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Home/NFL/Week 5/Ravens vs Falcons
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT)

Final. Falcons' next game: Falcons vs Buccaneers, Week 8 →Upset: Ravens closed +142 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Held Wed–Fri on Lamar's ankle; ruled OUT Fri 3:05 PM ET.

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT) — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Falcons by 3.5 (62% to win); the Ravens won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Falcons at 63c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT)Final / OT

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Falcons by 3.5 (62% to win). The Ravens won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Falcons: +27c — we archived the Falcons at 36c on Oct 5; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 63c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Ravens moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on BAL — kept as the pre-game record.37c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Ravens 30, Falcons 23: Tyler Huntley tied it with 40 seconds left and won it with a 1-yard sneak in overtime

Baltimore beat Atlanta 30-23 in overtime on Sunday night with Huntley starting in place of Lamar Jackson, out with an ankle injury. The Falcons led 23-15 with 2:31 left after Nick Folk’s third field goal; Huntley went 71 yards in six plays, found Devontez Walker for a 7-yard touchdown with 40 seconds left, and Derrick Henry ran in the two-point conversion. Baltimore received the overtime kickoff and drove 68 yards in 14 plays, Huntley scoring from the 1, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, in for an injured Michael Penix Jr., to end it. DraftKings opened Baltimore as a 4.5-point favorite and closed with Atlanta favored by 3, a 7.5-point move toward the team that lost; the 53 points, 46 of them in regulation, went over the closing total of 44.5.

Ravens 30—Falcons 23

Final / OT✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss, and nothing on our board pointed the other way. The stored probability had Atlanta at 62.2% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3.5-point line — and Atlanta lost in overtime, so it grades a miss. This was a QB-adjusted game on our board (Huntley for Jackson, ruled out Friday with the ankle), so the lean was capped at WATCH and no game-line position could publish: a game-line position stands only on PASS. The model’s own read was Atlanta by 4.7, a 1.2-point lean toward the Falcons, tier NONE, and Baltimore won by seven: the lean was wrong. There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for this game at all, live or voided. The posted line ran the same way as the miss, from Baltimore minus 4.5 at the DraftKings open to Atlanta minus 3 at the close, and the team it ran from won. The final pre-kickoff player board carried no PLAY row on either team. Eleven WATCH rows were visible; nine of them went 6-3, graded apart and never folded into the record, and two, Austin Hooper over 0.5 and over 1.5 catches, are left open because he does not appear in the ESPN box score. The wins: Kyle Pitts over 2.5 catches (five), Jahan Dotson and Justice Hill each over 1.5 catches (two apiece), Rashod Bateman over 1.5 (five), Penix under 1.5 touchdown passes (one) and Henry over 4.5 receiving yards (his 18-yard touchdown catch). The losses: Henry over 1.5 catches (one), Hill over 14.5 receiving yards (five) and Olamide Zaccheaus over 0.5 catches, graded at zero because he returned kicks and punts but has no receiving line. Four suppressed rows, three Penix passing-yard unders and Henry to score, count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Ravens −4.5 → Falcons −3
Total
48.5 → 44.5
Moneyline
BAL −218 / ATL +180 → BAL +142 / ATL −170

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 4 to 44.5; the game landed on 53.

How it happened

Q1

Jessie Bates III returned an Andrews fumble 36 yards, and Atlanta led at the half

Baltimore opened with a 10-play drive and Tyler Loop’s 21-yard field goal. On its second possession Huntley hit Mark Andrews over the middle, Sydney Brown forced a fumble, and Bates picked it up at the Baltimore 36 and took it the rest of the way. Loop added two 51-yarders in the second quarter, the second on the final play of the half, around Penix’s 5-yard touchdown pass to Pitts.

After one
Falcons 7, Ravens 3
Halftime
Falcons 14, Ravens 9

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Hill’s 47-yard run set up Henry’s touchdown catch, and the two-point try failed

Bijan Robinson ran 38 yards to the Baltimore 3 on the first drive of the half, and Atlanta settled for Folk’s 23-yarder. Hill answered with a 47-yard run to the Atlanta 18, and two plays later Huntley found Henry for the touchdown; the two-point pass to Andrews fell incomplete. Atlanta then held the ball for 16 plays and 8:26 across the quarter break and took a 20-15 lead on Folk’s 34-yarder.

After three
Falcons 17, Ravens 15
Atlanta’s long drive
16 plays · 74 yds · 8:26 · FG

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Huntley to Walker with 40 seconds left, Henry for two, and Penix hurt on the next drive

Folk’s 48-yarder made it 23-15 with 2:31 left. Huntley’s tying drive went 71 yards in six plays, helped by a 29-yard pass-interference penalty on Xavier Watts and three Bateman catches for 38 yards, and Walker caught the 7-yard touchdown; Henry ran in the two-point conversion. On Atlanta’s last possession of regulation Tavius Robinson sacked Penix, who was hurt on the play, and the Falcons punted the game into overtime.

End of regulation
Ravens 23, Falcons 23
Tying drive
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:51

ESPN — play-by-play

Overtime

Fourteen plays, a sneak from the 1, and Hamilton’s interception

Baltimore received the kickoff and kept the ball for 14 plays and 7:03, and Huntley scored on second-and-goal from the 1 with 2:57 left. Tagovailoa hit Drake London for 20 yards, then threw for London again, and Hamilton intercepted at the Baltimore 40.

Final
Ravens 30, Falcons 23 (OT)
Huntley
24 of 32 · 201 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT; 1 rushing TD
Henry
24 carries · 102 yds; 1 catch · 18 yds · 1 TD
Penix
19 of 32 · 240 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Tagovailoa
2 of 3 · 34 yds · 1 INT
London
7 catches · 118 yds
Rushing / possession
BAL 208 yds · 35:10 — ATL 110 yds · 32:45

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for it of any status, and the nfl_prop_edges rows on the final pre-kickoff board carried no result when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play; the WATCH grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • One passage of the AP recap places Huntley’s 1-yard score “late in regulation.” ESPN’s scoring summary and play-by-play put it in overtime, with 2:57 left, and this page follows ESPN.
  • Austin Hooper does not appear in the ESPN box score. Whether he was active and not targeted, or inactive, was not confirmed, so both his WATCH rows are left ungraded. Zaccheaus appears only in the return tables, so his catch row is graded at zero.
  • Penix is listed with a rib injury; the ESPN play-by-play has him returning for one more snap in regulation before Tagovailoa played overtime, and his condition was not known when this was published. Mike Hughes was hurt on the play before Walker’s touchdown and is noted as returning. Jackson’s ankle and Andrew Vorhees (foot), both listed out, had no new information.
  • The DraftKings line moved 7.5 points, from Baltimore −4.5 to Atlanta −3, and Jackson was ruled out on Friday. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not claim the whole move was the injury news.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Huntley leads late TD drive to force OT and then scores on 1-yard run as Ravens beat Falcons 30-23

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY BAL +1.2
vs ATL -3.5
HOME ATL -0.5
Fair (books) · ATL 62% home win prob
Kalshi · ATL — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Atlanta, GA PASS — no position

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Ravens

38%

fair value (books)

Falcons

62%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

58%

Madden 27

42%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Ravens at Falcons How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Ravens at FalconsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Ravens at Falcons Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Ravens–Falcons spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Ravens vs Falcons power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Baltimore Ravens+1.211thPlayoff
    Atlanta Falcons-0.518thAverage

    Ravens and Falcons season outlook

    BALATL
    Average wins9.37.9
    Make playoffs48%36%
    Win division14%29%
    Win Super Bowl3.0%2.6%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Ravens vs Falcons — player pages

    All players →

    Bijan Robinson

    RB

    Derrick Henry

    RB

    Drake London

    WR

    Zay Flowers

    WR

    Lamar Jackson

    QB

    Kyle Pitts

    TE

    Mark Andrews

    TE

    Rashod Bateman

    WR

    Brian Robinson

    RB

    Ja'Kobi Lane

    WR

    Justice Hill

    RB

    Josh Cuevas

    Michael Penix Jr.

    QB

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Ravens at Falcons

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT) — the graded call is above.

    The Ravens travel to face the Falcons in Week 5. Our power ratings put the Falcons 18th of 32 at -0.5 (Average tier) and the Ravens 11th at +1.2 (Playoff tier) — a 1.7-point gap that home field and the quarterback situation turn into a 4.5-point line on the Falcons, 63% to win. It rates as the 12th-widest of the 15 games in Week 5. One input in this line is not a rating: the Ravens are without their usual starting quarterback (Tyler Huntley starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 3.8 points toward the Falcons — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +2.0 (10th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.1 (9th) — 2.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (-0.3, 20th) meets the Ravens defense (-1.1, 17th), a 0.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Ravens +0.4 (17th of 32) to -0.1 (30th).

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Falcons' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Ravens'.

    One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 17-9 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Falcons are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Falcons here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Ravens vs Falcons on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL
    Market-implied (Falcons)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Falcons)
    62%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 62% for the Falcons. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Ravens vs Falcons trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueFalconsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig62% 62cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Ravens vs Falcons

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    Ravens vs Falcons — frequently asked

    Who won Ravens vs Falcons in Week 5?

    Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT) — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Falcons by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Ravens won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Ravens vs Falcons before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Falcons by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Ravens. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Ravens vs Falcons?

    Ravens offense (+2.0, 10th of 32) against Falcons defense (-0.1, 9th) — 2.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Ravens (+0.4, 17th).

    How do you take a position on Ravens vs Falcons?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Falcons at 60c or below, or the Ravens at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Falcons host the Ravens?

    Baltimore Ravens visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.

    What does the model project for the Falcons and Ravens this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Falcons at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Ravens', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Falcons?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Ravens vs Falcons on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Falcons?

    59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Falcons at 63% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Ravens moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 37%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on BAL — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Ravens: Week 6 at BrownsModel line →Falcons: Week 6 vs BearsModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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