Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 10 in Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 11 2026 — 71% to win, and the 13th-widest model gap in Week 11. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 66c or below (or Dolphins at 24c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.3
BUF
+3.8
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Dolphins
29%
model win prob
Bills
71%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
23%
Madden 27
77%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 66c or below, or the Dolphins at 24c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Dolphins at Bills
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills −0.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Bills −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −14.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Bills by 10
The model does not think this one is close. The Bills rate 4th of 32 at +3.8, the Dolphins 28th at -3.3, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Bills by 10 — 71% to win. That is the 13th-widest gap among the 13 games on the Week 11 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Dolphins need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 6.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 0.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Dolphins'.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC East race.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Dolphins won 30-13 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Bills number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 66c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 71%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Dolphins at 24c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Bills on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF
- Market-implied (Bills)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bills)
- 71%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bills at 66c or below, or the Dolphins at 24c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Dolphins vs Bills trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bills | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Dolphins vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Bills in Week 11?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 10 points, a 71% win probability over the Dolphins, for a projected score of Bills 30, Dolphins 20 on a ratings-implied 50.0-point total. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+3.8) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Dolphins to win?
The 10-point line comes from a 7.1-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Dolphins still project at 29% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Dolphins defense (-2.7, 28th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 66c or below, or the Dolphins at 24c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Bills?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bills at 66c or below or the Dolphins at 24c or below, off a 10-point line.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Bills on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 11 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV22MIABUF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Bills?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Bills at 71% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 10-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Dolphins–Bills, Week 17 →
More Week 11 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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