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Home/NFL/Week 1/Browns vs Jaguars
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026

Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Jaguars by 7.5 (65% to win); the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game model had the Jaguars by 7.5 (65% to win). The Jaguars won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Jaguars: 0c — we archived the Jaguars at 79c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 79c on Sep 12. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 1 · 2026-09-15

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 15.4pp on Jaguars moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jaguars moneylineModel 65% vs market 50% on JAX.50c65%Attack7.7%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Jacksonville 34, Cleveland 10: a 150.6 passer rating and four touchdowns before the fourth quarter

Trevor Lawrence threw eighteen times, completed eighteen minus five, and four of them were touchdowns to four different receivers. Jacksonville led 31-0 in the third. The market had moved a point and a half further onto the Jaguars before kickoff and it was still not enough.

Browns 10—Jaguars 34

Final✓ Call hit

A directional hit and a position loss, again. The model had Jacksonville at 65.4% and Jacksonville won by twenty-four, so the chip above is a hit. The published position was Cleveland: our engine priced the Browns above a Kalshi mark that implied 21.5%, called it a 13.1-point gap, tiered it STRONG and published Cleveland at 22c. It closed at 20.5c — a cent and a half against us — and Cleveland lost by twenty-four. That is the third STRONG-tier position of the Sunday slate on a large underdog and the third one to lose. The DraftKings line was the clearer signal and it pointed the other way all week: Jacksonville opened -7 and closed -8.5 with the total pinned at 40.5 in both directions, which is a market that added to the favorite without adding to the scoring, and the game came in at forty-four with a 31-0 scoreline through three quarters. When a line lengthens on a favorite and our number lengthens on the underdog, one of the two is looking at something the other cannot see. On Week 1 evidence it was not us.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Jaguars −7 → Jaguars −8.5
Total
40.5 → 40.5
Moneyline
CLE +230 / JAX −285 → CLE +360 / JAX −470

The spread moved toward the side that won.

How it happened

Q3

Four touchdown passes to four different receivers

Lawrence hit Parker Washington from thirty, Josh Cameron from four, Brenton Strange from fourteen and Jakobi Meyers from thirty-two, the last one twelve minutes into the third for 31-0. He went eighteen of twenty-three for 245 at 10.7 an attempt and a 150.6 rating, and was pulled out of the situation before he had to throw a fourth-quarter pass.

Lawrence
18/23, 245 yards, 4 TD, 150.6 rating
Touchdown receivers
4 different players
Score, 12:08 Q3
Jacksonville 31, Cleveland 0

ESPN box score — Browns at Jaguars

Q3

Cleveland did not score until the second half was half gone

The Browns’ first points came on an Andre Szmyt field goal with 8:31 left in the third, trailing 31-0. They went one of eight on third down, took eleven penalties for seventy-five yards, and did not reach the red zone in two attempts.

Cleveland first points
8:31 Q3, trailing 31-0
Third down
Cleveland 1-8
Red zone
Cleveland 0-2

ESPN box score — Browns at Jaguars

Q2

Five sacks and a Foyesade Oluokun interception

Deshaun Watson was sacked five times for twenty yards and intercepted once. Ventrell Miller had a sack, two tackles for loss and ten tackles. Jacksonville did not turn the ball over at all and won time of possession by more than seven minutes.

Sacks
Jacksonville 5, Cleveland 1
Turnovers
Cleveland 2, Jacksonville 0
Time of possession
Jacksonville 33:51

ESPN box score — Browns at Jaguars

Q4

A forty-six-yard touchdown with 1:52 left made it 34-10

Denzel Boston caught a forty-six-yard score from Watson with under two minutes to play. It moved the margin from thirty-one to twenty-four and moved the game from four points under the total to four over it — the kind of late score that decides a total and nothing else.

Boston
2 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD (46 long)
Combined points
44 on a 40.5 closing total
Margin
24, against a 8.5 closing line

ESPN box score — Browns at Jaguars

What this recap does not know

  • The Kalshi position on Cleveland (entry 22c, close 20.5c, CLV -1.5c, tier STRONG, 13.1pp edge) is read from nfl_weekly_edges with result and pnl_cents null at publication. The loss is derived from the final score.
  • Jacksonville prop calls from run 2026w01-20260912T222210Z-121a58 — Meyers UNDER 3.5 receptions, Washington UNDER 4.5, Tuten UNDER 1.5 receptions and UNDER 14.5 receiving yards — are not graded in this entry.
  • Attendance at EverBank Stadium is listed at 41,156, well below the venue norm, and this recap does not establish why.
  • All game facts come from a single source, the ESPN box score and scoring summary.
  • The Kalshi close quoted is the last archived pre-kickoff snapshot.

Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Browns at Jaguars · ESPN game page — Browns at Jaguars · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns

The trench read: two rookies and a hurting center walk into the league's best run defense

Cleveland traded Myles Garrett to the Rams and starts two rookies on its offensive line in Jacksonville, against the stingiest run defense in the league a year ago. Deshaun Watson, confirmed as the starter over Shedeur Sanders, carries a real turnover history into a defense that forced the second-most takeaways in football. The page above prices this game a long way less lopsided than Kalshi does, and its ratings-implied total of 39.9 points is one of the lowest on the Week 1 board — this section is about the trenches that make it a low-scoring game and about why it may not be as ugly as the market price says.

Browns offensive line · Jaguars run defense

Two rookies and a hurting center anchor Cleveland's line on the road

Edge: Jaguars

Left tackle Spencer Fano, a first-round pick, and third-round guard Austin Barber, converted from college tackle, both start. Teven Jenkins is already ruled out with a back injury, and rookie center Parker Brailsford is questionable with a thumb after being limited all week. That group opens in Jacksonville against a defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league last season and under four yards a carry. This is the deepest end of the pool for a rookie line.

Fano (LT) and Barber (G)
Rookies, first road start
Jenkins (G) · Brailsford (C)
OUT — back · Questionable — thumb
Jaguars rush defense, 2025
85.6 yds/gm · 3.9 YPC — both top-2

Source: Browns — Teven Jenkins out for Week 1, injury report

Jaguars edge · Browns left tackle

Josh Hines-Allen vs Spencer Fano

Edge: Jaguars

Hines-Allen was fifth in the league in pressures last season and lines up across from a rookie making his first career road start. Cleveland's own team site previewed the matchup by name, which tells you how the Browns see it. Watson's protection plan will tilt this way from the first snap, and every chip and slide sent to Fano's side is a body not in the route.

Hines-Allen, 2025
8 sacks · 46 pressures (5th in NFL)
Fano
First-round rookie, first road start

Source: Browns — Fano prepares for Hines-Allen

Browns pass rush · Jaguars protection

Jared Verse gives Cleveland a real edge rusher after trading Garrett

Close to even

Verse was the centerpiece coming back in the Garrett trade, and across two seasons in Los Angeles he produced legitimate pass-rush numbers. He is not a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, and the defense around him lost one. But this is not a Browns front with nobody to worry about, and how Jacksonville handles him decides whether Trevor Lawrence has a clean afternoon.

Verse, first two seasons
12 sacks · 22 TFL · 45 QB hits

Source: Dawg Pound Daily — updated defensive depth chart after the Garrett trade

Browns quarterback · Jaguars pass defense

Deshaun Watson's turnover history meets the league's No. 2 takeaway defense

Edge: Jaguars

Watson has thrown twelve interceptions and fumbled eleven times in nineteen games as a Brown. Jacksonville forced 31 takeaways last season, second in the league, 22 of them interceptions. Watson won the job over rookie Shedeur Sanders in a preseason competition neither quarterback took cleanly. The matchup that decides whether the Kalshi price is right is this one — a giveaway-prone quarterback behind a rookie line against a defense built to take the ball.

Watson as a Brown
12 INT · 11 fumbles in 19 games
Jaguars takeaways, 2025
31 — 2nd in NFL (22 INT)
Watson, preseason
16/27 · 162 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

Source: NFL.com — Watson named Week 1 starter

Jaguars boundary · Browns receivers

Travis Hunter's fuller cornerback role, mostly on Jerry Jeudy

Edge: Jaguars

Hunter is expected to line up primarily across from Jeudy in his second season, with some shadow work on rookie KC Concepcion in certain packages. It is a real step up in defensive responsibility for a player who arrived as a two-way novelty. Cleveland's passing game runs through Jeudy, so this is the coverage matchup that matters most.

Browns boundary · Jaguars receivers

Tyson Campbell's revenge game

Close to even

Campbell was traded from Jacksonville to Cleveland in-season last year, for Greg Newsome II, and now faces the team that moved him. Depending on formation he draws Jakobi Meyers or Parker Washington. Denzel Ward on Brian Thomas Jr. is the standard alignment on the other side, though nobody on the staff has confirmed it.

Jaguars protection

Jacksonville's own question mark at right tackle

Close to even

Cole Van Lanen was limited all week with a knee and came off Friday's report without a designation, but Liam Coen called him a game-time decision, with Walker Little starting at right tackle if he cannot go. If Van Lanen sits, Verse gets a more competitive path to Trevor Lawrence, and the one part of this game where Cleveland can actually generate pressure gets more interesting.

Van Lanen (RT, knee)
No designation — game-time decision per Coen
If he sits
Walker Little starts at RT

Source: Jaguar Report — final Week 1 injury report on Van Lanen

What this read does not know

  • Cleveland's left guard assignment — Elgton Jenkins or Zion Johnson — was not settled between two otherwise-reliable sources. Sunday's inactive list is the only thing that resolves it.
  • No 2025 or 2026 run-defense ranking for Cleveland was found, so this read cites none. That side of the ball is the read's blind spot.
  • Quinshon Judkins, the Browns' lead back, carries a questionable tag with no disclosed injury type in any current report.
  • Denzel Ward on Brian Thomas Jr. is the standard-alignment expectation, not a confirmed staff assignment.
  • Cole Van Lanen and Parker Brailsford are both genuine game-time calls as of Friday, September 11. The seventh unit and the first unit are written on the Friday status and could each flip Sunday morning.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Browns — official Week 1 injury report · Ourlads — Jaguars depth chart · ESPN — Browns and Rams finalize the Myles Garrett trade · NFL.com — top 10 defenses of 2026 · Jaguar Report — final Week 1 injury report · NFL.com — Jaguars trade Tyson Campbell to the Browns

PMP · WK 1 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY CLE -2.3
vs JAX -7.5
HOME JAX +2.6
Model · JAX 65% home win prob
Kalshi · JAX 50¢ yes mid
Edge +15.4pp model − market
📍 Jacksonville, FL PASS — no edge

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.

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Browns

35%

model win prob

Jaguars

65%

model win prob

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

43%

Madden 27

57%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Browns at Jaguars

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Browns at JaguarsSpreadONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%Jaguars −0.5Jaguars −3.5Jaguars −7.5Jaguars −14.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
—
Kalshi · P(YES)
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

RungMarketModelGap
Jaguars −0.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −1.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −2.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −3.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −4.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −6.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −7.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −9.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −10.5—🔒—not listed
Jaguars −13.5—outside range—not listed
Jaguars −14.5—outside range—not listed

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Cleveland Browns-2.326thBelow Avg
Jacksonville Jaguars+2.66thPlayoff

Season outlook

CLEJAX
Average wins7.59.7
Make playoffs30%62%
Win division14%41%
Win Super Bowl1.1%5.0%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Why the model has the Jaguars by 7.5

The model does not think this one is close. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 at +2.6, the Browns 26th at -2.3, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Jaguars by 7.5 — 65% to win. That is the 1st-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 1 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Browns need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Jaguars grade 0.0 on that side of the ball (9th of 32) against a Browns offense at -4.0 (31st) — 4.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Jaguars offense (+1.7, 9th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 0.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against -0.2 (31st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Browns'. Nothing on the Browns' schedule projects harder than this one.

Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Browns' favour. They last met in 2024: Browns won 18-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Jacksonville home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 86°F and the median wind 7 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC contract implies 50% for the Jaguars against our 65% — a 15.4-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Jaguars as the value side.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Browns vs Jaguars on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC
Market-implied (Jaguars)
50c · 50%
Our model (Jaguars)
65%
Model vs market
+15.4pp

This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 65% for the Jaguars. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Browns vs Jaguars trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueJaguarsTrade
Kalshi50% 50cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig80% 80cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Browns vs Jaguars — frequently asked

Who won Browns vs Jaguars in Week 1?

Cleveland Browns 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 34 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Jaguars by 7.5 (65% to win), and the Jaguars won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

Who did the model favor in Browns vs Jaguars before kickoff?

Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Jaguars by 7.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Browns. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

What would it take for the Browns to win?

The 7.5-point line comes from a 4.9-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Browns still project at 35% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

How do you take a position on Browns vs Jaguars?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Jaguars YES is quoted around 50c against our 65% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Jaguars host the Browns?

Cleveland Browns visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.

What does the model project for the Jaguars and Browns this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Browns vs Jaguars?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC. The Jaguars YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 65%. That is a 15.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Could you trade Browns vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Jaguars?

68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Jaguars at 65% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Is Jaguars moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 65% against a market price implying 50%, an edge of +15.4 points. Model 65% vs market 50% on JAX. We rate it attack, sized at 7.7% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

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More Week 1 matchups

Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
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Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
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