Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Chargers by 0 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 16 2026 — 50% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.6 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27LACMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 45c or below (or Chargers at 45c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.4
MIA
-3.0
Chargers
50%
model win prob
Dolphins
50%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27LACMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Chargers at 45c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Chargers–Dolphins is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Dolphins rate -3.0 (28th of 32), the Chargers -0.4 (17th) — 2.6 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 16 in Week 16. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Chargers'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chargers offense grades -0.7 (22nd of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 1.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.4 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Chargers are on 10 days and the Dolphins are on 7 days. The Chargers come in off the 49ers, the Dolphins off the Packers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 16 regular-season meetings since 2002, 10-6 in the Dolphins' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 29-27 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Chargers at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC27LACMIA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 50% / 50% — the tradable window is narrow: Dolphins at 45c or below, Chargers at 45c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Dolphins in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Dolphins. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Chargers 17th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27LACMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Dolphins (-3.0, 28th) and Chargers (-0.4, 17th) are only 2.6 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27LACMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 45c or below, or the Chargers at 45c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Chargers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Chargers at 50% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.