Jacksonville Jaguars: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of Β· prices live
The prediction-market read on the Jaguars: our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.6 wins in 2026 (6th of 32, Playoff tier; model 10.4), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC South standing below.
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins β LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG β₯2.0 Β· HIGH β₯1.5 Β· MODERATE β₯1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at Β±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model β wins already banked plus the rest of the season β reads 10.4. No single rung sits near 50Β’.
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A live card locked to the Jacksonville Jaguars β projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" β for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EAβs Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
3.85 wins of disagreement
7.01Madden 27
10.58Our sim
10.86Kalshi
3.46.18.911.714.5
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line β our sim at 10.58 and the Madden simulation at 7.01 against 10.86 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Our model is far higher on the Jaguars than Madden is β 5th on play-by-play versus 26th on talent, a 21-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position β the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
Kalshi 10.8601234567891011121314151617
53%
our probability of clearing 10.86
Madden sim: 11% +3.0pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 10.58 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 10.40 Β± 1.60). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Legend
Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
β LOW confidence10.86 Β· Under
Season wins under 10.86
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 10.58 (model 10.40), the Madden 27 simulation 7.01, against 10.86 market-implied wins β a -0.28-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG β₯2.0 Β· HIGH β₯1.5 Β· MODERATE β₯1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Methodology: DAEPA model docs β (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon β the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that gameβs full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range β a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
14Quarterback84
29O-Line76
12Receiver81
23Tight End77
32Running Back76
24Pass Rush80
19Linebacker76
18Secondary80
11Special Teams78
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, Ο=14.4 β those numbers plus the 4-2 already banked sum to the model's 10.4 wins; the 10.6-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
What a trader actually pays, not the mid β the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.
Bhayshul Tuten under 50 rushing yards
Small
50+ rushing yards β NO
You pay
53Β’
Book
47 / 50
Open interest
452
Our number
69.1% (+16.1pp)
Four books have this at a coin flip β 49.9% β and our sim has the under near 69%. That is a real gap on a three-cent book, and it is SMALL for a reason a reader should hear: four hundred and fifty contracts is the thinnest book on this page, and the only outside read is the books calling it even. Our sim thinks this game stays on the ground less than the market does; this row is that one opinion, sized like one.
Where to rest it: Small size, resting at 53 (100 minus the 47 bid). Four hundred contracts is the thinnest book on this card and it will not absorb a large order without moving.
Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) β a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
10.6
10,000 seasons Β· 71% reach 10+
Make playoffs
78%
2% win 6 or fewer
Win division
66%
21% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
8.1%
2nd of 32 Β· 16% reach it
The Jaguars draw a 0.484 opponent win rate β the 25th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model β which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
26
78.7 composite Β· QB 84
Simulated wins
7.0
19% reach 10+
Playoffs
27%
15% win division
Super Bowl
1.0%
SoS 0.507 (11th hardest)
Our model is far higher on the Jaguars than Madden is β 5th on play-by-play versus 26th on talent, a 21-place gap. The production is there; the roster grades don't reflect it.
Madden-only inputs β no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation β
Jaguars 2026 β frequently asked
What is the Jacksonville Jaguars win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 10.9 wins for the Jaguars in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 10.6 wins β a 0.3-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Jaguars rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Jaguars sit at a +2.8-point power rating β 5th of 32 β in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +2.3, defense -0.3, special teams +0.8) is the input behind every Jaguars prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Jacksonville Jaguars games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Jaguars season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets β available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Jaguars in for 2026?
The Jaguars play in the AFC South, alongside Texans, Colts, Titans. Our model has them projected 1st in the AFC South on 10.6 expected wins.
