NFL Week 18 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 18 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Patriots at 74% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 18 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- 49ers at Cardinals — Model winner: 49ers (57%)
- Steelers at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (63%)
- Jets at Bills — Model winner: Bills (74%)
- Falcons at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (55%)
- Browns at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (63%)
- Chargers at Broncos — Model winner: Broncos (63%)
- Lions at Packers — Model winner: Packers (60%)
- Titans at Texans — Model winner: Texans (67%)
- Jaguars at Colts — Model winner: Colts (50%)
- Raiders at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (67%)
- Seahawks at Rams — Model winner: Rams (56%)
- Bears at Vikings — Model winner: Bears (54%)
- Dolphins at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (74%)
- Buccaneers at Saints — Model winner: Saints (53%)
- Eagles at Giants — Model winner: Eagles (51%)
- Cowboys at Commanders — Model winner: Cowboys (50%)
All 16 Week 18 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 18 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- 49ers over Cardinals57%—
- Ravens over Steelers63%—
- Bills over Jets74%—
- Panthers over Falcons55%—
- Bengals over Browns63%—
- Broncos over Chargers63%—
- Packers over Lions60%—
- Texans over Titans67%—
- Colts over Jaguars50%—
- Chiefs over Raiders67%—
- Rams over Seahawks56%—
- Bears over Vikings54%—
- Patriots over Dolphins74%—
- Saints over Buccaneers53%—
- Eagles over Giants51%—
- Cowboys over Commanders50%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 18 projected scores
- 49ersatCardinals27.4–25.052.4
- SteelersatRavens20.4–24.845.2
- JetsatBills18.4–29.347.8
- FalconsatPanthers22.1–23.845.9
- BrownsatBengals18.5–22.541.0
- ChargersatBroncos19.5–23.943.4
- LionsatPackers22.7–25.748.4
- TitansatTexans15.4–23.438.8
- JaguarsatColts24.2–24.448.5
- RaidersatChiefs17.2–25.342.5
- SeahawksatRams23.0–25.048.0
- BearsatVikings23.3–21.845.1
- DolphinsatPatriots18.5–29.548.0
- BuccaneersatSaints21.9–22.644.5
- EaglesatGiants23.2–22.545.7
- CowboysatCommanders27.7–27.355.0
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 18 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 18 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 18 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 18 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 18 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 18 games, with its win probability. 49ers over Cardinals (57%); Ravens over Steelers (63%); Bills over Jets (74%); Panthers over Falcons (55%); Bengals over Browns (63%); Broncos over Chargers (63%); Packers over Lions (60%); Texans over Titans (67%); Colts over Jaguars (50%); Chiefs over Raiders (67%); Rams over Seahawks (56%); Bears over Vikings (54%); Patriots over Dolphins (74%); Saints over Buccaneers (53%); Eagles over Giants (51%); Cowboys over Commanders (50%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 18?
Projected scores, winner first: 49ers 27.4, Cardinals 25.0; Ravens 24.8, Steelers 20.4; Bills 29.3, Jets 18.4; Panthers 23.8, Falcons 22.1; Bengals 22.5, Browns 18.5; Broncos 23.9, Chargers 19.5; Packers 25.7, Lions 22.7; Texans 23.4, Titans 15.4; Colts 24.4, Jaguars 24.2; Chiefs 25.3, Raiders 17.2; Rams 25.0, Seahawks 23.0; Bears 23.3, Vikings 21.8; Patriots 29.5, Dolphins 18.5; Saints 22.6, Buccaneers 21.9; Eagles 23.2, Giants 22.5; Cowboys 27.7, Commanders 27.3. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 18 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.