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Home/NFL/Week 7/Rams vs Raiders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 7 · 2026

Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21

Final. Raiders' next game: Raiders vs Jets, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 3.5 (62% to win); the Rams won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Rams at 62c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 3.5 (62% to win). The Rams won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Rams: -8c — we archived the Rams at 70c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 62c on Oct 25. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 7 · 2026-10-26

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Rams to winModel 62% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 62% on LAR — kept as the pre-game record.62c62%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Rams 35, Raiders 21: Matthew Stafford’s three touchdown passes make him the Rams’ career leader as Los Angeles leads 28-6 at halftime

Los Angeles punted on its first possession and then scored touchdowns on four straight, two of them 3- and 5-yard throws to tight end Davis Allen, for a 28-6 halftime lead. Stafford’s third touchdown pass, 11 yards to Puka Nacua, was his 155th as a Ram, one more than Roman Gabriel, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for 192 yards and a touchdown each. Kirk Cousins threw for 295 yards and fourth-quarter touchdowns to Tre Tucker and Ashton Jeanty, but Las Vegas failed on both 2-point tries. DraftKings opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite and closed it at 3.5; the Rams won by 14, and 56 points finished over both the opening 46.5 and the closing 49.5.

Rams 35—Raiders 21

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Los Angeles at 62.2% (Las Vegas 37.8%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3.5-point line. Los Angeles won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was Los Angeles by 2.6, a 0.9-point lean toward the Raiders, tier NONE, and the Rams won by 14: the lean was wrong. The ledger holds no live position; its two rows, a MODERATE Raiders game winner at 25.5¢ and then a MODERATE Rams game winner at 69¢, were voided on 2026-10-15 and 2026-10-19 (no_longer_edge) and count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Five visible WATCH rows went 3-2 and are graded apart, never folded into the record: Allen over 0.5 catches and over 9.5 receiving yards won (four for 20 and two touchdowns), Tucker over 3.5 catches won (five), and both Jordan Whittington catch overs (0.5, 1.5) lost; he returned two kickoffs and caught nothing. No row on this game was on a suppressed stat.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Rams −7.5 → Rams −3.5
Total
46.5 → 49.5
To win
LAR −360 / LV +285 → LAR −192 / LV +160

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 3 to 49.5; the game landed on 56.

How it happened

Q1

Gay misses, then two Davis Allen touchdowns

Matt Gay missed a field goal on Las Vegas’s second drive, and Stafford finished an eight-play, 59-yard drive with a 3-yard touchdown to Allen, his first of the season. Gay made a 30-yarder, and the Rams answered with a 12-play, 80-yard drive that ended on Allen’s second touchdown, from 5 yards, early in the second quarter.

Allen
4 catches · 20 yds · 2 TD
Second Allen TD drive
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:50
Score
Rams 14, Raiders 3

AP via ESPN — Matthew Stafford sets Rams TD pass record as Los Angeles rolls past Raiders 35-21

Q2

Nacua for the record, a stop on downs and Williams from 17

Stafford’s 11-yard touchdown to Nacua, a Las Vegas native listed questionable with a calf injury, was his 155th touchdown pass as a Ram, one more than Roman Gabriel’s team record, per the AP. Las Vegas turned it over on downs on its next drive, and Williams ran 17 yards for a 28-3 lead with 1:19 left in the half before Gay’s 27-yarder at the gun.

Nacua TD drive
7 plays · 81 yds · 4:14
Halftime
Rams 28, Raiders 6

AP via ESPN — Matthew Stafford sets Rams TD pass record as Los Angeles rolls past Raiders 35-21

Q3

A scoreless third and two Raiders drives that end on downs

Neither team scored in the third quarter. Las Vegas turned it over on downs in Rams territory twice, once at the end of an 11-play drive and again on a four-play drive that started at the Rams 30 after Jeremy Chinn recovered a Williams fumble.

First Raiders drive
11 plays · 62 yds · downs
After the fumble
4 plays · 5 yds · downs

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Tucker from 37, Jeanty from 15, two failed conversions and Corum from 4

Cousins hit Tucker for a 37-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter, Nakobe Dean intercepted Stafford on the next snap, and Cousins found Jeanty from 15 to make it 28-18, with both 2-point tries failing. Corum answered with a 12-play, 70-yard drive and a 4-yard touchdown run, and Gay’s 36-yarder closed the scoring. Sean McVay is 4-0 against the Raiders, per the AP.

Final
Rams 35, Raiders 21
Stafford
23 of 29 · 195 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
Cousins
26 of 44 · 295 yds · 2 TD
Tucker
5 catches · 103 yds · 1 TD
Rushing
LAR 199 on 38 · LV 48 on 17
Corum
17 carries · 93 yds · 1 TD

AP via ESPN — Matthew Stafford sets Rams TD pass record as Los Angeles rolls past Raiders 35-21

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (both game-winner rows were voided before kickoff). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W7_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-25/prop-reconciliation-w07.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The team touchdown record (155, one more than Roman Gabriel) and McVay’s 4-0 record against the Raiders are from the AP alone; this recap did not check them against a second source.
  • Trent McDuffie (groin) was deactivated before kickoff, per the AP; Nacua was listed questionable (calf) and played.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings line moved four points toward Las Vegas (Los Angeles −7.5 to −3.5) before a 14-point Rams win. The core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Matthew Stafford sets Rams TD pass record as Los Angeles rolls past Raiders 35-21

The Rams’ top-three defense was built by a line that is now on injured reserve

Los Angeles ranks third in total defense and second against the pass, and those numbers were earned by a front that has since lost two interior players to injured reserve — with the run-defense figure already showing the crack at twenty-sixth. Las Vegas scores like a top-six team and runs like a bottom-three one, so it has to win this through the air against a secondary missing its best cornerback. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.

Raiders offense · Rams defense

A top-three defense on paper, missing the line that built it, against a top-six scoring offense

Close to even

The Rams allow 294.0 total yards a game, third, and 167.0 passing, second — and they concede 127.0 on the ground, twenty-sixth, which is the number that tells you where the unit actually is. Kobie Turner is on injured reserve for at least four weeks and Poona Ford is on injured reserve too; Los Angeles signed an edge rusher onto the active roster to cover. Las Vegas scores 27.0 a game, sixth, but rushes for only 79.2, thirtieth, so the path is through the air — and Los Angeles was down cornerback Trent McDuffie (groin) and linebacker Nate Landman (concussion protocol) on Wednesday. Those headline defensive ranks overstate the unit that will take the field on Sunday, and we are saying so rather than quoting them flat.

Rams defense, as ranked
294.0 total yards a game (3rd) · 167.0 pass yards (2nd) · but 127.0 rush yards (26th) — raiders.com, 2026-10-21
What has changed since
DL Kobie Turner to injured reserve (out 4+ weeks) · DT Poona Ford to injured reserve · EDGE Darryl Peterson III signed to the active roster
Las Vegas offense
27.0 points a game (6th) but 79.2 rush yards a game (30th) — raiders.com, 2026-10-21

Source: raiders.com — Game preview: Raiders vs Rams, 10/25/26 (2026-10-21, 10:32 a.m.)

Rams pass offense · Raiders defense

The second-best passing offense, without Davante Adams, against the twenty-eighth defense

Edge: Rams

Los Angeles moves the ball as well as almost anyone — third in total offense, second in passing — and scores like a bottom-third team at 22.5 a game, twentieth. Las Vegas is the softest defense they have faced in weeks: twenty-eighth in total yards, twenty-fourth against the pass, twenty-sixth in points allowed. The subtraction is Davante Adams, who is on injured reserve, and Stafford has thrown six interceptions while averaging 299 passing yards a game — a volume passer having an untidy season. If the Rams convert yards into points at anything like the league rate here, the twenty-fifth-ranked opponent expected-points figure on the Las Vegas side is the reason.

Rams offense
401.3 total yards a game (3rd) · 288.7 passing (2nd) · but 22.5 points (20th) — raiders.com, 2026-10-21
Raiders defense
371.7 total yards a game (28th) · 237.3 passing (24th) · 27.0 points allowed (26th)
Rams subtraction and form
WR Davante Adams on injured reserve · Stafford 299.0 passing yards a game with 6 INT — SI, 2026-10-20

Source: SI — Rams vs Raiders, Week 7 preview (2026-10-20)

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

McDuffie out again, Kolton Miller limited, and no designations from either club

Close to even

Neither Stafford nor Cousins is on an injury report; the gate passes. Los Angeles: McDuffie a DNP with a groin — "Trent will be a DNP with his groin", and he was inactive last week too — and Landman a DNP in concussion protocol, with Josh Wallace and Colby Parkinson full. No game statuses issued. Las Vegas: Tonka Hemingway a DNP in concussion protocol, with Brock Bowers (hamstring and calf), Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder), left tackle Kolton Miller (shoulder), Quay Walker (chest) and Mike Washington (foot) limited, and five full including two players returning from injured reserve. Miller being limited is the one that bears on the section above: Las Vegas has to pass, and that is the man protecting the passer.

Los Angeles DNP
CB Trent McDuffie (groin, also inactive last week) · ILB Nate Landman (concussion protocol)
Las Vegas limited
TE Brock Bowers (hamstring/calf) · T Kolton Miller (shoulder) · DT Fatukasi (shoulder) · LB Quay Walker (chest) · RB Washington (foot)
Back from injured reserve
Las Vegas: TE Carter Runyon (foot) and WR Dont’e Thornton Jr. (hamstring), both full

Source: raiders.com — Raiders–Rams Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21, 4:36 p.m.)

What this read does not know

  • Kirk Cousins as the Las Vegas starter is weakly sourced. He is named by a preview and appears at quarterback in the club’s own Week 6 photo captions, and he is not on the injury report — but raiders.com’s Week 7 preview does not name a starter. Our gate passes on the absence of any contrary signal, not on a club statement.
  • A Myles Garrett injured-reserve listing appears in one preview only. We found no club-page confirmation and the other report of that date does not mention him. It is an unusual enough roster fact that we did not rely on it, and it does not appear above.
  • The Rams’ third and second defensive ranks predate the Turner and Ford injured-reserve moves and the McDuffie and Landman absences. They overstate the unit that will play. We have flagged that in the text rather than quoting the ranks clean.
  • Las Vegas’s record comes from a preview rather than from the club, whose own Week 7 page describes a three-game losing run without stating a record.
  • One preview assigns game statuses — Out, Questionable — that no club report has issued, and one of its player entries is garbled. We used it for injured-reserve placements only.
  • No Thursday report for either club, and we could not verify 2026 team sack totals or ranks for either.

Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: raiders.com — Game preview: Raiders vs Rams (2026-10-21) · raiders.com — Raiders–Rams Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21) · SI — Rams vs Raiders, Week 7 preview (2026-10-20) · Yahoo — Rams Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 7 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 25
AWAY LAR +3.0
vs LAR -3.5
HOME LV -4.2
Fair (books) · LV 38% home win prob
Kalshi · LV — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Paradise, NV PASS — no position

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Rams

62%

fair value (books)

Raiders

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

59%

Madden 27

41%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Rams at Raiders How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Rams at RaidersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Rams at Raiders Kalshi spread ladder for Week 7: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Rams–Raiders spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Rams vs Raiders power ratings (Week 7) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Los Angeles Rams+3.03rdPlayoff
    Las Vegas Raiders-4.229thBelow Avg

    Rams and Raiders season outlook

    LARLV
    Average wins8.86.9
    Make playoffs42%12%
    Win division9%3%
    Win Super Bowl3.7%0.3%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Rams vs Raiders — player pages

    All players →

    Puka Nacua

    WR

    Ashton Jeanty

    RB

    Brock Bowers

    TE

    Blake Corum

    RB

    Kyren Williams

    RB

    Matthew Stafford

    QB

    Jalen Nailor

    WR

    Tre Tucker

    WR

    Mike Washington Jr.

    RB

    Michael Mayer

    Tyler Higbee

    Konata Mumpfield

    WR

    Kirk Cousins

    Cody White

    Connor Heyward

    Dont'e Thornton Jr.

    LV Raiders D/ST

    Colby Parkinson

    Davis Allen

    LA Rams D/ST

    Tutu Atwell

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Rams at Raiders

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 — the graded call is above.

    The Rams travel to face the Raiders in Week 7. Our power ratings put the Raiders 29th of 32 at -4.2 (Below Avg tier) and the Rams 3rd at +3.0 (Playoff tier) — a 7.2-point gap that home field narrows to a 2.5-point line on the Rams, 57% to win. It rates as the 3rd-widest of the 14 games in Week 7.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.9 (5th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 5.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the Rams defense (+0.3, 6th), a 1.5-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Rams at 8.8 (favored in 13) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 7th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Rams'.

    One team has owned this series: the Rams are 6-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Rams won 20-15 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Rams at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Rams vs Raiders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV
    Market-implied (Raiders)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Raiders)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Raiders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Rams vs Raiders trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueRaidersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig39% 39cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Rams vs Raiders — frequently asked

    Who won Rams vs Raiders in Week 7?

    Los Angeles Rams 35, Las Vegas Raiders 21 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Rams won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Rams vs Raiders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Rams by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Rams vs Raiders?

    Rams offense (+2.9, 5th of 32) against Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th) — 5.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Rams vs Raiders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 36c or below, or the Rams at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Raiders host the Rams?

    Los Angeles Rams visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.

    What does the model project for the Raiders and Rams this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3) and the Rams at 8.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Rams', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs Raiders?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Rams vs Raiders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25LARLV has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Rams?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Rams at 57% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Rams to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 62% against a market price implying 62%, an edge of +0.2 points. Model 62% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 62% on LAR — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Rams: Week 8 vs ChargersModel line →Raiders: Week 8 at JetsModel line →

    More Week 7 matchups

    Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.549ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1

    Full Week 7 board →Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →

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