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Home/NFL/Week 1/Broncos vs Chiefs
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026AFC West rivalry

Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31

Final. The rematch: Chiefs vs Broncos, Week 8 →

Updated · market price

Monday, September 14, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Quick Answer

Final (Monday, September 14, 2026): Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Chiefs by 0.5 (53% to win); the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chiefs at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game model had the Chiefs by 0.5 (53% to win). The Chiefs won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Chiefs: -1c — we archived the Chiefs at 56c on Sep 8; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Sep 14. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kansas City 31, Denver 10: Kenneth Walker ran for 173 and the total landed on 41

Patrick Mahomes returned from the knee, scored on the opening drive and threw for two more, but the night belonged to the back Kansas City signed in free agency. Kenneth Walker III carried 23 times for 173 yards — the most by a Chief since Jamaal Charles in 2012 — and Denver, with a new play-caller and a traded-for receiver, managed 176 yards and nine first downs. We were on the other side of both markets we published.

Broncos 10—Chiefs 31

Final✓ Call hit

The chip above grades the model’s directional read, and it held: 53.0% on Kansas City, Kansas City by twenty-one. Everything we actually published on this game lost, and the two positions lost in different ways. The moneyline row was written on 2026-08-30, two weeks before kickoff, off a read that had Denver at 47.0% against a Kansas City price of 56.5c — a 3.5-point gap, tiered LOW, published as Denver at 43.5c. Denver closed at 45.5c, so the market came two cents our way before the game went twenty-one points the other. That is minus 44 cents a contract on a position that was never the model’s favorite; a position is a disagreement with a price, and this one disagreed with a price that turned out to be too kind to Denver rather than too hard on it. The second position was the total, and it is the one to own carefully. Our engine did not like the under. Its own centre sat at 40.8, above the 40.5 line. It published the under because the market’s 58c on the over implied a centre near 43, and the wind read — fifteen miles an hour in the forecast, a 2.4-point penalty — said 41. Published as NO at 43.5c, MODERATE, closed unchanged, and the game finished 31-10: forty-one points, half a point over the line. The wind number was almost exactly right about the game and still lost, which is what a coin flip priced at 43c looks like from the wrong side. On the player board the final run carried six visible calls and one of them held. Bo Nix over 0.5 passing touchdowns (HIGH) resolved on the 19-yard throw to Evan Engram. The other five were all Denver and all wrong the same way: Pat Bryant under 2.5 and under 3.5 receptions (he caught four), RJ Harvey under 14.5 receiving yards (23) and under 2.5 receptions (four), and Harvey over 24.5 rushing yards (18, on three carries). We projected Harvey at 30 yards on the ground and 2.4 catches; Denver gave him three carries and threw to him four times, so the engine had the shape of the Denver offense backwards — the backs caught the ball and did not run it. The larger Denver miss never reached the board: every Jaylen Waddle strike was FLAGGED, stored for grading and never shown, and he caught one ball for two yards against a 66-yard projection. That is the gate doing its job on the night it mattered. Kansas City’s three Mahomes passing-yards strikes all sit at under and all would have resolved under (184 yards); the stat is suppressed, the board never showed them, and they are not a record. WATCH rows are graded apart: Harvey over 9.5 and over 14.5 rushing yards and Mahomes over 9.5 and over 14.5 resolved over, Harvey over 19.5, Noah Gray over 1.5 receptions and Tyquan Thornton over 1.5 did not, and Adam Trautman over 1.5 did. Nothing in that group was published.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Chiefs −2.5 → Chiefs −2.5
Total
42.5 → 42.5
Moneyline
DEN +130 / KC −155 → DEN +110 / KC −130

The spread did not move.

How it happened

Q1

An interception on the third play, then Mahomes answered the knee question on his feet

Mansoor Delane, the sixth pick in the draft, intercepted Bo Nix on Denver’s third snap and landed on his right shoulder doing it; he did not return. Mahomes, nine months to the day from the knee injury and wearing a brace, took the opening drive 15 yards into the end zone himself with 8:11 left in the quarter. Nix found Evan Engram from 19 to tie it four minutes later, and that was Denver’s last touchdown.

Mahomes
15/27 · 184 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · 15-yd rush TD
Denver touchdowns after the first quarter
0

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Ten plays, eighty yards, and Rice bounced off two defenders for the halftime lead

Walker had 89 yards on 14 carries by the break and carried most of the 80-yard drive that ended with Mahomes finding Rashee Rice from 13 with 1:39 left in the half. Rice, back from a knee injury of his own, ran through two Broncos to get there. Denver went 2-for-12 on third down on the night and did not score in the quarter.

Halftime
Chiefs 14, Broncos 7
Walker, first half
14 car · 89 yds
Denver third down
2 of 12

ESPN — box score

Q3

Fourth-and-one became a 60-yard touchdown, then the teams traded interceptions for field goals

Kansas City went for it on fourth-and-1 early in the third quarter and Walker bounced outside for 60 yards and a 21-7 lead. Brandon Jones then picked off Mahomes deep in Chiefs territory and Denver turned it into a 31-yard Wil Lutz field goal; Mahomes answered with a 59-yard throw to Travis Kelce that set up Harrison Butker from 28. Walker’s 173 yards were the most by a Chiefs back since Jamaal Charles ran for 226 in 2012.

Walker
23 car · 173 yds · 1 rush TD · 1 rec TD
Kansas City rushing
38 car · 220 yds
Kelce
3 rec · 71 yds · long 59

AP — Walker’s two touchdowns in his Chiefs debut

Q4

A Nix fumble, a 26-yard third-down catch, and a play out of 1930s film

Nix lost a fumble on the possession after the Butker kick — he put the ball on the ground three times and lost that one — and Mahomes hit rookie Emmett Johnson for 26 on third down to reach the Denver 2. From there Mahomes lined up in a three-point stance beside Justin Fields, took the snap and shoveled to Walker, who walked in for 31-10 with 14:39 to play. Reid said the staff found the play in black-and-white footage. Denver finished with 176 yards, nine first downs and four sacks allowed.

Nix
17/28 · 131 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · 4 sacks · 1 lost fumble
Denver total yards
176 on 12 drives
Final total
41 points against a closing 42.5

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The DraftKings total via ESPN (42.5 open and close) and the Kalshi strike we published (over 40.5, ticker KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP14DENKC-41) are different lines on different venues. The 41-point final cleared the Kalshi line by half a point and fell under the DraftKings line by a point and a half. Both statements are true; the position graded on the Kalshi contract.
  • No Kenneth Walker strike appears in the final run for this game. This recap cannot tell from the ledger whether Kalshi listed no market the engine matched or whether no strike cleared the edge floor, and does not guess. The best player on the field was not on our board either way.
  • The moneyline position row predates the market-anchored moneyline (v2.3, 2026-09-14) and the 12-point game-market refusal (2026-09-13); it was written under the earlier rules and is graded here as written. The stored fair-value row this page grades from carries updated_at 2026-09-14 12:01 UTC, twelve hours before kickoff, which is pre-game for this game.
  • The wind figure (15 mph, 2.4-point penalty) is the engine’s forecast read at run time, not a measured game-time reading; ESPN’s summary carried no weather block for this game.
  • This recap does not know what the market did during the game. The 45.5c Denver close is the last archived pre-kickoff price; the settled book on the strip above is the record of the settlement, not a price anyone traded.

Reporting verified 2026-09-15. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Walker runs all over Denver, Mahomes looks healthy · ESPN — box score · AP — Walker’s two touchdowns in his Chiefs debut · AP — Mahomes’ return from the knee

The trench read: a rookie right tackle meets the league's best pass-rush duo, on Monday night

Denver arrives with the top-graded offensive line in football and a Pro Bowl edge pairing; Kansas City may line up an undrafted rookie at tackle in front of a quarterback nine months removed from a torn ACL. The board above passes on the game line, and this section does not argue with it. What it does is name the two mismatches that decide how Monday night gets played.

Broncos protection · Chiefs pass rush

Denver's No. 1 offensive line meets a solid-but-not-elite Chiefs front

Edge: Broncos

PFF grades Denver's line first in the league, and all five starters return. Garett Bolles allowed the lowest pressure rate of any left tackle last season and Quinn Meinerz is a back-to-back first-team All-Pro. Kansas City answers with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, a good pairing that produced steady pressure but not a dominant one. This is the side of the ball where Bo Nix should have time.

Broncos O-line, PFF 2026 rank
1st — all five starters return
Bolles, 2025
Lowest pressure rate of any LT
Jones · Karlaftis, 2025
7 sacks / 63 pressures · 6 sacks / 66 pressures

Source: PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings

Chiefs protection · Broncos edge

Kansas City may start an undrafted rookie at tackle in front of Mahomes

Edge: Broncos

Josh Simmons did not practice Thursday with the back problem that cost him most of camp, and Andy Reid said there is a good chance he does not play. If he sits, Jaylon Moore and undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson fill the two tackle spots — Reid says the staff is comfortable with Benson on either side. Across from them: Nik Bonitto, who signed a $106 million extension after a 14-sack season, and Jonathon Cooper. This is the single biggest trench mismatch in the game, and the Chiefs know it.

Simmons (LT, back)
DNP Thursday — Reid: "good chance" he sits
Bonitto, 2025
14 sacks · 4-yr/$106M extension
If Simmons sits
Moore + UDFA Kahlil Benson at tackle

Source: Arrowhead Report — Chiefs injury report: Simmons, Mahomes, Conner

Broncos boundary · Chiefs receivers

Pat Surtain II against a Chiefs receiver room missing its best option

Edge: Broncos

Surtain is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. He gets a Kansas City passing game without Rashee Rice, who is serving a six-game suspension, and with Xavier Worthy managing a shoulder but practicing fully. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the primary replacement, and Travis Kelce, in his fourteenth season, is the one proven target left standing. Denver can afford to put Surtain on the receiver it fears and bracket the rest.

Rashee Rice
6-game suspension — out
Xavier Worthy (shoulder)
Full practice — playing
Surtain
Reigning PFWA Defensive Player of the Year

Source: Fox Sports — Chiefs brace for Rice's six-game suspension

Chiefs boundary · Broncos receivers

Denver's overhauled receiver room gets its first live look, against Trent McDuffie

Close to even

Denver sent a first, a third and a fourth to Miami for Jaylen Waddle in March, a speed element the room did not have next to Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin. McDuffie has been one of the steadiest corners in the league for four seasons. This is the matchup that tells you whether Denver's passing game has a new ceiling or just a new name.

Waddle trade, March 2026
2026 1st + 3rd + 4th to MIA

Source: CBS Sports — Waddle trade analysis

Chiefs run offense · Broncos run defense

Kansas City's run game meets the league's No. 2 run defense

Edge: Broncos

The Chiefs were a bottom-third rushing offense last season even after adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency, and Denver allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. If Kansas City cannot run behind a patched tackle, it is throwing into Surtain's secondary on third-and-long all night. This is the clearest statistical mismatch in the game.

Chiefs rushing, 2025
106.6 yds/gm — 24th
Broncos rush defense, 2025
91.1 yds/gm allowed — 2nd

Source: FootballDB — 2025 team rushing offense

Broncos run offense · Chiefs run defense

Denver's run game against a Chiefs run defense that actually held up

Close to even

Denver was a middle-of-the-league rushing offense behind J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey is reported fully healthy after labrum surgery. Kansas City's run defense ranked ninth, which makes this the stronger side of the Chiefs' defense and the one place their front is not outmatched. Denver's line is elite in pass protection; whether it moves this front on the ground is a fairer fight.

Broncos rushing, 2025
118.7 yds/gm — 16th
Chiefs rush defense, 2025
105.7 yds/gm allowed — 9th

Source: Fox Sports — 2025 defense rankings, pass and rush

Quarterbacks

Two quarterbacks, two recoveries, one division on the line

Close to even

Patrick Mahomes is roughly nine months out from a torn ACL, practiced fully with the first team all week and is cleared for Monday night. Bo Nix is fully recovered from the fractured ankle that ended his postseason. The backdrop: Denver swept Kansas City last season, including its first win at Arrowhead since 2015, and ended the Chiefs' nine-year run atop the AFC West. Kansas City has had all offseason to think about that.

Mahomes
Full practice all week — cleared, ~9 months post-ACL
Broncos vs Chiefs, 2025
Swept — first Arrowhead win since 2015

Source: Bleacher Report — Mahomes gives Week 1 status update

What this read does not know

  • Josh Simmons' status is a Thursday, September 10 report — did not practice, Reid saying there is a good chance he sits — not a final call. This is a Monday game, so the final designation lands Saturday. The second unit is written assuming he is out; if he plays, the biggest-mismatch framing softens.
  • Which rookie plays tackle if Simmons sits, and on which side, has not been announced. Reid has said the staff is comfortable with Kahlil Benson on either side, and Jaylon Moore has played the left.
  • Individual 2025 sack totals for Broncos linemen Zach Allen and Jonathon Cooper were not confirmed, so none are cited.
  • No numeric PFF grade or interception count was found for Surtain's Defensive Player of the Year season beyond the award itself.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Chiefs — official Week 1 injury report · Arrowhead Report — Chiefs injury report: Simmons, Mahomes, Conner · Mile High Huddle — first Broncos–Chiefs injury report · Broncos — Monday Night Football opener announcement · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · Chiefs — pre-camp defensive line breakdown

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 1 MODEL LINE
Mon, Sep 14
AWAY DEN +1.8
vs KC -0.5
HOME KC +0.4
Model · KC 53% home win prob
Kalshi · KC 50¢ yes mid
Edge +3.0pp model − market
📍 Kansas City, MO PASS — no edge

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Broncos

47%

our model

Chiefs

53%

our model

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

36%

Madden 27

64%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Broncos at Chiefs How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Broncos at ChiefsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Broncos at Chiefs Kalshi spread ladder for Week 1: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Broncos–Chiefs spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Broncos vs Chiefs power ratings (Week 1) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Denver Broncos+1.89thPlayoff
    Kansas City Chiefs+0.416thAverage

    Broncos and Chiefs season outlook

    DENKC
    Average wins10.910.6
    Make playoffs79%78%
    Win division49%48%
    Win Super Bowl6.7%4.4%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Broncos vs Chiefs — player pages

    All players →

    Rashee Rice

    WR

    Kenneth Walker III

    RB

    Jaylen Waddle

    WR

    Courtland Sutton

    WR

    J.K. Dobbins

    RB

    Xavier Worthy

    WR

    RJ Harvey

    RB

    Patrick Mahomes

    QB

    Bo Nix

    QB

    Travis Kelce

    TE

    Emmett Johnson

    RB

    DEN Broncos D/ST

    Jonah Coleman

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Broncos–Chiefs is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 — the graded call is above.

    The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Broncos rate +1.8 (9th of 32) against +0.4 for the Chiefs (16th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Chiefs anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 5th-closest of the 16 games in Week 1, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.6 projected wins for the Chiefs against 10.9 for the Broncos, favored in 10 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Broncos'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -1.0 (16th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (+1.3, 12th) meets the Broncos defense (+1.2, 5th), a 0.1-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 8, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.

    Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Chiefs at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC contract implies 50% for the Chiefs against our 53% — a 3.0-point gap. No position on this game.

    Full division picture on the AFC West hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Broncos vs Chiefs on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC
    Market-implied (Chiefs)
    50c · 50%
    Our ratings line (Chiefs)
    held — QB pending
    Model vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 53% for the Chiefs. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Broncos vs Chiefs trades Why the venues differ →

    2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

    VenueChiefsTrade
    Kalshi50% 50cTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig54% 54cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contract50% 50cOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Broncos vs Chiefs, Week 1 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/broncos-vs-chiefs-week-01-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Broncos vs Chiefs

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    Broncos vs Chiefs — frequently asked

    Who won Broncos vs Chiefs in Week 1?

    Denver Broncos 10, Kansas City Chiefs 31 — final, played Monday, September 14, 2026; our pre-game model had the Chiefs by 0.5 (53% to win), and the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Broncos vs Chiefs before kickoff?

    Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Chiefs by 0.5 points, a 53% win probability over the Broncos. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Chiefs (+0.4, 16th) and Broncos (+1.8, 9th) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Broncos vs Chiefs?

    The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Chiefs YES is quoted around 50c against our 53% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Chiefs host the Broncos?

    Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday, September 14, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 1, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.

    What does the model project for the Chiefs and Broncos this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 10.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Broncos at 10.9 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Broncos', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Broncos vs Chiefs?

    Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC. The Chiefs YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our ratings line's 53%. That is a 3.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

    Could you trade Broncos vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Chiefs?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Chiefs at 52% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Chiefs hub →Broncos hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 1 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 8. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Broncos–Chiefs, Week 8 →

    Next up for each team

    Broncos: Week 2 vs JaguarsModel line →Chiefs: Week 2 vs ColtsModel line →

    More Week 1 matchups

    Patriots at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −2.549ers at RamsModel: Rams −4Bears at PanthersModel: Bears −0.5Buccaneers at BengalsModel: Bengals −2.5Saints at LionsModel: Lions −7.5Bills at TexansModel: Texans −0.5Ravens at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Browns at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −7.5Falcons at SteelersModel: Steelers −2.5Jets at TitansModel: Titans −3Cardinals at ChargersModel: Chargers −5.5Dolphins at RaidersModel: evenPackers at VikingsModel: Packers −3Commanders at EaglesModel: Eagles −6.5Cowboys at GiantsModel: even

    Full Week 1 board →Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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    One of 64 games in the first-quarter report

    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

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