Buffalo Bills: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
The prediction-market read on the Bills: our DAEPA model projects 10.3 wins in 2026 (4th of 32, Playoff tier), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC East standing below.
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Model projection
10.3
±2.0 wins
Kalshi market
10.3
KXNFLWINS-27BUF
Edge
-0.0
wins
Model agrees with the market
Edge (raw model−market) flagged at ±2.50 wins this week. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Overall
+4.2
4th · Playoff
Offense
+4.0
points/gm
Defense
-0.2
points/gm
Special teams
+0.4
points/gm
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (66.2% backtested game accuracy across 6,218 games).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Win probability is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=13.5. The sum of these 17 numbers is the 10.3-win projection above.
AFC East projected standing
Division hub →Bills 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Buffalo Bills win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 10.3 wins for the Bills in 2026. Our DAEPA power-rating model projects 10.3 wins — a 0.0-win agreement with the market.
Where do the Bills rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Bills sit at a +4.2-point power rating — 4th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +4.0, defense -0.2, special teams +0.4) is the input behind every Bills prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Buffalo Bills games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Bills season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Bills in for 2026?
The Bills play in the AFC East, alongside Dolphins, Patriots, Jets. Our model has them projected 2nd in the AFC East on 10.3 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.