11.1216%

NFC

by projected wins
#TeamProj W–LPickedPlayoffs
1Seahawks11.1–5.91674%2Rams9.8–7.21659%3Lions9.8–7.21358%4Packers9.6–7.41356%549ers9.5–7.5854%6Eagles9.5–7.51156%7Bears8.8–8.21145%8Cowboys8.8–8.21045%9Falcons8.6–8.4844%10Buccaneers8.3–8.7740%11Saints7.9–9.1734%12Giants7.7–9.3731%13Panthers7.7–9.3632%14Commanders7.6–9.4331%15Vikings7.3–9.8525%16Cardinals6.7–10.3318%

Proj W–L = simulated mean wins and the losses that leaves over 17 games. Playoffs = share of simulated seasons reaching the postseason by any route. Seven teams per conference qualify. Projections, not results.

Every Thursday before kickoff: the week's picks, our number vs Kalshi, and the season outlook. Free.

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NFL schedule predictor 2026 — frequently asked

How does the NFL schedule predictor pick each game?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings — PWR is points per game above an average team on a neutral field, PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. The rating gap plus home field gives an expected margin, the margin gives a home win probability, and the straight-up winner is simply the side above 50%. The projected score splits that margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013–2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

How often does the predictor update?

Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played, so every unplayed game on this page re-prices after each week; the current week also re-runs against the latest Kalshi prices through kickoff. The stamp under the title is the newest model or simulation run on the page — never the time the page was built. Games already played keep the pre-game call they were published with, labelled as such, rather than being rewritten after the fact.

What is the difference between the straight-up winner and the play?

The straight-up winner is the side with the higher model win probability — the team the predictor expects to win. The play is different: it is the side where the model probability and the Kalshi price disagree by 5 points or more, and it is routinely the underdog. A row tagged Upset is a straight-up winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. Each game links to its matchup page, which shows the play, the model line and the edge against the market.

What is the 2026 season simulation?

The season table is the mean of 10,000 simulated seasons run on the same power ratings. Each simulated season plays the full 17-game schedule with home field, rating uncertainty and the real NFL tiebreaker procedure, and games already played are fixed as results (2 so far). Projected W–L is the average wins across those seasons and the losses that leaves; Playoffs is the share of seasons in which the team reached the postseason. "Picked" is a different number: how many games on the schedule the game-by-game predictor above hands that team straight up — a count of picks, not a projected record.

Keep exploring

Full standings & playoff odds →NFL predictions →Weekly schedule →Win totals vs Kalshi →Power rankings →This week’s edges →

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