Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chargers by 6.5 (72% to win); the Raiders won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chargers at 73c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Chargers by 6.5 (72% to win). The Raiders won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Chargers: -1c — we archived the Chargers at 74c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 73c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Cousins hit Tre Tucker for 40 in the second quarter and Cody White twice from inside fifteen in the second half, Matt Gay kicked a 59-yarder with four seconds left in the half, and the Raiders beat a Chargers team that turned it over three times. Los Angeles ran for 127 and Omarion Hampton had 94 of them; Las Vegas ran for 57 at two yards a carry and did not need to. The final two points, per ESPN’s log, came off a Justin Herbert incompletion in his own end zone with 1:41 left.
Raiders 26—Chargers 14
Final✗ Call missedThe chip grades the stored probability, which had the Chargers at 71.7% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 6.5-point margin — and the Chargers lost, so it reads a miss. The model’s own read was the same wrong team by the same amount: Los Angeles by 6.5, all but identical to the anchor, so there was no lean, no position, and no weekly-edges ledger row for 2026_02_LV_LAC. A 72% favorite lost by twelve and both the market and the model were wrong together, which is the cleanest kind of miss to describe and the least flattering. The Wednesday article did not touch the game. The player board had its best afternoon of the slate here, and the reason should be stated before the record is: nearly every visible call was an under on a Chargers passing game that scored fourteen. Visible calls went seven and one. David Njoku under 24.5 receiving yards at 50.5c cleared on nine and under 2.5 receptions at 55.5c on one; Herbert under 1.5 passing touchdowns at 51c and under 2.5 at 23c cleared on one; Keaton Mitchell under 24.5 rushing yards at 45.5c cleared on exactly 24 — by half a yard; and on the other side Cousins over 0.5 passing touchdowns at 67.5c and over 1.5 at 30.5c cleared on three. The one miss was Oronde Gadsden II over 2.5 receptions at 38c, STRONG, on a 3.23 projection; he caught two, one of them for a touchdown, and the row carried the worst CLV on the slate — it closed at 22.5c, fifteen and a half cents against the entry, so the market had already decided that call was wrong before kickoff. Six passing-yards strikes also sit in the ledger, three Herbert unders that would have cleared on his 192 and three Cousins unders that lost on his 253; none count. Eleven WATCH rows went three and eight and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 1 to 43.5; the game landed on 40.
Q1
Neither side scored in the opening quarter. The Chargers would hold the ball for 32:17 on the day and reach the red zone only twice; the Raiders reached it three times and scored on two.
Q2
Cousins found Tucker for a 40-yard touchdown with 11:51 left in the half. Hampton tied it from the one with 5:26 to go. Gay’s 59-yarder with four seconds left sent the Raiders in up 10-7. Tucker would finish with five catches for 119 on seven targets.
Q3
Herbert hit Gadsden from ten with 9:49 left in the third for 14-10, the only lead Los Angeles held. Cousins answered with a 13-yarder to White with 3:53 to go for 17-14. Herbert finished 15 of 27 for 192 with the touchdown and two interceptions, sacked three times; the Chargers turned it over three times in all.
Q4
Cousins found White again from eleven with 2:59 left for 24-14 — White’s second catch and second touchdown of the day. With 1:41 to play ESPN’s log records two Las Vegas points on a Herbert incompletion intended for Derius Davis, a safety by the arithmetic. Cousins finished 19 of 29 for 253 with three touchdowns and an interception. Ashton Jeanty carried 21 times for 48.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Las Vegas arrives 1-0 under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak after a 27-13 home win over Miami, while Los Angeles opens 0-1 following a 14-26 home loss to Arizona at the same stadium it now defends ([NFL standings](https://www.nfl.com/standings/league/2026/REG)). The Chargers are starting rookie Jake Slaughter at center with Tyler Biadasz on Reserve/Injured, and they held Khalil Mack, Ladd McConkey, Teair Tart and Elijah Molden out of Wednesday practice ([Chargers injury report](https://www.chargers.com/team/injury-report/)). Las Vegas counters with Maxx Crosby — confirmed on the active roster and coming off 1.5 sacks — but may again be without tight end Brock Bowers, who has not practiced this week.
Raiders pass rush · Chargers protection
Crosby is confirmed still in Las Vegas — #98 on the active roster and credited with 1.5 sacks in the opener — and he now lines up opposite free-agent addition Kwity Paye, who led the club with 2.0 sacks in Week 1. The Raiders generated five sacks as a unit against Miami. Los Angeles meets that with rookie Jake Slaughter at center because Tyler Biadasz went to Reserve/Injured on Aug. 23, and swing tackle Trey Pipkins III did not practice with a knee issue. Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt remain the bookends, so the pressure question is the interior and the depth behind it rather than the edges.
Source: Raiders team stats
Chargers pass rush · Raiders protection
Khalil Mack is confirmed still a Charger at age 35 and is the listed starting EDGE, with Tuli Tuipulotu on the other side and Bud Dupree and rookie Akheem Mesidor behind them. Mack did not practice Wednesday, but the designation was NIR/Rest rather than an injury, which typically points to a veteran maintenance day rather than availability risk. Las Vegas protects with Kolton Miller at left tackle, free-agent center Tyler Linderbaum, Jackson Powers-Johnson at right guard and DJ Glaze at right tackle; left guard Spencer Burford is the least-established of the five. The Chargers recorded three sacks in the opener.
Source: Chargers roster
Raiders run offense · Chargers run defense
Ashton Jeanty carried the Week 1 offense with 23 rushes for 102 yards plus six catches for 45 yards and two receiving touchdowns, and he was a full participant Wednesday and Thursday despite an ankle listing. Rookie Mike Washington Jr. is the change-of-pace back and averaged 5.9 yards on seven carries. The Chargers' run-stopping interior is the concern: nose-type Teair Tart did not practice with an ankle injury and Dalvin Tomlinson was limited with a hamstring, leaving Jamaree Caldwell, Justin Eboigbe and rookie Nick Barrett as the fallbacks. Daiyan Henley and Del'Shawn Phillips are the starting linebackers, with Denzel Perryman on Reserve/Injured.
Source: Raiders team stats
Chargers run offense · Raiders run defense
Los Angeles ran for only 81 yards on 21 attempts (3.9 per carry) in the opener, with Omarion Hampton taking 12 of those carries for 43 yards and a touchdown and Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal behind him. That is a thin run-game base against a Raiders front that held Miami to 13 points and got a full-game contribution from its new linebackers — free-agent signings Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, who now start alongside interior linemen Tonka Hemingway and Adam Butler. Dean led the Raiders with six tackles and added a sack. The run-game math tilts toward Las Vegas unless the Chargers' interior blocking settles.
Source: Chargers team stats
Raiders pass offense · Chargers coverage
The Chargers' listed outside corners are Tarheeb Still and Donte Jackson, with Cam Hart and Deane Leonard as the depth and Derwin James Jr. and Elijah Molden at safety. Leonard was limited with an abdomen injury and Molden did not practice with a hamstring, which thins the nickel and post-safety rotation. Las Vegas lines up Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor outside with Jack Bech in the slot, but the matchup that matters most is unresolved: Brock Bowers was ruled out of Week 1 with a knee injury and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday this week. Which corner travels with which receiver is not publicly assigned — neither club publishes shadow assignments.
Source: Chargers depth chart
Chargers pass offense · Raiders coverage
Las Vegas starts Eric Stokes and Darien Porter outside with Taron Johnson — acquired by trade from Buffalo — in the slot, and Porter did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a foot injury, which would push rookie Jermod McCoy or Darrell Luter Jr. into a bigger role. Los Angeles has its own uncertainty on the other side: Ladd McConkey, who led the club with five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown in the opener, did not practice with a rib injury. If McConkey is limited, more of the load falls on Quentin Johnston, Tre' Harris and veteran tight end David Njoku, who caught five passes for 58 yards in Week 1.
Source: Raiders depth chart
Quarterback play · both directions
Both starters are confirmed. Kirk Cousins is the Raiders' starting quarterback — signed in 2026 free agency after Las Vegas traded Geno Smith to the Jets — and went 21-of-30 for 160 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions (88.2 rating) in the opener, reaching 300 career passing touchdowns. Justin Herbert remains the Chargers' starter and went 17-of-27 for 209 yards with a touchdown and an interception (83.7 rating) while taking three sacks. Cousins' 5.3 yards per attempt is the number that stands out: efficient in the red area, short of the field. Herbert is in a new system under offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.
Source: Raiders team stats
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Raiders team stats · Chargers depth chart · Chargers transactions · Chargers roster · Chargers injury report · Raiders depth chart · Raiders injury report · Chargers team stats · Raiders transactions · Raiders official active roster · Raiders official coaching staff · Raiders official news index
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
LV
-4.2
LAC
-3.2
This one's been played. Get the full Week 2 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Raiders
28%
fair value (books)
Chargers
72%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Ashton Jeanty
RB
Omarion Hampton
RB
Brock Bowers
TE
Ladd McConkey
WR
Justin Herbert
QB
Quentin Johnston
WR
Oronde Gadsden II
TE
Keaton Mitchell
RB
Jalen Nailor
WR
Tre Tucker
WR
Mike Washington Jr.
RB
Tre Harris
WR
Michael Mayer
Charlie Kolar
Connor Heyward
Kirk Cousins
Cody White
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
LV Raiders D/ST
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Kimani Vidal
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 — the graded call is above.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers is a AFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 14. The model has the Chargers by 6.5 (67%) off a -3.2 to -4.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade +0.2 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -1.3 (27th) — 1.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-3.5, 32nd) meets the Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th), a 0.4-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 14, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3) — 2.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Raiders'.
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 31-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 67% on the Chargers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 72% for the Chargers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 73% 73c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
A live tile locked to Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
A live card locked to Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Chargers, Week 2 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-chargers-week-02-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Las Vegas Raiders 26, Los Angeles Chargers 14 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chargers by 6.5 (72% to win), and the Raiders won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Chargers by 6.5 points, a 72% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 14. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Chargers by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chargers at 70c or below, or the Raiders at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 4.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Raiders', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chargers at 67% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 2 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
They run it back in Week 14. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Raiders–Chargers, Week 14 →
Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4
Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4
Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5
Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6
Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4
Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7
Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5
Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
