Gridiron Edge refreshes May 1 with 2026 season rosters
In the meantime, check the NFL Draft board — live Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings odds for every top pick.
NFL MVP Futures Edges
2026 season · QB-only model vs. Kalshi KXNFLMVP markets
Eligibility: QB on a team with P(wins ≥ 11) ≥ 0.25. Probabilities normalized to sum 1.0 across the eligible field; ineligible QBs surface as NO-side edges where the market still has them in the field.
| Quarterback | Our P(MVP) | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Side | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 16.0% | 3¢ | +13.0pp | YES | STRONG | Trade |
| Justin Herbert | 0.0% | 11¢ | -11.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13.6% | 3¢ | +10.6pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Drake Maye | 15.4% | 5¢ | +10.4pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Joe Burrow | 0.0% | 10¢ | -10.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Lamar Jackson | 0.0% | 9¢ | -9.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Jared Goff | 9.0% | 1¢ | +8.0pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Matthew Stafford | 14.4% | 8¢ | +6.4pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Caleb Williams | 0.0% | 6¢ | -6.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Patrick Mahomes | 0.0% | 5¢ | -5.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Dak Prescott | 0.0% | 5¢ | -5.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Brock Purdy | 0.0% | 4¢ | -4.0pp | NO | LOW | Trade |
| Jordan Love | 6.6% | 3¢ | +3.6pp | YES | LOW | Trade |
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0% | 3¢ | -3.0pp | NO | LOW | Trade |
Our P(MVP) — model probability after win-gate + fantasy-points normalization · Market Price — Kalshi YES price in cents · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price (positive ⇒ underpriced YES; negative ⇒ overpriced YES) · Side — direction our model recommends · Tier— confidence based on |edge|: STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH 8–12pp · MODERATE 5–8pp · LOW <5pp
Full methodology → · Why we're long the QBs Kalshi has at pennies →