Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 7.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 10 2026 — 71% to win, and the 3rd-widest model gap in Week 10. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15LARARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 24c or below (or Rams at 66c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LA
+6.3
ARI
-3.6
Rams
71%
model win prob
Cardinals
29%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15LARARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 24c or below, or the Rams at 66c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Rams by 7.5
The visitors are the ones with the rating edge, and it is big enough that home field does not touch it. The Rams grade +6.3 (1st of 32) to -3.6 for the Cardinals (30th); even after handing the Cardinals their 2.5 points, the line is Rams by 7.5 and 71% to win. Road favorites of this size are the 3rd-widest gap on the 14-game Week 10 board. The caution is the usual one: a preseason rating knows nothing about who is healthy in the back half of the season.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 7.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 2.6-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16) — 4.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 4th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Rams'.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 6, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC West race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Rams' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Rams won 37-20 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Rams number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15LARARI — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Rams YES is only worth buying at 66c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 71%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Cardinals at 24c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Cardinals in Week 10?
Our power-rating model favors the Rams by 7.5 points, a 71% win probability over the Cardinals. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Rams 1st (+6.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15LARARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Cardinals to win?
The 7.5-point line comes from a 9.9-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Cardinals still project at 29% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Cardinals defense (-2.9, 29th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15LARARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 24c or below, or the Rams at 66c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16). This game ranks 4th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Rams?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Rams at 71% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 6. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Rams–Cardinals, Week 6 →
More Week 10 matchups
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