Free Prediction Market Tools
Nineteen quant tools for Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings traders. Bread & butter to advanced — one page.
Each tool is named for the question it answers. The Bread & Butter section is what you'll come back to daily. Advanced is heavier math — read the methodology first. Utilities are quick-reference. Below the toolkit you'll find Live Data Widgets — auto-refreshing dashboards (Fed Rate Tracker, S&P 500 Forecast, etc.) that you can also embed on your own site. Free tools work without an account; Pro unlocks at $14.99.
New here? Read the Plain English guide → · Want to embed live data on your site? Browse embeddable widgets →
The Bread & Butter
The thirteen tools traders actually use. Named for the question they answer.
Thee Oracle dashboard: what are today's biggest prediction-market moves?
Thee Oracle
Historical cross-platform edge data + live market flow → Claude AI → a structured reading. Patterns, divergence signals, and the three markets you should be watching right now.
Weather Edge tool: how do I trade Kalshi temperature markets?
Weather Edge
Live NWS forecast vs. Kalshi daily-high threshold markets across 13 cities. Normal distribution model → edge signal, EV, and quarter Kelly sizing. Discord alerts twice daily after each NWS forecast update.
Silver Edge tool: where is silver headed this week?
Silver Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXSILVERW strike. XAG/USD silver spot, Brent-recovered IV, signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Gold Edge tool: where is gold headed this week?
Gold Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXGOLDW strike. XAU/USD gold spot, deepest commodity ETF options book ($65B AUM), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Oil Edge tool: which Kalshi KXWTI strikes are mispriced?
Oil Edge
Live snapshot of options-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXWTI WTI strike. Yahoo CL=F WTI spot, USO options chain (largest US oil ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours with an OPEC ±5-day haircut.
Bitcoin Edge tool: which Kalshi KXBTCD strikes are mispriced?
Bitcoin Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXBTCD strike. Pyth BTC/USD spot, IBIT options chain (deepest US spot-BTC ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. KXBTCD settles twice daily at 9am + 5pm ET on CF Benchmarks BRTI.
Oracle Gas Edge: how do I trade the Kalshi daily gas price market?
Oracle Gas Edge
Live AAA + GasBuddy + Kalshi cross-read for KXAAAGASD. Predicts tomorrow’s AAA print at 11:55 PM ET — 4½ hours before the rest of the market sees the data. Free dashboard during 40-day calibration; sized Pro plays go live June 17, 2026.
Kelly Criterion calculator: how much should I stake on a prediction market?
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Enter your probability estimate, market price, and bankroll — get the correct position size instantly. Full, half, quarter, and eighth Kelly with automatic EV check. Never overbet a good edge again.
Bayes updater: how do I update my probability when news breaks?
Bayes Updater
Start with a prior probability, add evidence items one at a time, and watch your belief update at each step using Bayes theorem. Chain up to 5 evidence items with real-time probability shifts.
Cross-platform arbitrage scanner: where do Kalshi and Polymarket prices diverge?
Cross-Platform Arb Scanner
Live scan for price divergences between Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings. Political scanner + Sports scanner in one tool. ARB FLAGGED when the gap is exploitable. Picks Pro.
EV calculator: what's my expected value on this trade?
EV Calculator
Enter the market price and your probability estimate — get edge %, BUY/SELL/SKIP signal, and interpretation instantly. Know whether a trade is worth making before you click.
Polymarket mispricing scanner: which markets is the crowd wrong about?
Polymarket Mispricing Scanner
Daily Bayesian swarm scan of Polymarket — two AI agents (Kalshi cross-reference + Claude NLP) flag mispricings ≥5pp with Kelly sizing. High-confidence alerts sent to Pro subscribers.
Base rate scanner: what's the historical probability of this outcome?
Base Rate Scanner
Compare current market prices against historical base rates across 12 event categories — Fed decisions, elections, GDP, Bitcoin, and more. Spot when markets diverge from history.
For Advanced Users
Heavier math. Read the methodology before you fire.
KL-divergence detector: how do I find statistical arbitrage between markets?
KL-Divergence Arb Detector
Paste YES prices from any two prediction market platforms on the same event. Get an instant ARB FLAGGED signal using KL divergence — the information-theoretic measure of how inconsistent two probability distributions are.
Theta edge calculator: how does time decay affect prediction-market prices?
Theta Edge
Binary options time-value calculator — paste a contract’s price, days to close, and IV; FV = Φ(logit(p) / (σ × √τ)) returns fair value with the BS-d2 model. BUY/SELL signal with decay curve.
Conflict hedge calculator: how do I hedge against a geopolitical shock?
Conflict Hedge Calculator
How much do you need in war prediction contracts to offset your portfolio getting obliterated? Enter your sector, portfolio size, and conflict scenario — get the exact hedge position with historical drawdown data.
Utilities
Quick reference. Open, use, close.
Probability converter: how do I convert Kalshi cents to probability?
Probability Converter
Convert Kalshi prices (in cents) to implied probability, decimal odds, and American odds. Understand fair value and estimate vig instantly.
State availability map: where can I legally trade prediction markets?
State Availability Map
Which states can you legally trade on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions, and FanDuel Predicts? Full state-by-state availability map.
Combo builder: how do I stack multiple prediction-market positions?
Combo Builder
Build multi-leg Kalshi combos and see combined probability, cost, payout multiplier, and break-even hit rate. Unlock EV rating with Picks Pro.
Live Data Widgets
Embed on your site →Fed Rate Tracker
Live Kalshi probabilities for all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print — quantifies the exact pp shift for each outcome. CME FedWatch built on real prediction market prices.
Recession Probability Gauge
Market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi. Live NBER-contract gauge with quarterly breakdown. Embeddable on any site.
Macro Pulse
Live FRED macro indicators (rates, growth, inflation, labor, housing, credit) compiled into a single 0–100 risk-on/risk-off readout. Daily refresh.
S&P 500 Year-End Forecast
Crowd-sourced probability distribution of S&P 500 year-end levels from 27 Kalshi bracket markets. Mode, implied median, tail risk — where is the market pricing the index?
Inflation Tracker
Market-implied CPI probability distribution from Kalshi — where does the crowd think inflation lands? Headline and core CPI, derived marginal brackets, implied median.
2028 Election Tracker
Real-time candidate win probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election from Polymarket. Ranked by market-implied probability, updated every 5 minutes.
Government Shutdown Tracker
Live odds for the 2026 US midterms — the closest Senate and House races plus balance-of-power chamber control, sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket. Updated every 15 minutes.
Government Shutdown Tracker
Live probability of a US government shutdown from Kalshi prediction markets. Active markets display when a budget deadline is approaching; clean empty state between deadlines.
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