Free Prediction Market Tools
Thirteen quant tools for Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings traders — EV calculator, Kelly sizing, Bayes updater, cross-platform arb scanner, and more. Six free. Seven Pro. One page.
This is the index page for our full toolkit — the free tools work without an account, the Pro tools unlock with a $14.99 subscription. Below you'll find the Quant Tools section (inputs + formulas you run yourself) and the Live Data Widgets section (auto-refreshing embeddable dashboards like the Fed Rate Tracker and S&P 500 Forecast). Each card links to the dedicated tool page with full methodology, worked examples, and embed codes. If you're new to prediction market math, start with the EV Calculator and the Plain English guide.
New here? Read the Plain English guide → · Want to embed live data on your site? Browse embeddable widgets →
Quant Tools
EV Calculator
Enter the market price and your probability estimate — get edge %, BUY/SELL/SKIP signal, and interpretation instantly. Know whether a trade is worth making before you click.
Probability Converter
Convert Kalshi prices (in cents) to implied probability, decimal odds, and American odds. Understand fair value and estimate vig instantly.
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Enter your probability estimate, market price, and bankroll — get the correct position size instantly. Full, half, quarter, and eighth Kelly with automatic EV check. Never overbet a good edge again.
Conflict Hedge Calculator
How much do you need in war prediction contracts to offset your portfolio getting obliterated? Enter your sector, portfolio size, and conflict scenario — get the exact hedge position with historical drawdown data.
State Availability Map
Which states can you legally trade on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions, and FanDuel Predicts? Full state-by-state availability map.
Combo Builder
Build multi-leg Kalshi combos and see combined probability, cost, payout multiplier, and break-even hit rate. Unlock EV rating with Picks Pro.
Bayes Updater
Start with a prior probability, add evidence items one at a time, and watch your belief update at each step using Bayes theorem. Chain up to 5 evidence items with real-time probability shifts.
Base Rate Scanner
Compare current market prices against historical base rates across 12 event categories — Fed decisions, elections, GDP, Bitcoin, and more. Spot when markets diverge from history.
KL-Divergence Arb Detector
Paste YES prices from any two prediction market platforms on the same event. Get an instant ARB FLAGGED signal using KL divergence — the information-theoretic measure of how inconsistent two probability distributions are.
Thee Oracle
Historical cross-platform edge data + live market flow → Claude AI → a structured reading. Patterns, divergence signals, and the three markets you should be watching right now.
Cross-Platform Arb Scanner
Live scan for price divergences between Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings. Political scanner + Sports scanner in one tool. ARB FLAGGED when the gap is exploitable. Picks Pro.
Polymarket Mispricing Scanner
Daily Bayesian swarm scan of Polymarket — two AI agents (Kalshi cross-reference + Claude NLP) flag mispricings ≥5pp with Kelly sizing. High-confidence alerts sent to Pro subscribers.
Theta Edge
The crowd prices probability. Not time. Apply the binary options time-value model — FV = Φ(logit(p) / (σ × √τ)) — to find contracts where the market is ignoring theta. BUY/SELL signal with decay curve.
Silver Edge
Daily snapshot of options-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXSILVERW strike. Pyth XAG/USD spot, Brent-recovered IV, signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Direct Kalshi + SLV options links per row.
Weather Edge Tool
Live NWS forecast vs. Kalshi daily-high threshold markets across 13 cities. Normal distribution model → edge signal, EV, and quarter Kelly sizing. Discord alerts twice daily after each NWS forecast update.
Live Data Widgets
Embed on your site →Fed Rate Tracker
Live Kalshi probabilities for all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print — quantifies the exact pp shift for each outcome. CME FedWatch built on real prediction market prices.
Recession Probability Gauge
Market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi. Live NBER-contract gauge with quarterly breakdown. Embeddable on any site.
S&P 500 Year-End Forecast
Crowd-sourced probability distribution of S&P 500 year-end levels from 27 Kalshi bracket markets. Mode, implied median, tail risk — where is the market pricing the index?
Inflation Tracker
Market-implied CPI probability distribution from Kalshi — where does the crowd think inflation lands? Headline and core CPI, derived marginal brackets, implied median.
2028 Election Tracker
Real-time candidate win probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election from Polymarket. Ranked by market-implied probability, updated every 5 minutes.
Government Shutdown Tracker
Live probability of a US government shutdown from Kalshi prediction markets. Active markets display when a budget deadline is approaching; clean empty state between deadlines.
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