Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles
Updated · model ratings
Thursday, December 24, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Eagles by 2.5 in Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Week 16 2026 — 58% to win, and a Philadelphia December game that has run a median 38°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Eagles at 53c or below (or Texans at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+2.0
PHI
+2.4
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Texans
42%
model win prob
Eagles
58%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
34%
Madden 27
66%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Texans at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Texans at Eagles
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsEagles −10.5 → Eagles −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Texans at Eagles in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 12 Philadelphia home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 38°F with 8 mph of wind, and 50% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 19°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +2.4 for the Eagles, +2.0 for the Texans, and lands on the Eagles by 2.5 (58%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Eagles grade +1.7 on that side of the ball (4th of 32) against a Texans offense at -1.3 (25th) — 3.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Texans defense (+2.6, 1st), a 2.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Texans grade +0.7, 8th in the league, against +0.2 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.6 projected wins for the Eagles against 9.3 for the Texans, favored in 11 and 12 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Texans'.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
One team has owned this series: the Eagles are 6-0 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Eagles won 29-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Eagles at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 58% / 42% — the tradable window is narrow: Eagles at 53c or below, Texans at 37c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Eagles on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI
- Market-implied (Eagles)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Eagles)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Texans at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Texans vs Eagles trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Texans vs Eagles — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Eagles in Week 16?
Our power-rating model picks the Eagles by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Texans, for a projected score of Eagles 21, Texans 18 on a ratings-implied 38.9-point total. The Eagles rate 8th of 32 (+2.4) and the Texans 9th (+2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Philadelphia games in December?
Across 12 Philadelphia home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 38°F with 8 mph wind, 50% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 19°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 2.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Eagles?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Texans at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Eagles host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday, December 24, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 16, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
What does the model project for the Eagles and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Eagles?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Eagles at 53c or below or the Texans at 37c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Texans vs Eagles on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 16 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC24HOUPHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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