Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8
Updated · market price
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 73% for the Bears in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Bears by 6 (70% to win) — a 2.3pp gap. Value side: the Buccaneers. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Bears by 5.0 against a market line of Bears by 6.0 — a 1.1-point lean toward the Buccaneers, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-301 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 2.3pp on Buccaneers moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
TB
+0.8
CHI
+3.2
Buccaneers
30%
fair value (books)
Bears
70%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Buccaneers at Bears How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Buccaneers vs Bears power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Buccaneers and Bears season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Buccaneers vs Bears — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Cold-weather math: Buccaneers at Bears in November
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph of wind, and 78% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 29°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +3.2 for the Bears, +0.8 for the Buccaneers, and lands on the Bears by 5 (63%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.5 (6th of 32) against a Buccaneers defense at +1.2 (3rd) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (-0.9, 25th) meets the Bears defense (+0.2, 7th), a 1.2-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Buccaneers at 7.3 (favored in 10) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Buccaneers'. Nothing on the Buccaneers' schedule projects harder than this one.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2023: Buccaneers won 27-17 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI contract implies 73% for the Bears against a fair value (books) of 70% — a 2.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Buccaneers as the value side at 29c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Buccaneers vs Bears on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI
- Market-implied (Bears)
- 73c · 73%
- Fair value — books (Bears)
- 70%
- Fair value vs market
- -2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 73c on the Bears is an implied 73% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 70%, a 2.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Buccaneers vs Bears line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Bears −3.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Bears −6. On Kalshi the Bears trade at 73¢ to win, a 73% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Bears −3.5 · O/U 48.5Sep 13 | Bears −6 · O/U 47.5 | |
| FanDuel | Bears −6.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | Bears −6.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Caesars | Bears −3.5 · O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Bears −6 · O/U 48.5 | |
| BetRivers | Bears −6.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | Bears −6 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Novig | Bears −6.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 29 | Bears −6.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Bears 73¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Buccaneers vs Bears trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% 73c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 72% 72c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 72% 72c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 73% 73c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 73% 73c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Buccaneers at Bears
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 10:39 AM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi10:44 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner10:39 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers to win | 31¢32.5¢ after fees | 29¢30.4¢ after fees | Polymarket US2.1¢ less |
| Bears to win | 73¢74.4¢ after fees | 73.8¢75.1¢ after fees | Even |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 400 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Buccaneers vs Bears
Buccaneers vs Bears — frequently asked
Who will win Bears vs Buccaneers?
The market line has the Bears at 70% to beat the Buccaneers in Week 9.
Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Bears in Week 9?
The market line has the Bears by 6 points, a 70% win probability over the Buccaneers (our model's own line: Bears by 5). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI market implies 73% for the Bears — a 2.3pp gap versus the market line.
What is the weather usually like for Chicago games in November?
Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph wind, 78% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 29°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 5-point line.
How do you take a position on Buccaneers vs Bears?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Bears YES is quoted around 73c against a fair value (books) of 70%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Buccaneers?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Buccaneers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14) and the Buccaneers at 7.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Buccaneers', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Buccaneers vs Bears?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI. The Bears YES contract sits around 73c, which is an implied 73% — against our books-anchored fair value of 70%. That is a 2.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Buccaneers vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08TBCHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Buccaneers vs Bears ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Buccaneers moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 30% against a market price implying 28%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 30% vs market 28% on TB. We rate it a position, sized at 0.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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After this one
More Week 9 matchups
Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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