Free Prediction Market Tools
27 quant tools for Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings traders. Bread & butter to advanced — one page.
Each tool is named for the question it answers. The Bread & Butter section is what you'll come back to daily. Advanced is heavier math — read the methodology first. Utilities are quick-reference. Below the toolkit you'll find Live Data Widgets — auto-refreshing dashboards (Fed Rate Tracker, S&P 500 Forecast, etc.) that you can also embed on your own site. Free tools work without an account; Pro unlocks at $14.99.
New here? Read the Plain English guide → · Want to embed live data on your site? Browse embeddable widgets →
The Bread & Butter
The 20 tools traders actually use. Named for the question they answer.
For AI agents: how do I call PredictionMarketsPicks tools from Claude, ChatGPT, or Cursor?
MCP Server
Call our quant tools from Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, or Copilot. Six free calculators — EV, Kelly, Bayesian, odds conversion, base-rate gaps, combo grading — plus Pro edge tools, on the official MCP registry. Remote (Streamable HTTP), no install.
Kalshi same game parlay: how do I price correlated same-game combos on Kalshi?
Combo Edge Builder
The free Kalshi same-game combo builder — NFL every week of the season, soccer when that board is live. Kalshi prices every leg standalone with zero correlation adjustment, so this computes the true joint probability off a scoreline model, turns it into a fair-value odds band, and grades the quote your platform gives you with a plain, color-coded verdict (SMASH → PLAY IT → LEAN → PASS → RUN AWAY) — correlation bonus, EV and quarter-Kelly sizing under the hood, all free, no leg cap.
Thee Oracle dashboard: what are today's biggest prediction-market moves?
Thee Oracle
Historical cross-platform edge data + live market flow → Claude AI → a structured reading. Patterns, divergence signals, and the three markets you should be watching right now.
Weather Edge tool: how do I trade Kalshi temperature markets?
Weather Edge
Live NWS forecast vs. Kalshi daily-high threshold markets across 13 cities. Normal distribution model → edge signal, EV, and quarter Kelly sizing. Discord alerts twice daily after each NWS forecast update.
Silver Edge tool: where is silver headed this week?
Silver Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXSILVERW strike. XAG/USD silver spot, Brent-recovered IV, signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Gold Edge tool: where is gold headed this week?
Gold Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXGOLDW strike. XAU/USD gold spot, deepest commodity ETF options book ($65B AUM), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours.
Oil Edge tool: which Kalshi KXWTI strikes are mispriced?
Oil Edge
Live snapshot of options-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXWTI WTI strike. Yahoo CL=F WTI spot, USO options chain (largest US oil ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. Updates in real time during market hours with an OPEC ±5-day haircut.
Bitcoin Edge tool: which Kalshi KXBTCD strikes are mispriced?
Bitcoin Edge
Live snapshot of model-implied probability vs Kalshi YES on every active KXBTCD strike. BRTI-constituent spot, IBIT options chain (deepest US spot-BTC ETF), signed edge in pp, HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW confidence. KXBTCD settles hourly on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average; picks published 10am–4pm ET while the IBIT options chain is live.
Kalshi bitcoin 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Bitcoin Edge 15-Min
Kalshi lists a new KXBTC15M bitcoin contract every 15 minutes, 24/7, settling on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average at the close. Live fair value from the locked strike, time left and realized volatility, the countdown with the settlement-averaging band, the fee-adjusted breakeven and a quarter-Kelly sizer — and the graded record filling up in public. No picks: the model has not beaten the market's own Brier in any bucket yet, and the page says so.
Kalshi gold 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Gold Edge 15-Min
Kalshi lists a new KXGOLD15M gold contract every 15 minutes, settling on Pyth 1-minute candle closes. Once a window opens its reference price is locked, so fair value becomes arithmetic — computed live from distance to strike, time left and realized volatility, with no directional call. Draws the round-trip fee band most windows never clear.
Kalshi silver 15-minute markets: what is the current window actually worth?
Silver Edge 15-Min
The KXSILVER15M sibling — one up-or-down silver contract per 15-minute window, settling on Pyth 1-minute candle closes. Live fair value from the locked reference price, plus the quadratic fee band that decides whether any gap is worth acting on. Thinner book than gold; sized accordingly.
Gas price forecast: will gas prices go up or down next week?
Gas Price Forecast (The Pump Line)
Where the national average gas price lands in 1, 7 and 14 days — published free every day with a permanent public accuracy record. 3,200+ graded forecasts, misses included. Beats a no-change assumption by 38% at one week.
Kelly Criterion calculator: how much should I stake on a prediction market?
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Enter your probability estimate, market price, and bankroll — get the correct position size instantly. Full, half, quarter, and eighth Kelly with automatic EV check. Never overbet a good edge again.
Bayes updater: how do I update my probability when news breaks?
Bayes Updater
Start with a prior probability, add evidence items one at a time, and watch your belief update at each step using Bayes theorem. Chain up to 5 evidence items with real-time probability shifts.
Cross-platform arbitrage scanner: where do Kalshi and Polymarket prices diverge?
Cross-Platform Arb Scanner
Live scan for price divergences between Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings. Political scanner + Sports scanner in one tool. ARB FLAGGED when the gap is exploitable. Picks Pro.
Kalshi ladder arbitrage: which college football and NFL spread ladders are priced out of order?
Ladder Arb Scanner
Every Kalshi CFB and NFL spread and total ladder checked for strikes priced out of order — a higher strike quoted above a lower one is impossible by arithmetic, no model needed. Locked arbitrage, crossed mids with the resting orders that capture them, and wide books worth making a market in. Full board free; Pro adds the orders, net-of-fee edge and ¼-Kelly.
EV calculator: what's my expected value on this trade?
EV Calculator
Enter the market price and your probability estimate — get edge %, BUY/SELL/SKIP signal, and interpretation instantly. Know whether a trade is worth making before you click.
Kalshi fees calculator: how much are Kalshi trading fees?
Kalshi Fee Calculator
Enter a contract price and size — get the exact Kalshi trading fee, break-even price, and round-trip cost. Fees follow 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), so they peak at the 50¢ coin flip and vanish at the extremes. Full maker/taker fee curve included.
Polymarket mispricing scanner: which markets is the crowd wrong about?
Polymarket Mispricing Scanner
Daily Bayesian swarm scan of Polymarket — two AI agents (Kalshi cross-reference + Claude NLP) flag mispricings ≥5pp with Kelly sizing. High-confidence alerts sent to Pro subscribers.
Base rate scanner: what's the historical probability of this outcome?
Base Rate Scanner
Compare current market prices against historical base rates across 12 event categories — Fed decisions, elections, GDP, Bitcoin, and more. Spot when markets diverge from history.
For Advanced Users
Heavier math. Read the methodology before you fire.
KL-divergence detector: how do I find statistical arbitrage between markets?
KL-Divergence Arb Detector
Paste YES prices from any two prediction market platforms on the same event. Get an instant ARB FLAGGED signal using KL divergence — the information-theoretic measure of how inconsistent two probability distributions are.
Theta edge calculator: how does time decay affect prediction-market prices?
Theta Edge
Binary options time-value calculator — paste a contract’s price, days to close, and IV; FV = Φ(logit(p) / (σ × √τ)) returns fair value with the BS-d2 model. BUY/SELL signal with decay curve.
Conflict hedge calculator: how do I hedge against a geopolitical shock?
Conflict Hedge Calculator
How much do you need in war prediction contracts to offset your portfolio getting obliterated? Enter your sector, portfolio size, and conflict scenario — get the exact hedge position with historical drawdown data.
Utilities
Quick reference. Open, use, close.
NFL power ratings 2026: PWR for all 32 teams, agent-callable
NFL Power Ratings
PWR for all 32 NFL teams — a defense-adjusted power number in points per game above an average team on a neutral field, with rank and tier.
NFL win probability calculator: what does a -7 spread mean
NFL Win Probability
Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, and over/cover probability — using the Gridiron Edge scoring-margin model.
Probability converter: how do I convert Kalshi cents to probability?
Probability Converter
Convert Kalshi prices (in cents) to implied probability, decimal odds, and American odds. Understand fair value and estimate vig instantly.
State availability map: where can I legally trade prediction markets?
State Availability Map
Which states can you legally trade on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings Predictions, and FanDuel Predicts? Full state-by-state availability map.
Combo builder: how do I stack multiple prediction-market positions?
Kalshi Parlay Calculator
Build multi-leg Kalshi combos and see combined probability, cost, payout multiplier, and break-even hit rate. Unlock EV rating with Picks Pro.
Live Data Widgets
Embed on your site →Fed Rate Tracker
Live Kalshi probabilities for all 8 FOMC meetings in 2026. Bayesian model updates after every CPI, NFP, and PCE print — quantifies the exact pp shift for each outcome. CME FedWatch built on real prediction market prices.
Recession Probability Gauge
Market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi. Live NBER-contract gauge with quarterly breakdown. Embeddable on any site.
Macro Pulse
Live FRED macro indicators (rates, growth, inflation, labor, housing, credit) compiled into a single 0–100 risk-on/risk-off readout. Daily refresh.
S&P 500 Year-End Forecast
Crowd-sourced probability distribution of S&P 500 year-end levels from 27 Kalshi bracket markets. Mode, implied median, tail risk — where is the market pricing the index?
Inflation Tracker
Market-implied CPI probability distribution from Kalshi — where does the crowd think inflation lands? Headline and core CPI, derived marginal brackets, implied median.
2028 Election Tracker
Real-time candidate win probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election from Polymarket. Ranked by market-implied probability, updated every 5 minutes.
2026 Midterms Tracker
Live odds for the 2026 US midterms — the closest Senate and House races plus balance-of-power chamber control, sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket. Updated every 15 minutes.
Government Shutdown Tracker
Live probability of a US government shutdown from Kalshi prediction markets. Active markets display when a budget deadline is approaching; clean empty state between deadlines.
Join The 7 Oracles Discord
Daily picks, live alerts, and direct access to the Oracles. Link your PMP account to unlock subscriber channels.
Join the Discord →