Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Falcons by 1 in Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons, NFL Week 5 2026 — 53% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.6 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Falcons at 48c or below (or Ravens at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.2
ATL
-0.4
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Ravens
47%
model win prob
Falcons
53%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
58%
Madden 27
42%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Falcons at 48c or below, or the Ravens at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Ravens at Falcons
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Falcons −7.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
4 more rungsFalcons −9.5 → Falcons −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Ravens–Falcons is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Ravens rate +1.2 (13th of 32) against -0.4 for the Falcons (16th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.6-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Falcons anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.6 projected wins for the Falcons against 9.2 for the Ravens, favored in 8 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 12th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Ravens'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.0 (12th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.7 (17th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 11th), a 0.5-point gap.
One team has owned this series: the Ravens are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Ravens won 17-9 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Falcons are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Falcons at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Falcons at 48c or below, Ravens at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Falcons on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL
- Market-implied (Falcons)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Falcons)
- 53%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Falcons at 48c or below, or the Ravens at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Ravens vs Falcons trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Falcons | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Ravens vs Falcons — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Falcons in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Falcons by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Ravens, for a projected score of Falcons 24, Ravens 23 on a ratings-implied 46.3-point total. The Falcons rate 16th of 32 (-0.4) and the Ravens 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Falcons (-0.4, 16th) and Ravens (+1.2, 13th) are only 1.6 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Falcons?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Falcons at 48c or below, or the Ravens at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Falcons host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.
What does the model project for the Falcons and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Falcons at 8.6 wins (favored in 8) and the Ravens at 9.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Ravens vs Falcons?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Falcons at 48c or below or the Ravens at 42c or below, off a 1-point line.
Can you trade Ravens vs Falcons on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11BALATL. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Falcons?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Falcons at 53% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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