Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Eagles by 6.5 (67% to win); the Eagles won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game model had the Eagles by 6.5 (67% to win). The Eagles won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Eagles: -1c — we archived the Eagles at 69c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 68c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 17.2pp on Eagles moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Philadelphia managed ten first downs, lost time of possession by seven minutes, and won because Jalen Hurts threw three touchdowns on twenty-five attempts and Dallas Goedert caught two of them. Washington scored with sixty-one seconds left and went for two down eight — the same maths New Orleans faced in Detroit, and the same result.
Commanders 22—Eagles 24
Final✓ Call hitThe model had Philadelphia at 67.2%, the strongest read it held on any Sunday game, and Philadelphia won — so the chip is a hit. It is the softest hit on the board: a 67% favorite that won by two points on ten first downs is not a number that was validated, it is a number that survived. No Kalshi position was published on this game — there is no nfl_weekly_edges row — so there is nothing in the ledger to grade, and the honest reading is that a 67% model against a market that never moved off Philadelphia -238 produced no disagreement worth publishing. The market’s only real adjustment was the total, down three points from 46.5 to 43.5, and the game landed on forty-six. That is the third total on the slate where the closing move pointed the wrong way. Three of twelve is noise. It is also three more data points in the same direction as the Bears game and the Bills game, and the handoff treats it as a question, not an answer.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 3 to 43.5; the game landed on 46.
Q2
Hurts found Dallas Goedert from seventeen and Dontayvion Wicks from nine inside eight minutes to turn a 3-0 deficit into a 14-3 lead. Wicks finished with two catches for seventy-three, a long of sixty-four, and the score. Philadelphia gained 318 yards on six a play.
Q4
Washington had cut it to 17-16 on a Stefon Diggs touchdown with under ten minutes to play. Hurts answered with a forty-three-yard throw to Goedert for 24-16. Goedert caught four for seventy-seven and both of his touchdowns were the ones that mattered.
Q4
Philadelphia recorded ten first downs to Washington’s twenty and held the ball for 26:40. Washington converted both fourth downs and five of fifteen third downs and ran twenty more plays. Neither team turned the ball over once — the only clean game on the Sunday slate in that respect.
Q4
Jayden Daniels found Williams with 1:01 left to make it 24-22 and Washington went for two rather than kick to stay within one score. The pass was incomplete. Daniels finished eighteen of thirty-four for 164 at 4.8 an attempt with two touchdowns; Drew Stevens had earlier had an extra point blocked, which is what turned a one-point game into a two-point one.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Commanders at Eagles · ESPN game page — Commanders at Eagles · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Washington's offensive line was a top-20 unit until Laremy Tunsil went to injured reserve; PFF now ranks it last in the league. Philadelphia answers with one of the two best lines in football and a defense that is largely the group that won the Super Bowl. The board above passes on this game because the model and the market already agree — what follows is why the game is expected to look the way it is priced, not an argument with the price.
Commanders protection · Eagles pass rush
PFF is explicit about the cause: before Tunsil's injury the Commanders sat inside the top 20. With him on injured reserve, Brandon Coleman starts at left tackle against Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis inside and Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith Jr. on the edges — Jonathan Greenard, the Eagles' offseason edge signing, is ruled out after missing camp with a pectoral injury. Right guard Sam Cosmi is playing well, but he is the exception on this line right now, not the rule.
Eagles protection · Commanders pass rush
Lane Johnson posted his sixth straight season with an elite pass-blocking grade and allowed almost nothing last year. The full starting five is back — Mailata, Dickerson, Jurgens, Steen, Johnson — despite the departure of longtime line coach Jeff Stoutland. Washington's answer is credible: Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw inside, and Odafe Oweh on a nine-figure free-agent deal off the edge. No unit-wide 2026 grade for that front was found, which is why the gap here is stated and not measured.
Eagles pass offense · Commanders secondary
Brown was traded to New England in June. DeVonta Smith is the unquestioned lead receiver for the first time since his rookie year, alongside free-agent addition Marquise Brown and rookie Makai Lemon in the slot. Washington will be without Trey Amos, its intended top corner, who went to injured reserve at cutdowns — so Mike Sainristil, Amik Robertson and Rasul Douglas all project to play, with the outside pairing still unconfirmed in reporting.
Commanders pass offense · Eagles secondary
Washington signed Diggs to stop defenses rolling coverage toward McLaurin on every snap. Philadelphia's corner group is the one piece of this defense reporting is not sure about: Quinyon Mitchell is a confirmed starter and Cooper DeJean holds the slot, but the official depth chart lists Kelee Ringo beside Mitchell while beat projections have Riq Woolen outside, and one outlet flagged the group after a disappointing preseason.
Source: Eagles On SI — the Commanders the Eagles need to stop
Eagles run offense · Commanders run defense
Barkley came down from his 2024 pace last season but still cleared a thousand yards behind a line ranked second in the league. Washington was one of the three worst run defenses in football by yards per carry. Even a down year for Barkley individually leaves this as the most lopsided pairing on the field, and it is the one that dictates whether Washington's pass rush ever gets to pin its ears back.
Quarterbacks · play-calling
Daniels played seven games last season before elbow, knee and hamstring injuries ended his year; this is his first meaningful action since Dec. 7, 2025. He faces a Jalen Hurts offense calling plays through a new coordinator, Sean Mannion, who has never called plays in the NFL and is Hurts' seventh coordinator since 2020. That is a genuine variable on the Philadelphia side — it just is not a health variable, and Daniels' rust is.
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: PFF — 2026 NFL offensive line rankings · Commanders — Week 1 depth chart · Commanders — Week 1 injury report · Eagles — Week 1 injury report · Eagles On SI — the Commanders the Eagles need to stop · Philadelphia Inquirer — 2026 season preview · Inside The Iggles — Week 1 depth chart analysis · Bleeding Green Nation — Eagles depth chart entering Week 1
WAS
-1.5
PHI
+2.4
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Commanders
33%
model win prob
Eagles
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
27%
Madden 27
73%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Eagles −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 8. The model has the Eagles by 6.5 (67%) off a +2.4 to -1.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.7-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 8, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Commanders'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-18 in the Eagles' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Commanders won 24-17 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Eagles here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI contract implies 50% for the Eagles against our 67% — a 17.2-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Eagles as the value side.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 67% for the Eagles. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 100% 100c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Washington Commanders 22, Philadelphia Eagles 24 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Eagles by 6.5 (67% to win), and the Eagles won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Eagles by 6.5 points, a 67% win probability over the Commanders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 8. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Eagles by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Eagles YES is quoted around 50c against our 67% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Washington Commanders visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI. The Eagles YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 67%. That is a 17.2pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Eagles at 67% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 67% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +17.2 points. Model 67% vs market 50% on PHI. We rate it attack, sized at 8.6% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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They run it back in Week 8. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Commanders–Eagles, Week 8 →
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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