Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
Updated · model ratings
Friday, December 25, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 3 in Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 16 2026 — 59% to win, and a NFC West game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Seahawks at 54c or below (or Rams at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAR
+5.1
SEA
+5.5
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Rams
41%
model win prob
Seahawks
59%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
51%
Madden 27
49%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Seahawks at 54c or below, or the Rams at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Rams at Seahawks
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Seahawks −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsSeahawks −10.5 → Seahawks −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
NFC West math: Rams at Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Seahawks by 3 (59%) off a +5.5 to +5.1 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a Seahawks defense at +1.9 (2nd) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 1.7-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.9 projected wins for the Seahawks against 10.6 for the Rams, favored in 16 and 16 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 6th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Rams'. Nothing on the Rams' schedule projects harder than this one.
Scheduling note: this is a Friday game — one of 3 that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Seahawks at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Seahawks 59%, Rams 41%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Seahawks contracts a buy at 54c or below and Rams contracts a buy at 36c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Seahawks)
- 59%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Seahawks at 54c or below, or the Rams at 36c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Rams vs Seahawks trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Rams vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Seahawks in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Rams, for a projected score of Seahawks 25, Rams 23 on a ratings-implied 48.0-point total. The Seahawks rate 2nd of 32 (+5.5) and the Rams 3rd (+5.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 3 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Seahawks?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 54c or below, or the Rams at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Seattle Seahawks on Friday, December 25, 2026 — a Friday game in NFL Week 16, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.9 wins (favored in 16) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs Seahawks?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Seahawks at 54c or below or the Rams at 36c or below, off a 3-point line.
Can you trade Rams vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC25LARSEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Seahawks?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Seahawks at 59% over the Rams sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Rams–Seahawks, Week 18 →
More Week 16 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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