Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders
Updated · market price
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, Kalshi implies 27% for the Raiders in Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders, NFL Week 7 2026, while the market line has the Rams by 6.5 (72% to win) — a 0.5pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Rams by 3.5 against a market line of Rams by 7.0 — a 3.5-point lean toward the Raiders, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 7 · 2026-10-14No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LAR
+2.6
LV
-3.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 7 card free, every game priced against the market.
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Rams
72%
fair value (books)
Raiders
28%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
59%
Madden 27
41%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Rams at Raiders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Rams vs Raiders power ratings (Week 7)
Rams and Raiders season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Rams at Raiders
The Rams travel to face the Raiders in Week 7. Our power ratings put the Raiders 29th of 32 at -3.2 (Below Avg tier) and the Rams 5th at +2.6 (Playoff tier) — a 5.8-point gap that home field narrows to a 3.5-point line on the Rams, 59% to win. It rates as the 4th-widest of the 14 games in Week 7.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +3.0 (5th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -2.0 (26th) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Rams defense (-0.2, 13th), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 7.8 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Rams at 9.0 (favored in 13) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 10th-hardest on the Rams'.
One team has owned this series: the Rams are 6-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Rams won 20-15 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Rams at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV contract implies 27% for the Raiders against a fair value (books) of 28% — a 0.5-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Raiders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV
- Market-implied (Raiders)
- 27c · 27%
- Fair value — books (Raiders)
- 28%
- Fair value vs market
- +0.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 27c on the Raiders is an implied 27% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 28%, a 0.5pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Rams vs Raiders trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% 27c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 28% 28c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket USUS exchange — separate book | 27% 27c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 27% 27c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 27% 27c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Watch the breakdown: Rams vs Raiders
41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026
ShortCardinals vs Raiders Preseason: Why We Took the Over 42.5 on KalshiAug 13, 2026
45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Rams vs Raiders — frequently asked
Who will win Raiders vs Rams?
The market line has the Rams at 72% to beat the Raiders in Week 7.
Who is favored in Rams vs Raiders in Week 7?
The market line has the Rams by 6.5 points, a 72% win probability over the Raiders (our model's own line: Rams by 3.5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV market implies 27% for the Raiders — a 0.5pp agreement with the market line.
What is the biggest mismatch in Rams vs Raiders?
Rams offense (+3.0, 5th of 32) against Raiders defense (-2.0, 26th) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Raiders?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Raiders YES is quoted around 27c against a fair value (books) of 28%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Raiders host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
What does the model project for the Raiders and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 7.8 wins (favored in 3) and the Rams at 9.0 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Rams', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs Raiders?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV. The Raiders YES contract sits around 27c, which is an implied 27% — against our books-anchored fair value of 28%. That is a 0.5pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Rams vs Raiders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Rams?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Rams at 59% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 28% against a market price implying 27%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 28% vs market 27% on LV. We pass — no position.
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After this one
More Week 7 matchups
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