Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 2 in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 7 2026 — 56% to win, and a NFC North game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 51c or below (or Packers at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+3.0
DET
+2.5
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Packers
44%
model win prob
Lions
56%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
34%
Madden 27
66%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 51c or below, or the Packers at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Packers at Lions
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Lions −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsLions −10.5 → Lions −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
NFC North math: Packers at Lions
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Lions by 2 (56%) off a +2.5 to +3.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +3.3 (5th of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.7 (6th) — 2.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Packers defense (-0.5, 14th), a 1.8-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.8 projected wins for the Lions against 9.7 for the Packers, favored in 13 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 7th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Packers'.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Packers won 31-24 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Lions at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Lions at 51c or below, Packers at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Lions)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 51c or below, or the Packers at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Packers vs Lions trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Packers vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Lions in Week 7?
Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Packers, for a projected score of Lions 25, Packers 23 on a ratings-implied 48.4-point total. The Lions rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Packers 5th (+3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 2 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 51c or below, or the Packers at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 51c or below or the Packers at 39c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Packers vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Lions?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Lions at 56% over the Packers sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Packers–Lions, Week 18 →
More Week 7 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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