Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles

Thursday, December 24, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Texans

44%

model win prob

Eagles

56%

model win prob

Model line

Eagles −2

Kalshi (Eagles)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Eagles — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Houston Texans+1.37thPlayoff

Philadelphia Eagles+0.714thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Houston Texans travel to face the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Eagles 14th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Texans 7th (Playoff tier, +1.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Eagles by 2 — a 56% win probability for the Eagles.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 56% (Eagles) / 44% (Texans) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Texans vs Eagles — frequently asked

Who is favored in Texans vs Eagles in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Eagles by 2 points and gives them a 56% win probability over the Texans. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Texans vs Eagles?

Home win probability 56% (Eagles), away 44% (Texans). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Eagles rate 14th of 32 (Average tier), the Texans 7th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Texans vs Eagles on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.