Updated · market price
Monday, October 5, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
Final (Monday, October 5, 2026): Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 1.5 (55% to win); the Falcons won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Saints at 52c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 1.5 (55% to win). The Falcons won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Saints: -6c — we archived the Saints at 57c on Sep 29; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 52c on Oct 5. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
On the 20th anniversary of the Superdome’s reopening, Robinson scored on Atlanta’s third snap and added a second touchdown before the first quarter ended. Brian Robinson Jr. ran for three more. Michael Penix Jr., in his second game back from his 2025 knee injury, went 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown. Atlanta never trailed, led 24-7 at the half and scored on seven of its nine full possessions, punting twice. The market had New Orleans as a 1.5-point favorite at the close, and the 69 points went 20.5 past the closing total.
Falcons 45—Saints 24
Final✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. Our stored probability had New Orleans at 55.3%, the market’s number anchored at weight zero to Saints −1.5, and Atlanta won by 21. The model’s own read was the Saints by 2.1, about half a point from the market, tier NONE. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED. The model and the market had the same team by about the same margin, and both were wrong by more than three touchdowns. No game-line position exists for this game in the ledger, because there was no gap to take. The player board carried no PLAY row. Six WATCH rows that count went 4-2, graded apart from the record. Penix under 1.5 touchdown passes and under 9.5 rushing yards won, as did Jahan Dotson over 1.5 catches and Alvin Kamara over 14.5 receiving yards. Austin Hooper and Olamide Zaccheaus over 1.5 catches lost. Four suppressed rows on Penix’s and Tyler Shough’s passing yards went 3-1 and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 3 to 48.5; the game landed on 69.
Q1
Atlanta took the opening kickoff and Robinson ran 59 yards for a touchdown on the third play. New Orleans went three-and-out, then missed a field goal at the end of a ten-play drive. The Saints lost a fumble on the first snap of their next possession at their own 20, and Robinson scored from four with 48 seconds left in the quarter.
Q2
Kamara scored his first touchdown of the season from three yards to make it 14-7. Atlanta answered with a ten-play, 65-yard drive that Brian Robinson Jr. finished from four, and a ten-play, 75-yard drive for Nick Folk’s 29-yard field goal.
Q4
New Orleans spent 7:22 on its first drive of the second half and got a 27-yard field goal. Robinson Jr. scored from eight. Kamara scored again from five early in the fourth, and Atlanta went 72 yards in five plays, Penix hitting Dotson from 31. The Saints turned it over on downs, Robinson Jr. scored his third touchdown from 11, and Shough’s three-yarder to Devaughn Vele with 1:13 left set the final.
Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Bijan Robinson powers Falcons past Saints 45-24 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
It is official: New Orleans plays Monday night without linebacker Kaden Elliss, its leading tackler, and without both starting edge rushers, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings. Pete Werner, the other linebacker who makes most of their tackles, missed every practice and is questionable. That is the front Bijan Robinson, the NFL’s scrimmage-yards leader, runs at behind the league’s most run-heavy offense, with Michael Penix Jr. confirmed under centre. New Orleans answers with volume: Tyler Shough throws more than anyone, Chris Olave averages 125 yards a game, and Juwan Johnson already has three touchdowns — but Travis Etienne is on injured reserve, and Atlanta brings the league’s best pressure rate. Atlanta lists three questionable defenders and has ruled nobody out.
Final game-status designations — inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff
New Orleans ruled out linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) and edge rushers Carl Granderson (ankle) and Anfernee Jennings (knee), none of whom practised all week. Linebacker Pete Werner (shoulder) also missed every practice and is questionable; tight end Noah Fant (abdomen) was limited and is questionable. Travis Etienne is on injured reserve. The secondary is whole again: safety Julian Blackmon and cornerbacks Martin Emerson Jr. and Jayden Price are cleared, and defensive tackle Christen Miller returns. Atlanta listed linebackers Divine Deablo (hamstring) and Yasir Abdullah (illness) and edge rusher Samson Ebukam (hamstring) as questionable and ruled nobody out. Michael Penix Jr. starts for Atlanta; Tyler Shough for New Orleans.
Source: Yahoo Sports — Breaking down the final Saints injury report for Week 4 vs. Falcons (2026-10-04)
Falcons run game · Saints front
Robinson leads the NFL with 467 scrimmage yards — 349 rushing at 5.3 a carry and 118 receiving — and ran 29 times for 194 yards at Green Bay. Atlanta runs on 54.7 percent of its plays, the highest rate in football, and almost six of every ten Robinson carries are outside zone; New Orleans allows 5.0 yards a carry on outside zone, 25th, and a league-worst 45.5 percent success rate against it. The Saints give up 128.7 rushing yards a game at 4.7 a carry, and the edge defenders who set the outside and the linebacker who makes the most tackles are all ruled out. Atlanta also had eleven days to prepare for it.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Falcons–Saints Week 4 worksheet (Rich Hribar) (2026-10-01)
Saints pass offense · Falcons pressure
Shough has 917 yards and eight touchdowns on an NFL-high 48.7 dropbacks a game, and Olave leads the league with 27 catches for 375 yards — 125 a game. Juwan Johnson has three of those eight touchdown passes. Shough also has five fumbles and is sacked on nearly 22 percent of his pressures, 26th, which matters against a Falcons defense that pressures at 44.2 percent, the highest rate in football. Atlanta allows 263 passing yards a game, 31st — partly because it allows 48 rushing yards a game, first, and opponents throw on 72 percent of their snaps against it. With Etienne gone, New Orleans will throw into that rush all night; Atlanta’s questionable list is all front-seven — Ebukam, Deablo and Abdullah — so how many of them play decides how much of the rush shows up.
Source: Yahoo Sports — Where the Saints’ defense ranks after three weeks (2026-10-01)
Reporting verified 2026-10-05. Further sources: Yahoo Sports — Breaking down the final Saints injury report for Week 4 vs. Falcons (2026-10-04) · Crescent City Sports — Saints defense has Elliss and Granderson out, Werner questionable vs. Falcons (2026-10-03) · The Falcoholic — Falcons vs. Saints injury report: Deablo, Ebukam questionable for Monday night (2026-10-03) · Yahoo Sports — Falcons vs. Saints live updates: start time, TV channel, inactives (2026-10-05) · Bleacher Nation — Falcons vs Saints odds; Penix starts for Atlanta (2026-10-05) · neworleanssaints.com — Roster moves: Etienne to IR, Bentley and Ojabo to practice squad (2026-10-01) · CBS Sports — Falcons vs. Saints anytime touchdown picks; Juwan Johnson’s three TDs (2026-10-05) · Saints On SI — Saints vs. Falcons: injuries, key stats and players to watch (2026-10-05) · Sharp Football Analysis — Falcons–Saints Week 4 worksheet (Rich Hribar) (2026-10-01) · Yahoo Sports — Where the Saints’ defense ranks after three weeks (2026-10-01) · Audacy / WWL — Saints Week 4 injury report; Moore on Kamara and Miller (2026-10-01) · ESPN — Falcons 35, Packers 14, Thursday Sept. 24 (2026-09-24)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
ATL
-0.5
NO
-2.7
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Falcons
45%
fair value (books)
Saints
55%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
51%
Madden 27
49%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 — the graded call is above.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints is a NFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 17. The model has the Saints by 2 (56%) off a -2.7 to -0.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows. One input in this line is not a rating: the Falcons are without their usual starting quarterback (Michael Penix Jr. starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 1.8 points toward the Saints — already inside the number above.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Falcons offense grades -0.3 (20th of 32) against a Saints defense at -1.5 (20th) — 1.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-0.9, 26th) meets the Falcons defense (-0.1, 9th), a 0.9-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 6.2 wins (favored in 5 of 17) and the Falcons at 7.9 (favored in 6) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Falcons'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Saints at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT05ATLNO contract implies 12% for the Saints against a fair value (books) of 55% — a 43.8-point gap. No position on this game.
Full division picture on the NFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 55% for the Saints. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Saints | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 12% 12c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 51% 51c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 12% 12c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 12% 12c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 24 — final, played Monday, October 5, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 1.5 (55% to win), and the Falcons won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Saints by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Falcons. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT05ATLNO market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 17. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Saints by 2 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT05ATLNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Saints YES is quoted around 12c against a fair value (books) of 55%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints on Monday, October 5, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 4, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 6.2 wins (favored in 5) and the Falcons at 7.9 (favored in 6). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Falcons', by win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT05ATLNO. The Saints YES contract sits around 12c, which is an implied 12% — against our books-anchored fair value of 55%. That is a 43.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT05ATLNO has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Saints at 56% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 55% against a market price implying 52%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 55% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 52% on NO — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Falcons–Saints, Week 17 →
Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5
Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8
Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5
Lions at PanthersModel: evenThe engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
