Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
Friday, December 25, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 1.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 16 2026 — 54% to win, and a NFC West game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 49c or below (or Rams at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LA
+6.3
SEA
+5.2
Rams
46%
model win prob
Seahawks
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 49c or below, or the Rams at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
NFC West math: Rams at Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Seahawks by 1.5 (54%) off a +5.2 to +6.3 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Seahawks defense at +1.8 (4th) — 2.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 0.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.8 projected wins for the Seahawks against 11.3 for the Rams, favored in 16 and 16 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Rams'. Nothing on the Rams' schedule projects harder than this one.
Scheduling note: this is a Friday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Seahawks at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Seahawks at 49c or below, Rams at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Seahawks in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Rams. The Seahawks rate 3rd of 32 (+5.2) and the Rams 1st (+6.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 49c or below, or the Rams at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Seattle Seahawks on Friday, December 25, 2026 — a Friday game in NFL Week 16, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.8 wins (favored in 16) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16). This game ranks 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Seahawks?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Seahawks at 54% over the Rams sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Rams–Seahawks, Week 18 →
More Week 16 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.