Gridiron EdgeAFC East

Buffalo Bills: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge

Board as of Oct 23, 2026 · prices live

The prediction-market read on the Bills: our 10,000-season simulation projects 11.2 wins in 2026 (2nd of 32, Playoff tier; model 11.1), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC East standing below.

This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →

Week 7 gamesPatriots at Bears Steelers at Saints 49ers at Falcons Bengals at Ravens Buccaneers at Panthers Giants at Texans Colts at Vikings Dolphins at Jets Browns at Titans Broncos at Cardinals Packers at Lions Rams at Raiders Chiefs at Seahawks Cowboys at Eagles

Entering Week 7: experts 3 · market-implied 1 · PMP 6. Experts vs. market on the Bills →

2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi

Buffalo Bills

AFC East · 6th power rating · Playoff

Kalshi live

11.2 projected wins
± 1.6 · 2nd of 32

Kalshi market

12.31w

Ladder-implied wins

7 Oracles sim

11.20w

59.6% backtested

Divergence

-1.11w

Market higher

Model agrees with the market

Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — MODERATE on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 11.1. No single rung sits near 50¢.

See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.

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The consensus spread

Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.

2.75 wins of disagreement

9.56 Madden 27

11.20 Our sim

12.31 Kalshi

6.98.910.912.914.9

Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 11.20 and the Madden simulation at 9.56 against 12.31 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.

Madden and our model broadly agree on the Bills — 8th on talent against 6th on play-by-play.

Where the season actually lands

A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.

Kalshi 12.31 01234567891011121314151617

28%

our probability
of clearing 12.31

Madden sim: 15%
-22.3pp vs a coin flip

Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 11.20 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 11.14 ± 1.61). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.

The Ladder — Bills

All ladders →

The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.

BillsSeason winsMARKET READView 13+ wins on Kalshi →

Kalshi prices 13+ wins at 50¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

17+
wins
thin
—
outside band
16+
wins
YES 8¢ · pays 12.5x NO 99¢
—
outside band
15+
wins
YES 15¢ · pays 6.7x NO 89¢
—
outside band
14+
wins
YES 28¢ · pays 3.6x NO 73¢
—
outside band
Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 13+
13+
wins
YES 52¢ · pays 1.9x NO 53¢
—
outside band
12+
wins
YES 68¢ · pays 1.5x NO 35¢
—
—
11+
wins
YES 86¢ · pays 1.2x NO 15¢
—
—
10+
wins
YES 96¢ · pays 1x NO 5¢
—
outside band
9+
wins
YES 99¢ · pays 1x NO 5¢
—
outside band
8+
wins
thin
—
outside band
7+
wins
thin
—
outside band
6+
wins
thin
—
outside band
5+
wins
thin
—
outside band
4+
wins
thin
—
outside band
3+
wins
thin
—
outside band
2+
wins
thin
—
outside band
1+
wins
thin
—
outside band

Headline rung · 11+ wins

YES 86¢NO 15¢

pays 1.2x · books — · Oracle 🔒

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Market edges

The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.

◆ MODERATE confidence 12.31 · Under

Season wins under 12.31

Our 10,000-season simulation projects 11.20 (model 11.14), the Madden 27 simulation 9.56, against 12.31 market-implied wins — a -1.11-win gap. MODERATE on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.

◆ MODERATE confidence Wk 9 · Away

Week 9 at Vikings

The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →

Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.

Power rating breakdown

Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.

Overall +2.4

Offense +4.5

Defense -2.8

Special teams +0.6

Overall +2.4 ranks 6th of 32 (Playoff tier). How Bills rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →

Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).

The season path

Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.

100 @Texans 1 100 Lions 2 100 Chargers 3 0 Patriots 4 100 @Rams 5 100 @Raiders 6 59 Ravens 8 50 @Vikings 9 56 @Jets 10 74 Dolphins 11 60 Chiefs 12 40 @Patriots 13 45 @Packers 14 54 Bears 15 46 @Broncos 16 62 @Dolphins 17 69 Jets 18

Loss likelyWin likely— cumulative expected wins

Roster shape vs the league

Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.

1 Quarterback 99

10 O-Line 81

13 Receiver 81

16 Tight End 81

5 Running Back 94

18 Pass Rush 81

26 Linebacker 76

21 Secondary 79

25 Special Teams 75

Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).

2026 schedule & model win probabilities

All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 5-1 already banked sum to the model's 11.1 wins; the 11.2-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.

WeekOpponentH/AOur %Madden %

Wk 1at Houston TexansAWAYW 36-31

Wk 2vs Detroit LionsHOMEW 41-31

Wk 3vs Los Angeles ChargersHOMEW 24-16

Wk 4vs New England PatriotsHOMEL 26-29

Wk 5at Los Angeles RamsAWAYW 37-34

Wk 6at Las Vegas RaidersAWAYW 33-30

Wk 8vs Baltimore RavensHOME59%50%

Wk 9at Minnesota VikingsAWAY50%54%

Wk 10at New York JetsAWAY56%63%

Wk 11vs Miami DolphinsHOME74%77%

Wk 12vs Kansas City ChiefsHOME60%53%

Wk 13at New England PatriotsAWAY40%45%

Wk 14at Green Bay PackersAWAY45%50%

Wk 15vs Chicago BearsHOME54%60%

Wk 16at Denver BroncosAWAY46%50%

Wk 17at Miami DolphinsAWAY62%67%

Wk 18vs New York JetsHOME69%73%

Bills player pages

All players →

One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

AFC East ladder

Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.

Bills 11.2 +2.4

Patriots 10.3 +3.6

Jets 7.1 -2.2

Dolphins 4.2 -4.5

Model has the Bills 1st in the AFC East. Division hub →

Division odds: Bills 74¢ to win the AFC East on Kalshi.

10,000-season simulation

How it works →

Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.

Sim average wins

11.2

10,000 seasons · 79% reach 10+

Make playoffs

82%

1% win 6 or fewer

Win division

52%

20% take the 1 seed

Win Super Bowl

7.4%

5th of 32 · 14% reach it

The Bills draw a 0.496 opponent win rate — the 19th-hardest schedule in the league.

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.

Madden 27 outlook

Full board →

A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.

Madden rank

83.0 composite · QB 99

Simulated wins

9.6

52% reach 10+

Playoffs

62%

42% win division

Super Bowl

5.8%

SoS 0.502 (16th hardest)

Madden and our model broadly agree on the Bills — 8th on talent against 6th on play-by-play.

Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →

Bills 2026 — frequently asked

What is the Buffalo Bills win total for 2026?

The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 12.3 wins for the Bills in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 11.2 wins — a 1.1-win agreement with the market (MODERATE on our wins ladder).

Where do the Bills rank in our 2026 power ratings?

The Bills sit at a +2.4-point power rating — 6th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +4.5, defense -2.8, special teams +0.6) is the input behind every Bills prediction-market edge we publish.

Can you trade Buffalo Bills games on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Bills season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.

What division are the Bills in for 2026?

The Bills play in the AFC East, alongside Dolphins, Patriots, Jets. Our model has them projected 1st in the AFC East on 11.2 expected wins.

Trade Bills markets on Kalshi →Kalshi NFL hub →All 32 win totals →Full 18-week schedule →

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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

More Bills markets

NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
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Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale

This team in the first-quarter report

Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →