Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Colts by 5.5 in Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 10 2026 — 65% to win, and the 78th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 60c or below (or Dolphins at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.0
IND
-0.1
Dolphins
35%
model win prob
Colts
65%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAINDhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 60c or below, or the Dolphins at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Dolphins–Colts, 78 games in
These two have played 78 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 9-3 to the Colts since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: -0.1 against -3.0, Colts by 5.5, 65% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 0.4-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Colts' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 65%, Dolphins 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 60c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Colts — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Colts in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Colts by 5.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Dolphins. The Colts rate 15th of 32 (-0.1) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Dolphins and Colts?
Our records hold 78 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 9-3 for the Colts over 12 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 60c or below, or the Dolphins at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 8.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.