Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

The model does not think this one is close. The Bills rate 4th of 32 at +4.2, the Dolphins 28th at -3.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Bills by 9.5 — 76% to win. That is the 1st-widest gap among the 13 games on the Week 11 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Dolphins need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 6.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.3 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Dolphins'.

On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.

One team has owned this series: the Bills are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 30-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 139 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 75-80% range won 74% of those. So a 76% Bills number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 26 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 71c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 76%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Dolphins at 19c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.