Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Dolphins
35%
model win prob
Colts
65%
model win prob
Model line
Colts −5
Kalshi (Colts)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Colts — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 10, the Miami Dolphins travel to face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Colts 13th of 32 (Average tier, +0.7) and the Dolphins 26th (Average tier, -2.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Colts by 5 — a 65% win probability for the Colts.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 65% (Colts) / 35% (Dolphins) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Colts in Week 10?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Colts by 5 points and gives them a 65% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Dolphins vs Colts?
Home win probability 65% (Colts), away 35% (Dolphins). That comes from a power-rating differential of +2.7 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Colts rate 13th of 32 (Average tier), the Dolphins 26th (Average tier).
Can you trade Dolphins vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Colts host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 15, 2026 in NFL Week 10, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.