Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears

Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph of wind, and 78% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 29°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.5 for the Bears, -0.5 for the Buccaneers, and lands on the Bears by 4.5 (63%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +1.9 (8th of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at -1.1 (20th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.5, 18th) meets the Bears defense (-0.9, 19th), a 1.4-point gap.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.9 projected wins for the Bears against 8.3 for the Buccaneers, favored in 11 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Buccaneers'.

The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2023: Buccaneers won 27-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bears 63%, Buccaneers 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bears contracts a buy at 58c or below and Buccaneers contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.