New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 29, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Patriots
53%
model win prob
Chargers
47%
model win prob
Model line
Patriots −1
Kalshi (Chargers)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 12, the New England Patriots travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Chargers 14th of 32 (Average tier, +0.3) and the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier, +3.8). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 1 — a 53% win probability for the Patriots.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 47% (Chargers) / 53% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Chargers in Week 12?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 1 points and gives them a 53% win probability over the Chargers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Patriots vs Chargers?
Home win probability 47% (Chargers), away 53% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Chargers rate 14th of 32 (Average tier), the Patriots 1st (Playoff tier).
Can you trade Patriots vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Chargers host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 29, 2026 in NFL Week 12, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.