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Gridiron Edge

NFL Schedule & Predictions This Week (Week 8)

Updated · market prices

Quick Answer

As of October 31, 2026, Week 8 has 13 games left; straight up the model calls 13 market favorites and 0 upsets. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 3 of 13 games; the widest gap is Dolphins at 27% to win versus Kalshi's 24¢.

NFL Week 8 predictions →

Full board, the model’s lean and the edge on every game: NFL Week 8 predictions · NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines

NFL picks this week, straight up (Week 8)

Week 8 picks straight up: Packers over Panthers (pre-game call), Bills over Ravens, Bengals over Titans, Cowboys over Cardinals, Lions over Vikings, Jaguars over Colts, Jets over Raiders, Steelers over Browns, Buccaneers over Falcons, Rams over Chargers, Chiefs over Broncos, Patriots over Dolphins, Commanders over Eagles, Seahawks over Bears.

Every week of the 2026 NFL season, each with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced) beside the prediction-market line. Pick a week to see all its games, our number vs. Kalshi, with the edge on each.

This week's straight-up winners

Kalshi has priced 13 of these 14 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction — that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 3.1 points closer to the Titans than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Packers over Panthers · pre-game call    62%—
  2. Bills over Ravens    60%61.5¢
  3. Bengals over Titans    87%86.5¢
  4. Cowboys over Cardinals    73%74.5¢
  5. Lions over Vikings    62%62.5¢
  6. Jaguars over Colts    81%80.5¢
  7. Jets over Raiders    55%53.5¢
  8. Steelers over Browns    62%64.5¢
  9. Buccaneers over Falcons    59%55.5¢
  10. Rams over Chargers    72%72.5¢
  11. Chiefs over Broncos    55%52.5¢
  12. Patriots over Dolphins    73%75.5¢
  13. Commanders over Eagles    69%70.5¢
  14. Seahawks over Bears    60%60.5¢

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

This Week's Model Lines vs Market

Week 8 · our DAEPA model line beside the live prediction-market price, every game · free

MatchupModel lineMarketEdge
BAL@BUF
BUF −3.562%-1pp
TEN@CIN
CIN −9.587%0pp
ARI@DAL
DAL −6.575%-1pp
MIN@DET
DET −2.563%0pp
IND@JAX
JAX −7.081%+1pp
LV@NYJ
NYJ −4.054%+2pp
CLE@PIT
PIT −3.065%-2pp
ATL@TB
TB −3.556%+3pp
LAC@LAR
LAR −8.573%-1pp
KC@DEN
held — review49%-4pp
NE@MIA
NE −5.077%-3pp
PHI@WAS
WAS −7.071%-2pp
CHI@SEA
SEA −3.561%0pp

Model line = PMP Gridiron Edge favorite & spread (the model’s own read). Fair (books) = the market line win probability for that side, through the market's own win curve — the market's number, not the model's. Market = Kalshi-implied probability for the same side. Edge = Fair (books) − market, in percentage points. “QB pending” = held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed; “held — review” = the model’s own line is too far from the market to publish. A dash means Kalshi has no two-sided book on that game right now.

Kalshi mids as of 2:10 PM ET · refreshed every 5 minutes

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Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Week 8

Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 3:18 PM ET

Where Kalshi and Polymarket US differ most this week

  1. Cardinals at Cowboys · Jeremiyah Love first TD: Kalshi 7.5¢ · Polymarket US 2.1¢ after fees — Polymarket US 5.3¢ less
  2. Vikings at Lions · Aaron Jones Sr. first TD: Kalshi 7.5¢ · Polymarket US 2.1¢ after fees — Polymarket US 5.3¢ less
  3. Chiefs at Broncos · Rashee Rice first TD: Kalshi 6.4¢ · Polymarket US 2.1¢ after fees — Polymarket US 4.3¢ less
  4. Chiefs at Broncos · Marvin Mims Jr. first TD: Kalshi 4.3¢ · Polymarket US 2.1¢ after fees — Polymarket US 2.1¢ less
  5. Bears at Seahawks · AJ Barner first TD: Kalshi 6.4¢ · Polymarket US 8.5¢ after fees — Kalshi 2.1¢ less

Not every market is listed on both venues. Each tile prices the market favorite to win on both venues; the strip lists the same-question pairs, across every game this week, where the cost after fees differs most. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee. Prices older than 30 minutes show as no current price.

All 18 weeks

Week 1

16 games →

Week 2

16 games →

Week 3

16 games →

Week 4

16 games →

Week 5

15 games →

Week 6

14 games →

Week 7

14 games →

Week 8 · this week

14 games →

Week 9

15 games →

Week 10

14 games →

Week 11

13 games →

Week 12

16 games →

Week 13

14 games →

Week 14

15 games →

Week 15

16 games →

Week 16

16 games →

Week 17

16 games →

Week 18

16 games →

Schedule predictor →Win totals →Kalshi NFL hub →

NFL schedule this week — frequently asked

What are the NFL picks this week?

Week 8 picks straight up: Packers over Panthers (pre-game call), Bills over Ravens, Bengals over Titans, Cowboys over Cardinals, Lions over Vikings, Jaguars over Colts, Jets over Raiders, Steelers over Browns, Buccaneers over Falcons, Rams over Chargers, Chiefs over Broncos, Patriots over Dolphins, Commanders over Eagles, Seahawks over Bears. Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability; the full Week 8 board, with the Kalshi price and the edge on every game, is on the NFL Week 8 predictions hub.

What NFL games are on this week (Week 8) and who wins?

Week 8 has 13 games still to play. The model's straight-up winners: Bills over Ravens (60%); Bengals over Titans (87%); Cowboys over Cardinals (73%); Lions over Vikings (62%); Jaguars over Colts (81%); Jets over Raiders (55%); Steelers over Browns (62%); Buccaneers over Falcons (59%); Rams over Chargers (72%); Chiefs over Broncos (55%); Patriots over Dolphins (73%); Commanders over Eagles (69%); Seahawks over Bears (60%). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); the play on a game is the side where that probability and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread. The full Week 8 board with the model's lean and the edge on every game is on the NFL Week 8 predictions hub.

How is the NFL schedule organised here?

One page per regular-season week, Week 1 through Week 18, each listing every game with the published win probability (the fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price and the edge between them, and one page per game underneath. This page always leads with the current week and keeps the index of all 18 weeks below it, so the same URL is this week's schedule all season.

How often is this week’s schedule and the picks updated?

Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played, and the page rolls to the next week as soon as the Sunday afternoon games are final, with that week’s Sunday and Monday night games pinned at the top until they kick off.

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