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Home/NFL/Week 9/Giants vs Eagles
Gridiron EdgeWeek 9 · 2026NFC East rivalry

Giants vs Eagles Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8

Updated · market price

QB-adjusted: Tanner McKee starts for Eagles · J.J. McCarthy starts for Giants

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Quick Answer

As of October 29, 2026, Kalshi implies 45% for the Eagles in New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Giants by 1.5 (55% to win) — a 0.3pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Giants by 2.5 against a market line of Giants by 1.5 — a 1.2-point lean toward the Giants, graded separately from any position.

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Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 9 · 2026-10-29

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Giants moneylineModel 55% vs market 55% on NYG.55c55%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

PMP · WK 9 MODEL LINE
Sun, Nov 8
AWAY NYG -0.7
vs NYG -1.5
HOME PHI -1.6
Fair (books) · PHI 45% home win prob
Kalshi · PHI 45¢ yes mid
Edge -0.3pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Philadelphia, PA PASS — no position

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 9 card free, every game priced against the market.

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Giants

55%

fair value (books)

Eagles

45%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

27%

Madden 27

73%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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The Ladder — Giants at Eagles How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Giants at EaglesSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Giants at Eagles Kalshi spread ladder for Week 9: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Giants–Eagles spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Giants vs Eagles power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New York Giants-0.720thAverage
    Philadelphia Eagles-1.623rdAverage

    Giants and Eagles season outlook

    NYGPHI
    Average wins9.86.6
    Make playoffs66%12%
    Win division60%10%
    Win Super Bowl3.2%0.7%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Giants vs Eagles — player pages

    All players →

    Saquon Barkley

    RB

    Malik Nabers

    WR

    DeVonta Smith

    WR

    Cam Skattebo

    RB

    Dallas Goedert

    TE

    Makai Lemon

    WR

    Isaiah Likely

    TE

    Hollywood Brown

    Tanner McKee

    QB

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    NFC East math: Giants at Eagles

    How this read is built →

    New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Giants by 2.5 (57%) off a -1.6 to -0.7 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: both teams are without their usual starting quarterback (J.J. McCarthy and Tanner McKee start), and our QB-out terms net 4.3 points toward the Giants — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.7 (13th of 32) against a Eagles defense at -1.2 (18th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Giants defense (-1.4, 19th), a 0.7-point gap.

    On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7) — 3.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Giants'.

    One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 33-15 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Eagles won 38-20 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Giants at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI contract implies 45% for the Eagles against a fair value (books) of 45% — a 0.3-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.

    Full division picture on the NFC East hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Giants vs Eagles on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI
    Market-implied (Eagles)
    45c · 45%
    Fair value — books (Eagles)
    45%
    Fair value vs market
    -0.3pp

    Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 45c on the Eagles is an implied 45% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 45%, a 0.3pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Giants vs Eagles line history

    The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Eagles −5.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Giants −1.5. On Kalshi the Giants trade at 55¢ to win, a 55% implied chance.

    BookEarliest line we archivedNowSpread trend
    DraftKingsEagles −5.5 · O/U 44.5Sep 13Giants −1.5 · O/U 40.5
    FanDuelGiants −1.5 · O/U 39.5Oct 27Giants −1.5 · O/U 39.5
    CaesarsEagles −6 · O/U 45.5Sep 13Giants −1.5 · O/U 39.5
    BetRiversGiants −1.5 · O/U 39Oct 27Giants −1.5 · O/U 39
    NovigGiants −1.5 · —Oct 27Giants −1.5 · —
    Kalshia contract, not a spreadGiants 55¢ to win

    Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.

    Where Giants vs Eagles trades Why the venues differ →

    3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

    VenueEaglesTrade
    Kalshi45% 45cTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig46% 46cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book44% 44cOpen Polymarket US →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract45% 45cOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contract45% 45cOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

    Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Giants at Eagles

    Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 1:55 AM ET

    Game linesKalshi1:55 AM ETPolymarket USPolymarketPartner2:05 AM ETBest price
    Giants to win56¢57.7¢ after fees56.5¢58.2¢ after feesEven
    Eagles to win46¢47.7¢ after fees45¢46.7¢ after feesPolymarket US1¢ less
    This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →

    Sponsored by Polymarket US

    18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

    Polymarket US lists 396 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).

    Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.

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    Watch the breakdown: Giants vs Eagles

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    Giants vs Eagles — frequently asked

    Who will win Eagles vs Giants?

    The market line has the Giants at 55% to beat the Eagles in Week 9.

    Who is favored in Giants vs Eagles in Week 9?

    The market line has the Giants by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Eagles (our model's own line: Giants by 2.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI market implies 45% for the Eagles — a 0.3pp agreement with the market line.

    How much does a NFC East result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Giants by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Giants vs Eagles?

    The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Eagles YES is quoted around 45c against a fair value (books) of 45%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Eagles host the Giants?

    New York Giants visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.

    What does the model project for the Eagles and Giants this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Giants', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Giants vs Eagles?

    Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI. The Eagles YES contract sits around 45c, which is an implied 45% — against our books-anchored fair value of 45%. That is a 0.3pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

    Can you trade Giants vs Eagles on Kalshi?

    Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08NYGPHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Giants?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Giants at 57% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

    Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

    What happens on Kalshi if Giants vs Eagles ends in a tie?

    Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.

    Is Giants moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 55%, an edge of +0.3 points. Model 55% vs market 55% on NYG. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Eagles hub →Giants hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 9 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Giants–Eagles, Week 18 →

    After this one

    Giants: Week 10 vs CommandersModel line →Eagles: Week 11 vs SteelersModel line →

    More Week 9 matchups

    Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1Bengals at FalconsModel: Bengals −2.5Broncos at PanthersModel: evenCowboys at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Jets at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Lions at DolphinsModel: Lions −2.5Browns at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Rams at CommandersModel: Rams −2.5Texans at ChargersModel: Texans −1Raiders at 49ersModel: 49ers −9.5Packers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −4Cardinals at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −11Buccaneers at BearsModel: Bears −5Bills at VikingsModel: Vikings −1

    Full Week 9 board →Next: NFL Week 10 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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