NFL Week 11 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 11 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 13 games is the Bills at 71% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 13 Week 11 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- Colts at Texans — Model winner: Texans (64%)
- Dolphins at Bills — Model winner: Bills (71%)
- Ravens at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (51%)
- Saints at Bears — Model winner: Bears (67%)
- Titans at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (67%)
- Buccaneers at Lions — Model winner: Lions (65%)
- Cardinals at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (66%)
- Jaguars at Giants — Model winner: Jaguars (53%)
- Jets at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (66%)
- Raiders at Broncos — Model winner: Broncos (71%)
- Steelers at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (65%)
- Vikings at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (62%)
- Bengals at Commanders — Model winner: Commanders (56%)
All 13 Week 11 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 11 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 13 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Texans over Colts64%—
- Bills over Dolphins71%—
- Panthers over Ravens51%—
- Bears over Saints67%—
- Cowboys over Titans67%—
- Lions over Buccaneers65%—
- Chiefs over Cardinals66%—
- Jaguars over Giants53%—
- Chargers over Jets66%—
- Broncos over Raiders71%—
- Eagles over Steelers65%—
- 49ers over Vikings62%—
- Commanders over Bengals56%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 11 projected scores
- ColtsatTexans19.3–23.743.0
- DolphinsatBills20.0–30.050.0
- RavensatPanthers23.1–23.146.3
- SaintsatBears19.9–26.146.0
- TitansatCowboys21.2–29.150.3
- BuccaneersatLions20.3–25.946.1
- CardinalsatChiefs20.6–26.346.9
- JaguarsatGiants25.0–23.748.6
- JetsatChargers18.1–24.142.2
- RaidersatBroncos16.1–26.042.0
- SteelersatEagles18.8–23.842.6
- Vikingsat49ers22.3–25.948.2
- BengalsatCommanders24.3–26.350.6
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 11 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 11 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 11 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 13 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 11 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 11 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 13 Week 11 games, with its win probability. Texans over Colts (64%); Bills over Dolphins (71%); Panthers over Ravens (51%); Bears over Saints (67%); Cowboys over Titans (67%); Lions over Buccaneers (65%); Chiefs over Cardinals (66%); Jaguars over Giants (53%); Chargers over Jets (66%); Broncos over Raiders (71%); Eagles over Steelers (65%); 49ers over Vikings (62%); Commanders over Bengals (56%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 11?
Projected scores, winner first: Texans 23.7, Colts 19.3; Bills 30.0, Dolphins 20.0; Panthers 23.1, Ravens 23.1; Bears 26.1, Saints 19.9; Cowboys 29.1, Titans 21.2; Lions 25.9, Buccaneers 20.3; Chiefs 26.3, Cardinals 20.6; Jaguars 25.0, Giants 23.7; Chargers 24.1, Jets 18.1; Broncos 26.0, Raiders 16.1; Eagles 23.8, Steelers 18.8; 49ers 25.9, Vikings 22.3; Commanders 26.3, Bengals 24.3. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 11 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.