Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 73% for the Chargers in Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Chargers by 6.5 (73% to win) — a 0.2pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The model's own line is Chargers by 6.5 against a market line of Chargers by 7.0 — a 0.5-point lean toward the Raiders, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LV
-6.0
LAC
-0.6
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Raiders
27%
model win prob
Chargers
73%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: LAC 72% (-0.7pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Raiders at Chargers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10 more rungsChargers +14.5 → Chargers +2.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers +1.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chargers −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
AFC West math: Raiders at Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers is a AFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 14. The model has the Chargers by 6.5 (73%) off a -0.6 to -6.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Chargers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Raiders offense at -4.2 (32nd) — 4.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Chargers offense (-0.9, 24th) meets the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th), a 1.1-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 14, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Chargers' schedule and the 6th-hardest on the Raiders'. It is the softest spot on the Chargers' entire schedule.
One team has owned this series: the Chargers are 32-16 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Chargers won 31-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Chargers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 73% Chargers number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC contract implies 73% for the Chargers against our 73% — a 0.2-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Chargers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC
- Market-implied (Chargers)
- 73c · 73%
- Our model (Chargers)
- 73%
- Model vs market
- +0.2pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 73c on the Chargers is an implied 73% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 73%, a 0.2pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Raiders vs Chargers trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chargers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% 73c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 74% 74c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarketinternational book | 74% 74c | Open Polymarket → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 73% 73c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 73% 73c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Chargers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Chargers in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Chargers by 6.5 points, a 73% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Chargers 24, Raiders 17 on a ratings-implied 41.0-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC market implies 73% for the Chargers — a 0.2pp agreement with the model.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 14. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Chargers by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Chargers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Chargers YES is quoted around 73c against our 73% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chargers host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Chargers and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chargers at 8.1 wins (favored in 8) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Chargers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Chargers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. The Chargers YES contract sits around 73c, which is an implied 73% — against our model's 73%. That is a 0.2pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Raiders vs Chargers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20LVLAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 73% on a team like the Chargers?
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Chargers at 73% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Chargers moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 73% against a market price implying 73%, an edge of +0.2 points. Model 73% vs market 73% on LAC. We pass — no position.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 14. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Raiders–Chargers, Week 14 →
More Week 2 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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