New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 3.5 in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 12 2026 — 61% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Patriots, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chargers at 34c or below (or Patriots at 56c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.5
LAC
-0.6
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Patriots
61%
model win prob
Chargers
39%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chargers at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Patriots at Chargers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsChargers −6.5 → Chargers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Patriots at Chargers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Patriots come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Chargers against 14 days' rest for the Patriots. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Patriots by 3.5 (61%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Patriots come in off the Lions, the Chargers off the Jets. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Chargers defense at -0.1 (10th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.9, 24th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 2.2-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Patriots'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Patriots' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2024: Chargers won 40-7 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chargers 39%, Patriots 61%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chargers contracts a buy at 34c or below and Patriots contracts a buy at 56c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Chargers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC
- Market-implied (Chargers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Chargers)
- 39%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Chargers at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Patriots vs Chargers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Patriots vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Chargers in Week 12?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 3.5 points, a 61% win probability over the Chargers, for a projected score of Patriots 25, Chargers 21 on a ratings-implied 45.9-point total. The Chargers rate 19th of 32 (-0.6) and the Patriots 1st (+5.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Patriots have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3.5-point line or the 61% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Chargers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Chargers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Chargers at 34c or below or the Patriots at 56c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Patriots vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Patriots?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Patriots at 61% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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