2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 6 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 6 game priced against the live prediction market.
NFL MVP Futures Edges
Board as of · prices live
2026 season · QB-only model vs. Kalshi KXNFLMVP markets
Eligibility: QB on a team with P(wins ≥ 11) ≥ 0.25. Probabilities normalized to sum 1.0 across the eligible field; ineligible QBs surface as NO-side edges where the market still has them in the field.
| Quarterback | Our P(MVP) | Market Price | Edge ↓ | Side | Tier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 0.0% | 26¢ | -26.0pp | NO | STRONG | Trade |
| Sam Darnold | 13.6% | 1¢ | +12.6pp | YES | STRONG | Trade |
| Josh Allen | 13.8% | 25¢ | -11.2pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Patrick Mahomes | 0.0% | 10¢ | -10.0pp | NO | HIGH | Trade |
| Matthew Stafford | 10.4% | 1¢ | +9.4pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Drake Maye | 12.1% | 4¢ | +8.1pp | YES | HIGH | Trade |
| Jordan Love | 8.2% | 1¢ | +7.2pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Jalen Hurts | 8.1% | 1¢ | +7.1pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Joe Burrow | 0.0% | 7¢ | -7.0pp | NO | MODERATE | Trade |
| Lamar Jackson | 8.1% | 2¢ | +6.1pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
| Jared Goff | 9.0% | 3¢ | +6.0pp | YES | MODERATE | Trade |
Our P(MVP) — model probability after win-gate + fantasy-points normalization · Market Price — Kalshi YES price in cents · Edge — model prob minus Kalshi price (positive ⇒ underpriced YES; negative ⇒ overpriced YES) · Side — direction our model recommends · Tier — confidence based on |edge|: STRONG ≥12pp · HIGH 8–12pp · MODERATE 5–8pp · LOW <5pp
Full methodology → · Why we're long the QBs Kalshi has at pennies →
Team strength behind the MVP prices
The MVP gate is a team number — a QB needs P(wins ≥ 11) ≥ 0.25 to be eligible. All 32 PWR ratings, ranked, with tier and week-over-week movement.
NFL MVP markets — FAQ
How does NFL MVP trading work on Kalshi?
Each candidate has a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if they win MVP and $0 otherwise; the price in cents is the market-implied probability. Kalshi lists the MVP race (KXNFLMVP) year-round, and the field is overwhelmingly quarterbacks — historically the award goes to a QB the large majority of the time, which the prices reflect.
Why do NFL MVP market prices move so much?
MVP is a narrative-driven award decided by voters, so a few standout games, an injury, or a team’s win streak can swing a candidate’s probability sharply. That volatility is exactly where a model-vs-market edge appears — when the market overreacts to a hot streak, the contract can get mispriced relative to season-long production.
Are NFL MVP markets available year-round?
Yes. The MVP contract trades through the off-season and the full regular season until the award is announced. Off-season prices are thin and move on roster and depth-chart news; they sharpen once games start and statistical production accumulates.
NFL Futures Markets
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale