Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 75% for the Chargers in Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Chargers by 8 (67% to win) — a 8.0pp gap. Value side: the Raiders.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-011 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 8.0pp on Raiders moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LV
-6.0
LAC
-0.6
Raiders
33%
model win prob
Chargers
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
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Why the model has the Chargers by 8
The model does not think this one is close. The Chargers rate 19th of 32 at -0.6, the Raiders 32nd at -6.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Chargers by 8 — 67% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 2 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 4.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.9, 24th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Chargers' entire schedule.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 14, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 31-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Chargers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC contract implies 75% for the Chargers against our 67% — a 8.0-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Raiders as the value side at 24c.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Chargers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC
- Market-implied (Chargers)
- 75c · 75%
- Our model (Chargers)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- -8.0pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 75c on the Chargers is an implied 75% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 67%, a 8.0pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Raiders vs Chargers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75% 75c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 75% 75c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 75% 75c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Chargers in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Chargers by 8 points, a 67% win probability over the Raiders. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC market implies 75% for the Chargers — a 8.0pp gap versus the model.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 8-point line comes from a 5.4-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 33% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Chargers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chargers YES is quoted around 75c against our 67% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Chargers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. The Chargers YES contract sits around 75c, which is an implied 75% — against our model's 67%. That is a 8.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Raiders vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Chargers?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chargers at 67% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 33% against a market price implying 25%, an edge of +8.0 points. Model 33% vs market 25% on LV. We rate it lean, sized at 2.7% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 14. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Raiders–Chargers, Week 14 →
More Week 2 matchups
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