NFL Week 11 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, the Week 11 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability and straight-up winner; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 13 Week 11 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Colts at Texans β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Dolphins at Bills β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Ravens at Panthers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Saints at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Titans at Cowboys β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Buccaneers at Lions β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Cardinals at Chiefs β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jaguars at Giants β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Jets at Chargers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Raiders at Broncos β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Steelers at Eagles β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Vikings at 49ers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bengals at Commanders β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 13 Week 11 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Live: every Week 11 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
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All tools βWeek 11 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 13 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 13 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Colts at Texans Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Dolphins at Bills Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Ravens at Panthers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Saints at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Titans at Cowboys Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Buccaneers at Lions Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Cardinals at Chiefs Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jaguars at Giants Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Jets at Chargers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Raiders at Broncos Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Steelers at Eagles Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Vikings at 49ers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bengals at Commanders Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
NFL Week 11 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 11 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 11 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 13 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 11 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 11 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 13 Week 11 games, with its win probability. Colts at Texans (QB pending); Dolphins at Bills (QB pending); Ravens at Panthers (QB pending); Saints at Bears (QB pending); Titans at Cowboys (QB pending); Buccaneers at Lions (QB pending); Cardinals at Chiefs (QB pending); Jaguars at Giants (QB pending); Jets at Chargers (QB pending); Raiders at Broncos (QB pending); Steelers at Eagles (QB pending); Vikings at 49ers (QB pending); Bengals at Commanders (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 11 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.