First-Quarter Edition · Weeks 1–4 · Data through October 8, 2026
NFL 2026: The Quarter-Season Report
64 games. 32 teams. The Kalshi price of every one of them on September 8 and again on October 8, and what the standings are hiding.
Every game, team and division in the book links to a live page on this site, and the last chapter looks ahead to the next fourteen weeks.
64
Games
32
Team cards
8
Division chapters
4
Weeks covered
Get the report
Buy it on Kindle, or download the Living Edition free with a Pro membership.
Coming to Kindle shortly
What's inside — 7 parts
- I
The Quarter in Numbers
Ten numbers, the Kalshi price moves Sept 8 vs Oct 8, and standings vs point differential
- II
The Lines Report
Did the market get it right? Opening vs closing lines, biggest moves, upsets and misses
- III
Our Scorecard
How our published leans graded, including the parts we would rather not print
- IV
The Quarter, Game by Game
All 64 games, four weeks, each linked to its full recap
- V
Divisions, Conferences and the Super Bowl
Eight division chapters, both conference pictures and the title market vs our simulation
- VI
All 32 Teams
One card per team: record, market view then and now, simulation, next three games
- VII
Looking Ahead
Season projections for every team and the Week 5 slate
Two ways to get the report
There is no email wall on any of them. The Kindle book is the story of the quarter. The Living Edition is the data, rebuilt every week.
Kindle edition
The whole quarter, written up — $9.99
All 64 games in a paragraph each, eight division chapters, both conference pictures, the Super Bowl market and a card for every team. One payment, readable on any Kindle app.
Coming to Kindle shortly
Included with Pro
Living Edition PDF — $14.99 a month, the PDF is free
The data version: standings, every scoreboard, line moves and the Kalshi board, rebuilt every week through the season. A Pro membership also includes every Pro tool on the site. Cancel any time.
Go Pro and download it →New here? Code NFL26 takes 26% off the first payment of the annual plan through December 31. Apply it at checkout.
Free sample · Part I
The quarter in ten numbers
Sixty-four games is not a sample you can build a season on. It is a sample you can describe, and these are the ten numbers that describe this one.
46.2
points per game
That is the average for all 64 games. Week 1 ran at 49.4, Week 2 dropped to 40.4, and Weeks 3 and 4 came back to 47.2 and 47.8. The average closing total across the 62 games with lines was 45.0; the average game scored 46.8.
14
games decided by a field goal or less
37 of 64 were decided by eight points or fewer. Only 12 were decided by twenty or more. Three went to overtime (NO at DET, GB at NYJ, IND at KC), and the margins were 1, 3, 3.
36-28
home teams against road teams
Hosts won 56% of the time. Against the closing spread, home teams were 31-28-3, which is a coin flip.
26-33
favorites against the closing spread
Underdogs covered 33 times and favorites 26, with 3 pushes. In Weeks 3 and 4 combined, favorites covered 9 times and failed to cover 20.
23
outright upsets
Out of 62 games with a clear closing favorite, the underdog won 23 outright. The biggest was Arizona over Los Angeles in Week 1: an 8.5-point underdog at +370 on the moneyline.
+1.8
points against the closing total
The average game scored 1.8 points above its posted total. Overs went 33-29.
28.5
points: the biggest miss by a closing line
CAR 34, ATL 3 in Week 2. Carolina closed as a 2.5-point road favorite and won by 31. The average closing line missed the final margin by 9.5 points; the opening line missed it by 9.7.
3
games landed exactly on the number
All three finished on the two most important numbers in the sport: New York at Detroit and Los Angeles at Seattle both closed at 7, and Baltimore at Dallas closed at 3.
-50¢
the Chargers' fall on the playoff board
On September 8 a Kalshi contract on the Chargers making the playoffs cost 60.5¢. On October 8 it cost 10.5¢. It is the largest one-month drop on the board, and the Chargers are 0-4.
+33¢
the Jaguars' rise on the playoff board
From 50.5¢ to 83.5¢: the largest rise, on a 3-1 start with wins by 24, 29 and 5 points.
Free sample · Part I
What the market learned: the top of the Super Bowl board
A Kalshi contract on a team winning the Super Bowl pays $1 if it happens. At 11.5¢ the market is saying about 11.5%. These are the mid-point prices on September 8, before a snap, and on October 8, after four weeks. The book has all 32 teams, plus the conference and playoff boards.
| Team | Record | Sept 8 | Oct 8 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 2-2 | 16.5¢ | 11.5¢ | -5¢ |
| Bills | 3-1 | 7.5¢ | 10.5¢ | +3¢ |
| Chiefs | 4-0 | 5.5¢ | 9.5¢ | +4¢ |
| 49ers | 4-0 | 4.5¢ | 9.5¢ | +5¢ |
| Seahawks | 3-1 | 7.5¢ | 8.5¢ | +1¢ |
| Ravens | 3-1 | 6.5¢ | 7.5¢ | +1¢ |
| Jaguars | 3-1 | 2.5¢ | 6.5¢ | +4¢ |
| Bears | 3-1 | 3.5¢ | 4.5¢ | +1¢ |
| Bengals | 2-2 | 4.5¢ | 3.5¢ | -1¢ |
| Cowboys | 2-2 | 4.5¢ | 3.5¢ | -1¢ |
Kalshi contract mid-points. Prices on different contracts need not sum to 100%; read each as a relative signal. The live board is at /nfl/championship.
Jump to a division or a team
Every division and team in the book has a live page here. Start with yours.
Everything in the report, live and free
A report is a snapshot. These are the boards it was written from, and they keep moving after it stops. Week 5 is where to look next.
Live standings
All 8 divisions, projected record and playoff odds
Super Bowl & playoff odds
The live version of the title board in the book
Week 5 and beyond
Model win probability on every game still to play
Weekly game edges
Where our line and the market disagree this week
Win totals board
Projected wins against the live ladder
All 8 divisions
Division races, teams and tiebreak paths
All 32 team hubs
The live version of every team card in the book
Full schedule
All 18 weeks with our line on every game
The graded record
How the model has actually scored, published in full
The preseason Market Guide
The 61-page book this report picks up from
Player props
Our projection beside the live prop line
How the model works
The methodology behind every projection
NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — frequently asked
What is the NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report?
It is a book about the first four weeks of the 2026 NFL season: all 64 games, every one linked to its full recap, plus the opening and closing line on 62 of them. Seven parts: the quarter in ten numbers, the lines report, our scorecard, the games week by week, the eight divisions and the Super Bowl market, a card for each of the 32 teams, and what the next fourteen weeks look like.
How do I get the report?
Two ways. Buy the Kindle edition on Amazon, or get the Living Edition PDF free with a PredictionMarketsPicks Pro membership. The Living Edition is the data version: the same standings, scoreboards, line moves and market boards, rebuilt every week.
What is the difference between the Kindle book and the Living Edition?
The Kindle book is the story of the first quarter: the game-by-game capsules, the division chapters and the analysis, frozen as of the date on the cover. The Living Edition is a different product: tables and boards only, no narrative, rebuilt every week so the numbers stay current. Both link back to the live pages on this site.
Is the Living Edition free?
It is included with a Pro membership. It is not given away to everyone, and there is no email wall: either you are a Pro member and the button downloads it, or you pick one of the two ways in on this page. The ten numbers and the Super Bowl board on this page are free to read.
Does the report tell me what to buy?
No. It is not a list of picks and it is not financial advice. Prediction markets are exchanges: you buy and sell contracts that pay one dollar if something happens, prices move, and positions can lose. The report shows what the market priced, what happened, and where our simulation disagrees, so you can decide for yourself.
Where do the lines and prices come from?
Opening and closing lines are DraftKings lines as reported by ESPN. Market prices are Kalshi contract mid-points (halfway between the bid and the ask), recorded on September 8 before any game was played and again on October 8 after Week 4. Projections are from our season simulation.
Do the numbers go stale?
Yes. The Kindle book is frozen as of October 8, 2026, and it says so on the first page. Every game, team and division in it links to a live page on this site that keeps updating, and the Living Edition PDF is rebuilt every week through the season.
Will there be a second-quarter report?
That is the plan. The same build runs again after Week 8, with the same structure, so the two reports can be read side by side. The Living Edition updates every week in between.
64 games, 32 teams, one quarter
Read the story on Kindle, or get the Living Edition free with a Pro membership at $14.99 a month, alongside every Pro tool on the site.
Not financial advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss and availability depends on where you live. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any team.