New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 3 in New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 12 2026 — 59% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Patriots, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chargers at 36c or below (or Patriots at 54c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.4
LAC
-0.4
Patriots
59%
model win prob
Chargers
41%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chargers at 36c or below, or the Patriots at 54c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Patriots at Chargers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Patriots come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 7 days' rest for the Chargers against 14 days' rest for the Patriots. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Patriots by 3 (59%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Patriots come in off the Lions, the Chargers off the Jets. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Chargers defense at -0.1 (10th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 2.0-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Patriots'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Patriots' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2024: Chargers won 40-7 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Patriots at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chargers 41%, Patriots 59%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chargers contracts a buy at 36c or below and Patriots contracts a buy at 54c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Chargers in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 3 points, a 59% win probability over the Chargers. The Chargers rate 17th of 32 (-0.4) and the Patriots 2nd (+5.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Patriots have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 3-point line or the 59% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Chargers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV29NELAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 36c or below, or the Patriots at 54c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 29, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 12, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Patriots?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Patriots at 59% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 3-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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