2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 1 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL MVP Futures Edges
2026 season · QB-only model vs. Kalshi KXNFLMVP markets
Eligibility: QB on a team with P(wins ≥ 11) ≥ 0.25. Probabilities normalized to sum 1.0 across the eligible field; ineligible QBs surface as NO-side edges where the market still has them in the field.
| Quarterback | Our P(MVP) | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Side | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 0.0% | 10¢ | -10.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Sam Darnold | 11.4% | 2¢ | +9.4pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Justin Herbert | 0.0% | 9¢ | -9.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Joe Burrow | 0.0% | 9¢ | -9.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Drake Maye | 14.7% | 6¢ | +8.7pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Jared Goff | 9.5% | 1¢ | +8.5pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Trevor Lawrence | 10.8% | 3¢ | +7.8pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Jalen Hurts | 9.7% | 2¢ | +7.7pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Patrick Mahomes | 0.0% | 6¢ | -6.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Caleb Williams | 0.0% | 6¢ | -6.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Jordan Love | 7.5% | 2¢ | +5.5pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Brock Purdy | 0.0% | 4¢ | -4.0pp | NO | LOW | Trade |
| Dak Prescott | 8.4% | 5¢ | +3.4pp | YES | LOW | Trade |
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0% | 3¢ | -3.0pp | NO | LOW | Trade |
Our P(MVP) — model probability after win-gate + fantasy-points normalization · Market Price — Kalshi YES price in cents · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price (positive ⇒ underpriced YES; negative ⇒ overpriced YES) · Side — direction our model recommends · Tier— confidence based on |edge|: STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH 8–12pp · MODERATE 5–8pp · LOW <5pp
Full methodology → · Why we're long the QBs Kalshi has at pennies →
NFL MVP markets — FAQ
How does NFL MVP trading work on Kalshi?
Each candidate has a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win MVP and $0 otherwise; the price in cents is the market-implied probability. Kalshi lists the MVP race (KXNFLMVP) year-round, and the field is overwhelmingly quarterbacks — historically the award goes to a QB the large majority of the time, which the prices reflect.
Why do NFL MVP market prices move so much?
MVP is a narrative-driven award decided by voters, so a few standout games, an injury, or a team’s win streak can swing a candidate’s probability sharply. That volatility is exactly where a model-vs-market edge appears — when the market overreacts to a hot streak, the contract can get mispriced relative to season-long production.
Are NFL MVP markets available year-round?
Yes. The MVP contract trades through the off-season and the full regular season until the award is announced. Off-season prices are thin and move on roster and depth-chart news; they sharpen once games start and statistical production accumulates.
NFL Futures Markets
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale