Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Ravens

43%

model win prob

Falcons

57%

model win prob

Model line

Falcons −2.5

Kalshi (Falcons)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Falcons — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Baltimore Ravens-0.518thAverage

Atlanta Falcons-0.620thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 5, the Baltimore Ravens travel to face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Falcons 20th of 32 (Average tier, -0.6) and the Ravens 18th (Average tier, -0.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Falcons by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Falcons.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Falcons) / 43% (Ravens) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Ravens vs Falcons — frequently asked

Who is favored in Ravens vs Falcons in Week 5?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Falcons by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Ravens. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Ravens vs Falcons?

Home win probability 57% (Falcons), away 43% (Ravens). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Falcons rate 20th of 32 (Average tier), the Ravens 18th (Average tier).

Can you trade Ravens vs Falcons on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.