Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Lions

43%

model win prob

Bears

57%

model win prob

Model line

Bears −2.5

Kalshi (Bears)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Detroit Lions+1.28thPlayoff

Chicago Bears+0.910thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 17, the Detroit Lions travel to face the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bears 10th of 32 (Average tier, +0.9) and the Lions 8th (Playoff tier, +1.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Bears.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Bears) / 43% (Lions) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC North divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC North race. Track the full division on the NFC North hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Lions vs Bears — frequently asked

Who is favored in Lions vs Bears in Week 17?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Lions. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Lions vs Bears?

Home win probability 57% (Bears), away 43% (Lions). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bears rate 10th of 32 (Average tier), the Lions 8th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Lions vs Bears on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.