Free Prediction Market Tools
29 quant tools for Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings traders. Bread & butter to advanced — one page.
Each tool is named for the question it answers. The Bread & Butter section is what you'll come back to daily. Advanced is heavier math — read the methodology first. Utilities are quick-reference. Below the toolkit you'll find Live Data Widgets — auto-refreshing dashboards (Fed Rate Tracker, S&P 500 Forecast, etc.) that you can also embed on your own site. Free tools work without an account; Pro unlocks at $14.99.
New here? Read the Plain English guide → · Want to embed live data on your site? Browse embeddable widgets →
The Bread & Butter
The 22 tools traders actually use. Named for the question they answer.
For AI agents: how do I call PredictionMarketsPicks tools from Claude, ChatGPT, or Cursor?
MCP Server
Call our quant tools from Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, or Copilot. Six free calculators — EV, Kelly, Bayesian, odds conversion, base-rate gaps, combo grading — plus Pro edge tools, on the official MCP registry. Remote (Streamable HTTP), no install.
Kalshi same game parlay: how do I price correlated same-game combos on Kalshi?
Combo Edge Builder
The free Kalshi same-game combo builder — NFL every week of the season, soccer when that board is live. Kalshi prices every leg standalone with zero correlation adjustment, so this computes the true joint probability off a scoreline model, turns it into a fair-value odds band, and grades the quote your platform gives you with a plain, color-coded verdict (SMASH → PLAY IT → LEAN → PASS → RUN AWAY) — correlation bonus, EV and quarter-Kelly sizing under the hood, all free, no leg cap.
Thee Oracle dashboard: what are today's biggest prediction-market moves?
Thee Oracle
Historical cross-platform edge data + live market flow → Claude AI → a structured reading. Patterns, divergence signals, and the three markets you should be watching right now.
Weather Edge tool: how do I trade Kalshi temperature markets?
Weather Edge
Live NWS forecast vs. Kalshi daily-high threshold markets across 13 cities. Normal distribution model → edge signal, EV, and quarter Kelly sizing. Discord alerts twice daily after each NWS forecast update.
Silver Edge tool: where is silver headed this week?
Silver Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXSILVERW strike. XAG/USD silver spot, Brent-recovered IV, signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Gold Edge tool: where is gold headed this week?
Gold Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXGOLDW strike. XAU/USD gold spot, deepest commodity ETF options book ($65B AUM), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Oil Edge tool: which Kalshi KXWTI strikes are mispriced?
Oil Edge
Live snapshot of options-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXWTI WTI strike. Yahoo CL=F WTI spot, USO options chain (largest US oil ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours with an OPEC ±5-day haircut.
Bitcoin Edge tool: which Kalshi KXBTCD strikes are mispriced?
Bitcoin Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXBTCD strike. BRTI-constituent spot, IBIT options-implied probability (deepest US spot-BTC ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. KXBTCD settles hourly on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average; picks published 10am–4pm ET during US market hours.
Kalshi bitcoin 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Bitcoin Edge 15-Min
Kalshi lists a new KXBTC15M bitcoin contract every 15 minutes, 24/7, settling on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average at the close. Every window live: the countdown with the settlement-averaging band, the market's odds in plain English, how fast bitcoin is moving and what that price has meant in past windows — plus the one hourly call our own bot trades on Kalshi (this version of our top-of-hour momentum strategy), with its paper and live record in public.
Kalshi gold 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Gold Edge 15-Min
Kalshi lists a new KXGOLD15M gold contract every 15 minutes, settling on Pyth 1-minute candle closes. Once a window opens its reference price is locked, so fair value becomes arithmetic — computed live from distance to strike, time left and realized volatility, with no directional call. Draws the round-trip fee band most windows never clear.
Kalshi silver 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Silver Edge 15-Min
The KXSILVER15M sibling — one up-or-down silver contract per 15-minute window, settling on Pyth 1-minute candle closes. Live fair value from the locked reference price, plus the quadratic fee band that decides whether any gap is worth acting on. Thinner book than gold; sized accordingly.
Kalshi oil 15-minute markets: what is the current WTI window actually worth?
WTI Edge 15-Min
The KXWTI15M oil window — one up-or-down WTI contract every 15 minutes. Kalshi settles it on a Pyth oil index the public cannot read, so we price on a live front-month futures proxy checked every window against Kalshi's own settlement prints, and draw the fee band that decides whether any gap is worth acting on.
Gas price forecast: will gas prices go up or down next week?
Gas Price Forecast (The Pump Line)
Where the national average gas price lands in 1, 7 and 14 days — published free every day with a permanent public accuracy record. 3,200+ graded forecasts, misses included. Beats a no-change assumption by 38% at one week.
Kelly Criterion calculator: how much should I stake on a prediction market?
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Enter your probability estimate, market price, and bankroll — get the correct position size instantly. Full, half, quarter, and eighth Kelly with automatic EV check. Never overbet a good edge again.
Bayes updater: how do I update my probability when news breaks?
Bayes Updater
Start with a prior probability, add evidence items one at a time, and watch your belief update at each step using Bayes theorem. Chain up to 5 evidence items with real-time probability shifts.
Kalshi vs Polymarket price gaps: which venue is cheaper for the same contract?
Kalshi vs Polymarket Price Gaps
The same contract on Kalshi and Polymarket, priced side by side net of each venue’s real fee and spread — so you buy on the cheaper venue. Sports game lines plus political markets. Top gap free; the full board is Pro.
Kalshi ladder arbitrage: which college football and NFL spread ladders are priced out of order?
Ladder Arb Scanner
Every Kalshi CFB and NFL spread and total ladder checked for strikes priced out of order — a higher strike quoted above a lower one is impossible by arithmetic, no model needed. Locked arbitrage, crossed mids with the resting orders that capture them, and wide books worth making a market in. Full board free; Pro adds the orders, net-of-fee edge and ¼-Kelly.
EV calculator: what's my expected value on this trade?
EV Calculator
Enter the market price and your probability estimate — get edge %, BUY/SELL/SKIP signal, and interpretation instantly. Know whether a trade is worth making before you click.
Kalshi fees calculator: how much are Kalshi trading fees?
Kalshi Fee Calculator
Enter a contract price and size — get the exact Kalshi trading fee, break-even price, and round-trip cost. Fees follow 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), so they peak at the 50¢ coin flip and vanish at the extremes. Full maker/taker fee curve included.
Novig fee calculator: does Novig charge fees?
Novig Fee Calculator
Work out the exact Novig fee on any trade. Pregame game trades are free; live fills and NFL, college football, MLB, NBA, WNBA and NHL futures pay a small taker fee that peaks at 50¢, and makers never pay. Shown beside the same trade on Kalshi.
Kalshi perps calculator: where does my perp get liquidated?
Kalshi Perps Calculator
Liquidation price from Kalshi’s own risk parameters, round-trip fees, funding over your hold, and the Kalshi event contract that pays out if you get liquidated.
Base rate scanner: what's the historical probability of this outcome?
Base Rate Scanner
Compare current market prices against historical base rates across 12 event categories — Fed decisions, elections, GDP, Bitcoin, and more. Spot when markets diverge from history.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every edge engine on the site, live — $150/yr
Pro opens every engine on the site — the full silver, gold, oil and bitcoin strike grids that price commodity contracts in real time, Thee Oracle, Theta Edge, and the full cross-venue price-gap board.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
For Advanced Users
Heavier math. Read the methodology before you fire.
KL-divergence detector: how do I find statistical arbitrage between markets?
KL-Divergence Arb Detector
Paste YES prices from any two prediction market platforms on the same event. Get an instant ARB FLAGGED signal using KL divergence — the information-theoretic measure of how inconsistent two probability distributions are.
Theta edge calculator: how does time decay affect prediction-market prices?
Theta Edge
Binary options time-value calculator — paste a contract’s price, days to close, and IV; FV = Φ(logit(p) / (σ × √τ)) returns fair value with the BS-d2 model. BUY/SELL signal with decay curve.
Conflict hedge calculator: how do I hedge against a geopolitical shock?
Conflict Hedge Calculator
How much do you need in war prediction contracts to offset your portfolio getting obliterated? Enter your sector, portfolio size, and conflict scenario — get the exact hedge position with historical drawdown data.
Utilities
Quick reference. Open, use, close.
NFL power ratings 2026: PWR for all 32 teams, agent-callable
NFL Power Ratings
PWR for all 32 NFL teams — a defense-adjusted power number in points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
NFL win probability calculator: what does a -7 spread mean
NFL Win Probability
Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — using the Gridiron Edge scoring-margin model.
Probability converter: how do I convert Kalshi cents to probability?
Kalshi Odds Converter
Convert Kalshi prices (in cents) to implied probability, decimal odds, and American odds. Understand fair value and estimate vig instantly.
State availability map: where can I legally trade prediction markets?
State Availability Map
Which states can you legally trade on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions, and FanDuel Predicts? Full state-by-state availability map.
Combo builder: how do I stack multiple prediction-market positions?
Kalshi Parlay Calculator
Build multi-leg Kalshi combos and see combined probability, cost, payout multiplier, and break-even hit rate. Unlock EV rating with Picks Pro.
Live Data Widgets
Embed on your site →Fed Rate Tracker
Live Kalshi probabilities for all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print — quantifies the exact pp shift for each outcome. CME FedWatch built on real prediction market prices.
Recession Probability Gauge
Market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi. Live NBER-contract gauge with quarterly breakdown. Embeddable on any site.
Macro Pulse
Live FRED macro indicators (rates, growth, inflation, labor, housing, credit) compiled into a single 0–100 risk-on/risk-off readout. Daily refresh.
S&P 500 Year-End Forecast
Crowd-sourced probability distribution of S&P 500 year-end levels from 27 Kalshi bracket markets. Mode, implied median, tail risk — where is the market pricing the index?
Inflation Tracker
Market-implied CPI probability distribution from Kalshi — where does the crowd think inflation lands? Headline and core CPI, derived marginal brackets, implied median.
2026 Midterms Tracker
Live odds for the 2026 US midterms — the closest Senate and House races plus balance-of-power chamber control, sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket. Updated every 15 minutes.
Government Shutdown Tracker
Live probability of a US government shutdown from Kalshi prediction markets. Active markets display when a budget deadline is approaching; clean empty state between deadlines.
NFL Widgets
NFL prediction-market widgets — our model vs the live Kalshi price per game, per team and per week. One iframe each, free to preview; the game tile and team card fit a 300×250 or 728×90 ad slot.
Use these calculators from your AI agent
EV, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updates, odds conversion, base rates and Combo Edge are also tools on the free PredictionMarketsPicks MCP server — Claude, ChatGPT, Grok or Cursor calls them for you and links back to the same page here. One connector, no API key.
The MCP server and every tool on it →Join The 7 Oracles Discord
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