Dolphins vs Colts Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Last week: Dolphins play Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Lions β preview
- Last week: Colts play Sun 1:00 PM ET vs Cowboys β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Colts by 5 in Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts, NFL Week 10 2026 β 64% to win, and the 78th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Colts at 59c or below (or Dolphins at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-4.3
IND
-1.6
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Dolphins
36%
our model
Colts
64%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
27%
Madden 27
73%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Colts at 59c or below, or the Dolphins at 31c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Dolphins at Colts How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Dolphins vs Colts power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Dolphins and Colts season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Dolphins vs Colts β player pages
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
DolphinsβColts, 78 games in
These two have played 78 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 9-3 to the Colts since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us β rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings β but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: -1.6 against -4.3, Colts by 5, 64% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades -0.6 (21st of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -3.9 (31st) β 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Colts defense (-1.8, 22nd), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2) β 1.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Colts' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 64% on the Colts here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Colts 64%, Dolphins 36%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Colts contracts a buy at 59c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 31c or below β anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Colts on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND
- Market-implied (Colts)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Colts)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Colts at 59c or below, or the Dolphins at 31c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Dolphins vs Colts line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Colts β6.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Colts β6.5.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Colts β6.5 Β· O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Colts β6.5 Β· O/U 47.5 | |
| Caesars | Colts β7 Β· O/U 45.5Sep 13 | Colts β7 Β· O/U 45.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Dolphins vs Colts trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Colts | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game β international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Who will win Colts vs Dolphins?
Our model has the Colts at 64% to beat the Dolphins in Week 10.
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Colts in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Colts by 5 points, a 64% win probability over the Dolphins. The Colts rate 24th of 32 (-1.6) and the Dolphins 30th (-4.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Dolphins and Colts?
Our records hold 78 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 9-3 for the Colts over 12 games. The model does not use series history β it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Colts?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Colts at 59c or below, or the Dolphins at 31c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Colts host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN.
What does the model project for the Colts and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Colts at 6.7 wins (favored in 7) and the Dolphins at 5.0 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Colts' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Dolphins', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Colts?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Colts at 59c or below or the Dolphins at 31c or below, off a 5-point line.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Colts on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MIAIND. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Dolphins vs Colts ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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See the in-season NFL tools βPrediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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