Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Cardinals by 4.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 17 2026 — 64% to win, and Cardinals 30th of 32, Raiders 32nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LVARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 59c or below (or Raiders at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-5.8
ARI
-3.6
Raiders
36%
model win prob
Cardinals
64%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LVARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 59c or below, or the Raiders at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Week 17 warning: what the Cardinals line does not know
Week 17 is where the standings start doing the talking, and the model does not know what either team will still be playing for. It prices the Cardinals by 4.5 (64%) from ratings alone — -3.6 for the Cardinals, -5.8 for the Raiders. Late-season numbers are the least reliable of the year for exactly that reason: a team that has locked its seed and a team with nothing left both play differently than the ratings assume. Treat this as a starting point, then check what is actually at stake.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 6.4 projected wins for the Cardinals against 5.6 for the Raiders, favored in 3 and 1 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 17th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Cardinals' entire schedule.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Cardinals grade -2.9 on that side of the ball (29th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.1 (32nd) — 1.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th), a 1.2-point gap.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Cardinals won 29-23 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 3-1. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Cardinals here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LVARI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cardinals 64%, Raiders 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cardinals contracts a buy at 59c or below and Raiders contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Cardinals in Week 17?
Our power-rating model favors the Cardinals by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Raiders. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Raiders 32nd (-5.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LVARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Do Week 17 lines account for teams resting starters?
Ours does not. The model prices the Cardinals by 4.5 from 2026 power ratings and home field, with no knowledge of playoff seeding, elimination, or who is being held out. Late-season contracts often move on exactly that information, so treat this number as the ratings baseline and check what each team still has to play for before taking a position.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03LVARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 59c or below, or the Raiders at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Cardinals?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Cardinals at 64% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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