Chicago Bears: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of Β· prices live
The prediction-market read on the Bears: our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.9 wins in 2026 (5th of 32, Playoff tier; model 10.8), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC North standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions βNFL Week 8 predictions β early lines βWeek 6 results β
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 10 Β· market-implied 10 Β· PMP 7. Experts vs. market on the Bears β
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Chicago Bears
Β± 1.5 Β· 5th of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins β LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG β₯2.0 Β· HIGH β₯1.5 Β· MODERATE β₯1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at Β±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model β wins already banked plus the rest of the season β reads 10.8. No single rung sits near 50Β’.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board β Informational only β verify the market and trade responsibly.
π Deep-dive: Bears win total: the rare stay-away β Chicago can improve and still post a worse record
Embed this team card on your site
A live card locked to the Chicago Bears β projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" β for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300Γ250) and Leaderboard (728Γ90) sizes are IAB standard ad units β paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width Β· 560Γ320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/bears/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chicago Bears β model vs Kalshi β PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chicago Bears 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/bears?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar Β· 320Γ380
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/bears/sidebar" width="320" height="380" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chicago Bears β model vs Kalshi β PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chicago Bears 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/bears?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU Β· ad slot Β· 300Γ250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/bears/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chicago Bears β model vs Kalshi β PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chicago Bears 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/bears?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard Β· ad slot Β· 728Γ90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-team-card/bears/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chicago Bears β model vs Kalshi β PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chicago Bears 2026 win total and odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/teams/bears?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EAβs Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Our sim and the Madden simulation land on opposite sides of the 10.73 market line. They disagree with each other, so this is a market to watch rather than one to build a position in.
Our model is far higher on the Bears than Madden is β 3rd on play-by-play versus 12th on talent, a 9-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position β the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 10.73
+8.2pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 10.86 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 10.79 Β± 1.53). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder β Bears
All ladders βThe season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 11+ wins at 61Β’. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthinβoutside band
- 16+winsthinβoutside band
- 15+winsβoutside band
- 14+winsβoutside band
- 13+winsβoutside band
- 12+winsββ
- Kalshi's 50% line Β· it expects 11β12
- 11+winsββ
- 10+winsβoutside band
- 9+winsβoutside band
- 8+winsβoutside band
- 7+winsthinβoutside band
- 6+winsthinβoutside band
- 5+winsthinβoutside band
- 4+winsthinβoutside band
- 3+winsthinβoutside band
- 2+winsthinβoutside band
- 1+winsthinβoutside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins over 10.73
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.86 (model 10.79), the Madden 27 simulation 9.04, against 10.73 market-implied wins β a +0.13-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG β₯2.0 Β· HIGH β₯1.5 Β· MODERATE β₯1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 12 at Lions
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided β and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read β
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 β verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +3.4 ranks 3rd of 32 (Playoff tier). How Bears rank on the points scale β Re-weight the model yourself β
Methodology: DAEPA model docs β (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon β the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that gameβs full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range β a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, Ο=14.4 β those numbers plus the 5-2 already banked sum to the model's 10.8 wins; the 10.9-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
The Oracles on this market
Bears player pages
All players βOne page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFC North ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold β and four internal reads a click away.
Vikings
10.9
+0.1
Bears
10.9
+3.4
Packers
9.9
+1.8
Lions
9.3
+0.9
Model has the Bears 2nd in the NFC North. Division hub β
Division odds: Bears 25Β’ to win the NFC North on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works βOur current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) β a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
10.9
10,000 seasons Β· 75% reach 10+
Make playoffs
78%
1% win 6 or fewer
Win division
28%
9% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
7.6%
4th of 32 Β· 14% reach it
The Bears draw a 0.519 opponent win rate β the 4th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board βA second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model β which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
12
81.7 composite Β· QB 90
Simulated wins
9.0
44% reach 10+
Playoffs
46%
21% win division
Super Bowl
3.2%
SoS 0.499 (19th hardest)
Our model is far higher on the Bears than Madden is β 3rd on play-by-play versus 12th on talent, a 9-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Madden-only inputs β no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation β
Bears 2026 β frequently asked
What is the Chicago Bears win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 10.7 wins for the Bears in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 10.9 wins β a 0.1-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Bears rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Bears sit at a +3.4-point power rating β 3rd of 32 β in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +2.1, defense +0.9, special teams +0.4) is the input behind every Bears prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Chicago Bears games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Bears season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets β available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Bears in for 2026?
The Bears play in the NFC North, alongside Lions, Packers, Vikings. Our model has them projected 2nd in the NFC North on 10.9 expected wins.
Get Bears edges + the daily NFL prediction-market read β free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Bears markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions β Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions β early lines β Next weekβs slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results β Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds β β Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker β β Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 β Kalshi vs Polymarket β β Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Geneβs longshots
- Grok fantasy football β connect the draft desk β β One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server β the in-season desk, inside your AI agent β β Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges β free tools, no key
- MCP setup β connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute β β One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide β the 61-page book β β All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report β 64 games, 32 teams, priced β β Weeks 1β4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi β the edge board β β Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market β β All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions β every game vs the market β β Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals β model vs Kalshi β β All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 β projected records + playoff odds β β All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 β every game picked β β Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges β where the model disagrees β β Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges β β Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures β β Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges β β Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets β β How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings β the model methodology anchor β β All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant β the same model, in your AI agent β β Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger β how accurate is it, actually β β The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool β build your own PWR board β β Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator β β Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market β where we disagree β β Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report β