Gridiron EdgeAFC West

Denver Broncos: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge

The prediction-market read on the Broncos: our DAEPA model projects 9.0 wins in 2026 (11th of 32, Average tier), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC West standing below.

2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi

Model projection

9.0

±2.0 wins

Kalshi market

9.6

KXNFLWINS-27DEN

Edge

-0.3

wins

Model agrees with the market

Edge (raw model−market) flagged at ±2.50 wins this week. No single rung sits near 50¢.

See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.

Power rating breakdown

Overall

+1.2

13th · Average

Offense

+0.6

points/gm

Defense

+0.4

points/gm

Special teams

+0.2

points/gm

Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (66.2% backtested game accuracy across 6,218 games).

2026 schedule & model win probabilities

All 17 regular-season games. Win probability is the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=13.5. The sum of these 17 numbers is the 9.0-win projection above.

WeekOpponentH/AWin %

Wk 1at Kansas City ChiefsAWAY48%

Wk 2vs Jacksonville JaguarsHOME53%

Wk 3vs Los Angeles RamsHOME42%

Wk 4at San Francisco 49ersAWAY44%

Wk 5at Los Angeles ChargersAWAY47%

Wk 6vs Seattle SeahawksHOME46%

Wk 7at Arizona CardinalsAWAY57%

Wk 8vs Kansas City ChiefsHOME62%

Wk 9at Carolina PanthersAWAY52%

Wk 11vs Las Vegas RaidersHOME76%

Wk 12at Pittsburgh SteelersAWAY48%

Wk 13vs Miami DolphinsHOME69%

Wk 14at New York JetsAWAY58%

Wk 15at Las Vegas RaidersAWAY63%

Wk 16vs Buffalo BillsHOME49%

Wk 17at New England PatriotsAWAY31%

Wk 18vs Los Angeles ChargersHOME62%

AFC West projected standing

Division hub →

#TeamProj WPWR

1Denver Broncos9.0+1.2

2Kansas City Chiefs8.2-0.5

3Los Angeles Chargers8.2-0.4

4Las Vegas Raiders5.6-5.8

Broncos 2026 — frequently asked

What is the Denver Broncos win total for 2026?

The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 9.6 wins for the Broncos in 2026. Our DAEPA power-rating model projects 9.0 wins — a 0.3-win agreement with the market.

Where do the Broncos rank in our 2026 power ratings?

The Broncos sit at a +1.2-point power rating — 13th of 32 — in the Average tier. That rating (offense +0.6, defense +0.4, special teams +0.2) is the input behind every Broncos prediction-market edge we publish.

Can you trade Denver Broncos games on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Broncos season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.