Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 5.5 in Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 10 2026 — 66% to win, and the 78th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 61c or below (or Dolphins at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.3
IND
+0.0
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Dolphins
34%
model win prob
Colts
66%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
27%
Madden 27
73%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 61c or below, or the Dolphins at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Dolphins at Colts
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Colts −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Colts −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Dolphins–Colts, 78 games in
These two have played 78 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 9-3 to the Colts since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +0.0 against -3.3, Colts by 5.5, 66% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Colts at 8.7 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Colts' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 66%, Dolphins 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 61c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Colts on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND
- Market-implied (Colts)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Colts)
- 66%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Colts at 61c or below, or the Dolphins at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Dolphins vs Colts trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Colts | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Dolphins vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Colts in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Colts by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Dolphins, for a projected score of Colts 27, Dolphins 21 on a ratings-implied 48.0-point total. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (+0.0) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Dolphins and Colts?
Our records hold 78 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 9-3 for the Colts over 12 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 61c or below, or the Dolphins at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.7 wins (favored in 10) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Colts?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Colts at 61c or below or the Dolphins at 29c or below, off a 5.5-point line.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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