Chicago Bears: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
The prediction-market read on the Bears: our DAEPA model projects 8.8 wins in 2026 (15th of 32, Average tier), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC North standing below.
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Model projection
8.8
±2.0 wins
Kalshi market
—
KXNFLWINS-27CHI
Edge
—
wins
Win-total market not open yet
Kalshi lists the Bears season win-total ladder closer to the season — this fills in automatically when the market opens. The model projection above is live now.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Overall
+0.9
10th · Average
Offense
+1.5
points/gm
Defense
-0.8
points/gm
Special teams
+0.3
points/gm
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (66.5% backtested game accuracy across 5,934 games).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Win probability is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=13.5. The sum of these 17 numbers is the 8.8-win projection above.
NFC North projected standing
Division hub →Bears 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Chicago Bears win total for 2026?
Our DAEPA power-rating model projects 8.8 wins for the Bears in 2026, summing single-game win probabilities across all 17 regular-season games. Kalshi's KXNFLWINS-27 season win-total ladder for the Bears is not fully open yet — when it lists, we compare the two and flag the edge.
Where do the Bears rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Bears sit at a +0.9-point power rating — 10th of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense +1.5, defense -0.8, special teams +0.3) is the input behind every Bears prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Chicago Bears games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Bears season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, listed one to two weeks before kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Bears in for 2026?
The Bears play in the NFC North, alongside Lions, Packers, Vikings. Our model has them projected 3rd in the NFC North on 8.8 expected wins.
Get Bears edges + the daily NFL prediction-market read — free to your inbox.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.