New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 11 in New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 18 2026 — 74% to win, and the 16th-widest model gap in Week 18. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 69c or below (or Jets at 21c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYJ
-4.0
BUF
+3.8
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Jets
26%
model win prob
Bills
74%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
27%
Madden 27
73%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 69c or below, or the Jets at 21c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Jets at Bills
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills −0.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Bills −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bills −14.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Bills by 11
The model does not think this one is close. The Bills rate 4th of 32 at +3.8, the Jets 31st at -4.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Bills by 11 — 74% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 18 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Jets need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.1 (26th) — 6.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 2.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.4 (17th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Bills' entire schedule.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 10, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Bills' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Bills won 35-8 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 4-0. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 74% Bills number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Bills YES is only worth buying at 69c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 74%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Jets at 21c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Bills on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF
- Market-implied (Bills)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bills)
- 74%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bills at 69c or below, or the Jets at 21c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Jets vs Bills trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bills | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jets vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Bills in Week 18?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 11 points, a 74% win probability over the Jets, for a projected score of Bills 29, Jets 18 on a ratings-implied 47.8-point total. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+3.8) and the Jets 31st (-4.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Jets to win?
The 11-point line comes from a 7.8-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Jets still project at 26% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 69c or below, or the Jets at 21c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Bills?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bills at 69c or below or the Jets at 21c or below, off a 11-point line.
Can you trade Jets vs Bills on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 18 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN10NYJBUF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 74% on a team like the Bills?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Bills at 74% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 11-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Jets–Bills, Week 10 →
More Week 18 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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