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Home/NFL/Week 7/Packers vs Lions
Gridiron EdgeWeek 7 · 2026NFC North rivalry

Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20

Final. The rematch: Lions vs Packers, Week 18 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win); the Lions won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Lions at 66c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win). The Lions won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Lions: +5c — we archived the Lions at 61c on Oct 18; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 66c on Oct 25. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 7 · 2026-10-26

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Packers moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 34% on GB — kept as the pre-game record.34c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Lions 20, Packers 17: Jake Bates’s 22-yard field goal on the final snap, after DJ Wonnum blocked Trey Smack’s go-ahead try with 3:25 left

Detroit lost two fumbles and was stopped on fourth down twice, and still won on the last play. Green Bay’s rookie kicker Trey Smack missed a 26-yarder on the opening drive and had a 35-yarder blocked with the score tied at 17; Jared Goff then drove the Lions 71 yards in 10 plays and Bates kicked the 22-yarder as time expired. Goff threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns to Jameson Williams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught nine passes for 153. DraftKings opened Detroit a 1.5-point favorite and closed it at 3.5; the Lions won by three, and 37 points finished under both the opening 50.5 and the closing 55.5.

Packers 17—Lions 20

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Detroit at 62.2% (Green Bay 37.8%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3.5-point line. Detroit won. The quarterback gate read PASS. The model’s own read was Detroit by 1.5, a 2.0-point lean toward the Packers, tier NONE, and the Lions won by three, inside the 3.5: the lean was right, by half a point. The ledger holds no live position; its two rows, a MODERATE Packers moneyline at 34.5¢ and then a MODERATE Lions moneyline at 57.5¢, were voided on 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-18 (no_longer_edge) and count in neither direction. The preview on this page led with the league’s sack leaders against the league’s last-ranked offensive line; Jordan Love was sacked once, though Aidan Hutchinson hit him five times. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Thirteen graded visible WATCH rows went 13-0 and are graded apart, never folded into the record: all six Sam LaPorta unders (39.5 through 69.5 receiving yards, 4.5 and 5.5 catches) on one catch for 18, Love under 2.5 touchdown passes (two) and both of his rushing unders (no carries), both Josh Jacobs receiving overs (five catches for 55 against 2.5 catches and 9.5 yards) and both MarShawn Lloyd rushing overs (9.5, 14.5) on 20. A 14th, Pierre Strong over 9.5 rushing yards, is ungraded: he does not appear in the box score. Six rows on suppressed stats (four Love passing-yards rows, two anytime-touchdown rows) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Lions −1.5 → Lions −3.5
Total
50.5 → 55.5
Moneyline
GB +105 / DET −125 → GB +160 / DET −192

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 5 to 55.5; the game landed on 37.

How it happened

Q1

A delay of game at the 3, a 26-yard miss, and Williams from 16

Green Bay drove to the Detroit 3 on the opening possession, took a delay-of-game penalty on fourth-and-goal and watched Smack push a 26-yarder wide right. Goff hit St. Brown for 28 and Williams for 24 and then 16, the last for a touchdown, and Love answered with a 14-yard touchdown to Tucker Kraft on third-and-9.

Packers opening drive
10 plays · 57 yds · missed FG
Lions TD drive
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:23
After one
Packers 7, Lions 7

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

A stop at the 7, then two Detroit fumbles

Green Bay was stopped on fourth-and-4 at the Detroit 7 when Love’s throw to Matthew Golden went for no gain. Detroit drove to the Green Bay 6 in the final minute of the half, and Isaiah McDuffie forced a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble that Brenton Cox Jr. recovered. On the second play of the third quarter Goff lost an aborted snap, McDuffie recovered at the Detroit 42, and Love hit Jacobs for a 25-yard touchdown on third-and-6 for a 14-10 lead.

Halftime
Lions 10, Packers 7
Detroit drive that ended in the fumble
12 plays · 85 yds
Jacobs TD drive
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:58

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Williams again, a fourth-down stop at the 6, Branch’s interception and a tie

Goff’s second touchdown to Williams, from 10 yards, made it 17-14, and Detroit was stopped again on fourth-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the quarter. Brian Branch intercepted Love on third-and-21 at the start of the fourth, and Smack tied it at 17 with a 43-yarder with 7:10 left.

Williams TD drive
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:41
Williams
5 catches · 91 yds · 2 TD
Smack
1 of 3 on field goals

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

A fourth-and-1 stop, a blocked kick and Bates on the final snap

Detroit went for it on fourth-and-1 at its own 24 with 4:53 left, and Keisean Nixon stopped Gibbs short. Green Bay reached the Detroit 17, Love’s third-down throw went off Jacobs’s hands in the end zone, and Wonnum blocked Smack’s 35-yard try. On the winning drive Goff hit LaPorta for 18, Karl Brooks was flagged for a late hit and then for a neutral-zone infraction on third-and-5, and Gibbs went down short of the goal line so Bates could kick the 22-yarder on the final play.

Final drive
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:21
Final
Lions 20, Packers 17
Goff
22 of 32 · 303 yds · 2 TD
Love
27 of 45 · 274 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
St. Brown
9 catches · 153 yds
Penalties
GB 8 for 81 · DET 5 for 50

AP via ESPN — Jake Bates kicks 22-yard FG as time expires to give Lions 20-17 win over Packers

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (both moneyline rows were voided before kickoff). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W7_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-25/prop-reconciliation-w07.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The AP has Gibbs stopped for no gain on the fourth-and-1; ESPN’s play-by-play logs a 2-yard loss. The AP says Wonnum got a finger on Smack’s 35-yard try; the play-by-play logs it as blocked. This recap gives no yardage for the stop.
  • Pierre Strong does not appear in the box score, so his WATCH row is ungraded (NOT_IN_BOX). This recap does not know whether he was inactive or played without recording a statistic.
  • Green Bay centers Sean Rhyan (ankle) and Jacob Monk (quadriceps) and Detroit cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (ankle) were hurt during the game, per the AP; severity was not known when this was published.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings total moved five points, 50.5 to 55.5, and the game finished at 37. The core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim what moved it.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-25. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jake Bates kicks 22-yard FG as time expires to give Lions 20-17 win over Packers

The league’s sack leaders against the league’s last-ranked offensive line, and Love’s back

Detroit leads the NFL in sacks and has just been rated the best offensive line in football by one grading service. Green Bay’s line is thirty-second by the same service, thirty-second in time to pressure, and thirty-second in rushing. That is the clearest unit mismatch on the Week 7 board, and it arrives in the week Jordan Love is carrying a sore back and his own club says it wants to limit the hits he takes. He expects to play.

Lions pass rush · Packers pass protection

Twenty sacks against the thirty-second offensive line

Edge: Lions

Detroit leads the league with twenty sacks and sixty pressures at a top-ten pressure rate, and has moved to first in one service’s offensive-line rankings — so it wins both lines of scrimmage on paper. Green Bay is thirty-second in that service’s blocking grade at 47.3, thirty-second in offensive-line efficiency by a second model, twenty-ninth in pressures allowed at ninety-seven, and thirty-second in time to pressure at 2.36 seconds. There is no version of this game in which Green Bay protects comfortably. It compounds the quarterback story: with Love carrying a back injury, the club has said it wants to limit the hits he takes in the pocket, and this is the worst possible week to want that. Green Bay’s escape hatch — run it — is shut: it is thirty-second in rushing yards a game, thirty-second in yards a carry and thirty-second in rushing expected points.

Detroit’s rush
Leads the league with 20.0 sacks · 60 pressures at a 24.6 pressure rate (top ten) · now 1st in PFF’s offensive-line rankings — detroitlions.com, 2026-10-21
Green Bay’s line
PFF blocking grade 47.3 (32nd) · offensive-line DVOA 32nd · 97 pressures allowed (29th) · time to pressure 2.36 sec (32nd) — Yahoo/SB Nation, 2026-10-22
No escape on the ground
59.8 rush yards a game (32nd) · 2.9 a carry (32nd) · rushing expected points −0.29 (32nd)

Source: Yahoo / SB Nation — Lions Week 7 preview, breaking down the matchup (2026-10-22)

Lions offense · Packers defense

Green Bay allows almost nothing deep and almost everything close

Edge: Lions

Green Bay’s defense has the most specific shape of any unit on the slate: it allows explosive passes on 1.8 percent of attempts, the best figure in the league, and then concedes red-zone touchdowns on three-quarters of trips, twenty-seventh, and third downs at forty-four percent, twenty-fifth. A defense that will not let you throw over it but will let you finish is the exact wrong defense to face the league’s second-highest-scoring offense, because Detroit does not need explosives — Jahmyr Gibbs has nine touchdowns in four games, the most in the league. Detroit’s own defense is thirtieth in points allowed, which is why the Green Bay side of this is not hopeless: the Packers are fifth in passing yards and third in passing explosives, and they will get chunks. They have just been poor at cashing them, at a fifty percent red-zone touchdown rate, twenty-second, with Love himself last in the league in red-zone expected points.

Detroit offense
32.8 points a game (2nd) — Yahoo, 2026-10-21 · Gibbs with 9 touchdowns in 4 games, the league lead
Green Bay defense, both ends
Explosive passes allowed on 1.8 (best in the league) · red-zone touchdowns allowed 75 (27th) · third down 44 (25th) · run-defense DVOA 26th
Green Bay’s finishing
269.3 pass yards a game (5th), 3rd-most passing explosives · but red-zone touchdowns 50 (22nd) and Love 32nd in red-zone expected points

Source: detroitlions.com — NFC North: where all four teams stand heading into Week 7 (2026-10-21, 7:00 a.m.)

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

Love’s back: limited on a walk-through, no designation, and he says he is playing

Close to even

The club report of Wednesday 2026-10-21 lists Love limited with a back — and carries its own footnote that Green Bay held a walk-through and that the participation report is an estimate. The game-status column is blank; designations come Friday. Love, the same day: "It’s just dealing with a sore back from the game… Just some lingering effects from that", and asked whether he was concerned he would not be in the lineup against Detroit, he said no. On Thursday morning he said he is not at risk of missing it, that it will be handled day by day, and that a jog-through day helped; the club wants to limit hits in the pocket. He did not miss a snap in the Week 6 win over Dallas. Behind him is Tyrod Taylor, a sixteen-year veteran with roughly a hundred games and sixty-two starts, including three seasons as Buffalo’s starter. The reason this section matters to the board rather than only to the reader: a limited designation estimated off a walk-through is the softest signal in the week, and it is what raised a fork on this game in our own data. This desk does not publish two lines off that.

The club report
Love LIMITED (back), game status blank · club footnote: "The Packers held a walk-thru on Wednesday; participation reports are an estimation" — packers.com, 2026-10-21, 3:13 p.m.
Love, Thursday
Says he is not at risk of missing the game; day by day; club wants to limit hits in the pocket — Pro Football Talk, 2026-10-22, 9:47 a.m.
Green Bay’s receivers
Three of the top four carrying injuries: Golden (shoulder), Watson (ankle), Savion Williams (ankle), all limited · Bo Melton (back) DNP

Source: packers.com — Packers–Lions injury report (2026-10-21, 3:13 p.m.)

What this read does not know

  • Love’s "limited" is an estimate, not an observation. Green Bay held a walk-through and says so itself. It does not tell you how his back responded to real work, and no Thursday club report existed when this was written. The Friday designation is the first hard evidence, and nothing on this game should ship before it.
  • Detroit did not practice on Wednesday either — its practice report is estimates too. Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring) is listed limited and Brian Branch (Achilles) and Cade Mays (wrist) full, and Detroit came out of its bye notably healthy, but those statuses carry the same caveat as Green Bay’s.
  • Tyrod Taylor’s career win-loss record is not stated by the source that establishes his experience, and we did not verify it elsewhere, so it does not appear above.
  • Green Bay is the most-penalized team in the league at fifty-seven penalties for 465 yards, which matters on the road — but we found no league-rank context for Detroit’s penalty rate, so we cannot say whether this is a differential or just a Green Bay fact.
  • We could not verify 2026 team sack totals for any team from the league’s own table — it returned passing-offense columns. Detroit’s twenty is the club’s own published figure.

Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: packers.com — Packers–Lions injury report (2026-10-21) · Pro Football Talk — Jordan Love dealing with sore back, but expects to play vs Lions (2026-10-22) · Pro Football Talk — Jordan Love listed as limited with back injury on Wednesday (2026-10-21) · detroitlions.com — NFC North standings heading into Week 7 (2026-10-21) · detroitlions.com — Lions vs Packers practice report (2026-10-21, 3:47 p.m.) · Yahoo / SB Nation — Lions Week 7 preview (2026-10-22) · Yahoo — Packers vs Lions, five things (2026-10-21) · packers.com — Countdown to camp: Jordan Love has a new QB2 (2026-07-20)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 7 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 25
AWAY GB +1.4
vs DET -3.5
HOME DET +0.6
Fair (books) · DET 62% home win prob
Kalshi · DET — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Detroit, MI PASS — no position

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Packers

38%

fair value (books)

Lions

62%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

34%

Madden 27

66%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Packers at Lions How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Packers at LionsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Packers at Lions Kalshi spread ladder for Week 7: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Packers–Lions spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Packers vs Lions power ratings (Week 7) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Green Bay Packers+1.410thPlayoff
    Detroit Lions+0.613thAverage

    Packers and Lions season outlook

    GBDET
    Average wins9.79.6
    Make playoffs57%55%
    Win division11%17%
    Win Super Bowl3.5%2.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Packers vs Lions — player pages

    All players →

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB

    Tucker Kraft

    TE

    Jordan Love

    QB

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR

    Josh Jacobs

    RB

    Jameson Williams

    WR

    Christian Watson

    WR

    Sam LaPorta

    TE

    Jared Goff

    QB

    Matthew Golden

    WR

    Isaac TeSlaa

    WR

    Sione Vaki

    Brock Wright

    Jacob Saylors

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: NFC North math: Packers at Lions

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 — the graded call is above.

    Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions is a NFC North game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Lions by 1.5 (54%) off a +0.6 to +1.4 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC North, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Packers offense grades +1.6 (11th of 32) against a Lions defense at -2.0 (24th) — 3.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+2.1, 9th) meets the Packers defense (-0.2, 10th), a 2.3-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.5 (9th of 32) to +0.0 (28th).

    On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC North race.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.6 projected wins for the Lions against 9.7 for the Packers, favored in 9 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Packers'.

    One team has owned this series: the Packers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 2 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Packers won 31-24 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Lions at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the NFC North hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Packers vs Lions on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET
    Market-implied (Lions)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Lions)
    62%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 62% for the Lions. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueLionsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
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    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Packers vs Lions

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    Packers vs Lions — frequently asked

    Who won Packers vs Lions in Week 7?

    Green Bay Packers 17, Detroit Lions 20 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Lions won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Packers vs Lions before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Lions by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Packers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    How much does a NFC North result matter here?

    Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Lions by 1.5 on ratings and home field alone.

    How do you take a position on Packers vs Lions?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 60c or below, or the Packers at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Lions host the Packers?

    Green Bay Packers visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

    What does the model project for the Lions and Packers this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Packers', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Lions?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Packers vs Lions on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25GBDET has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Lions?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Lions at 54% over the Packers sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Packers moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 34%, an edge of +3.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 34% on GB — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Packers–Lions, Week 18 →

    Next up for each team

    Packers: Week 8 vs PanthersModel line →Lions: Week 8 vs VikingsModel line →

    More Week 7 matchups

    Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.549ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1

    Full Week 7 board →Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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