Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
As of September 7, 2026, Kalshi implies 68% for the Eagles in Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Week 1 2026, while our model has the Eagles by 6.5 (67% to win) — a 0.3pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 1 · 2026-09-07No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
WAS
-1.5
PHI
+2.4
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Commanders
33%
model win prob
Eagles
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
27%
Madden 27
73%
Madden 27
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Power-rating comparison
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Commanders vs Eagles: where the prop prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 40+ rush yds | 47.5¢ | 49% | -1.2¢ | over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · DK 53.5¢ |
| Dallas Goedert | 70+ rec yds | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Dallas Goedert | 90+ rec yds | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| Dallas Goedert | 100+ rec yds | 3.5¢ | off-ladder | — | Kalshi only |
| DeVonta Smith | 6+ rec | 44.5¢ | 46% | -1.0¢ | over · BetRivers 45.9¢under · ProphetX 57.3¢ |
| Jalen Hurts | 2+ pass TDs | 44.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jalen Hurts | 3+ pass TDs | 18.5¢ | — | — | Kalshi only |
| Jalen Hurts | 250+ pass yds | 27.5¢ | off-ladder | — | over · Kalshi 30.4¢ |
All 42 priced prop strikes for this game →+ 85 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
NFC East math: Commanders at Eagles
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 8. The model has the Eagles by 6.5 (67%) off a +2.4 to -1.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.7-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 8, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Commanders'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-18 in the Eagles' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Commanders won 24-17 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Eagles here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI contract implies 68% for the Eagles against our 67% — a 0.3-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Eagles on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI
- Market-implied (Eagles)
- 68c · 68%
- Our model (Eagles)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- -0.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 68c on the Eagles is an implied 68% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 67%, a 0.3pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Commanders vs Eagles trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 68% 68c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 67% 67c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 68% 68c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 68% 68c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Commanders vs Eagles — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Eagles in Week 1?
Our power-rating model favors the Eagles by 6.5 points, a 67% win probability over the Commanders. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI market implies 68% for the Eagles — a 0.3pp agreement with the model.
How much does a NFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 8. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Eagles by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Commanders vs Eagles?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Eagles YES is quoted around 68c against our 67% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Eagles host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
What does the model project for the Eagles and Commanders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Commanders vs Eagles?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI. The Eagles YES contract sits around 68c, which is an implied 68% — against our model's 67%. That is a 0.3pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Commanders vs Eagles on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 1 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Eagles?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Eagles at 67% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Commanders moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 33% against a market price implying 33%, an edge of +0.3 points. Model 33% vs market 32% on WAS. We pass — no position.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 8. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Commanders–Eagles, Week 8 →
More Week 1 matchups
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