Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 1 in Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 14 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 3.3 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13HOUWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 43c or below (or Texans at 47c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+1.8
WAS
-1.5
Texans
52%
model win prob
Commanders
48%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13HOUWAShasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 43c or below, or the Texans at 47c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Texans–Commanders is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Commanders rate -1.5 (23rd of 32), the Texans +1.8 (9th) — 3.3 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 2nd-closest game of the 15 in Week 14. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Texans'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Texans offense grades -1.3 (26th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.9 (30th) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Texans defense (+2.4, 1st), a 1.4-point gap.
The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Commanders won 23-10 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
On conditions: Washington home games in December have run a median 43°F and 6 mph of wind across 11 games since 2015, with 27% at or below 40°F and a low of 30°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Texans at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13HOUWAS is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 48% / 52% — the tradable window is narrow: Commanders at 43c or below, Texans at 47c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Commanders in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Texans by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Commanders. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Texans 9th (+1.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13HOUWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Commanders (-1.5, 23rd) and Texans (+1.8, 9th) are only 3.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13HOUWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 43c or below, or the Texans at 47c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Texans at 9.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Texans?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Texans at 52% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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