Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 4.5 in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 9 2026 — 64% to win, and a Chicago November game that has run a median 37°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 59c or below (or Buccaneers at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
TB
-0.6
CHI
+1.4
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Buccaneers
36%
model win prob
Bears
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 59c or below, or the Buccaneers at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Buccaneers at Bears
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Bears −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Bears −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Buccaneers at Bears in November
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph of wind, and 78% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 29°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.4 for the Bears, -0.6 for the Buccaneers, and lands on the Bears by 4.5 (64%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.0 (8th of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at -1.1 (20th) — 3.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.4, 18th) meets the Bears defense (-1.1, 19th), a 1.5-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Bears against 8.3 for the Buccaneers, favored in 11 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Buccaneers'.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2023: Buccaneers won 27-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bears 64%, Buccaneers 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bears contracts a buy at 59c or below and Buccaneers contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Buccaneers vs Bears on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI
- Market-implied (Bears)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bears)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bears at 59c or below, or the Buccaneers at 31c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Buccaneers vs Bears trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Buccaneers vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Bears in Week 9?
Our power-rating model picks the Bears by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Buccaneers, for a projected score of Bears 27, Buccaneers 22 on a ratings-implied 48.6-point total. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.4) and the Buccaneers 18th (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Chicago games in November?
Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph wind, 78% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 29°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 4.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Buccaneers vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 59c or below, or the Buccaneers at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Buccaneers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Buccaneers at 8.3 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Buccaneers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Buccaneers vs Bears?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bears at 59c or below or the Buccaneers at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Buccaneers vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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