Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 1.5 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 15 2026 — 55% to win, and the second AFC South meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20JACHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 50c or below (or Jaguars at 40c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
HOU
+1.8
Jaguars
45%
model win prob
Texans
55%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20JACHOUhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 50c or below, or the Jaguars at 40c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Jaguars and Texans already played in Week 6, and now the Jaguars make the return trip in Week 15. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.8 against +2.7, plus home field, equals the Texans by 1.5 (55%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Jaguars grade 0.0 on that side of the ball (9th of 32) against a Texans offense at -1.3 (26th) — 1.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Jaguars offense (+1.8, 9th) meets the Texans defense (+2.4, 1st), a 0.6-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 6, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC South race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.2 projected wins for the Texans against 9.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Jaguars'. Nothing on the Jaguars' schedule projects harder than this one.
One team has owned this series: the Texans are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Texans won 36-29 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Texans at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC20JACHOU is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 55% / 45% — the tradable window is narrow: Texans at 50c or below, Jaguars at 40c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Texans in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Texans by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Jaguars. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+1.8) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20JACHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 6. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Texans by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20JACHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 50c or below, or the Jaguars at 40c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.2 wins (favored in 11) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Texans?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Texans at 55% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 6. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jaguars–Texans, Week 6 →
More Week 15 matchups
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