New Orleans Saints: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Saints: our 10,000-season simulation projects 6.7 wins in 2026 (26th of 32, Below Avg tier; model 6.7), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and NFC South standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 22 · market-implied 20 · PMP 28 — a 8-place split between Market and PMP. Experts vs. market on the Saints →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
New Orleans Saints
± 1.6 · 26th of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 6.7. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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A live card locked to the New Orleans Saints — projected 2026 wins against the Kalshi KXNFLWINS line for this one club, not "whichever team has the biggest gap today" — for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Our sim and the Madden simulation land on opposite sides of the 6.77 market line. They disagree with each other, so this is a market to watch rather than one to build a position in.
Madden and our model broadly agree on the Saints — 24th on talent against 27th on play-by-play.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 6.77
+1.4pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 6.65 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 6.73 ± 1.61). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Saints
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 7+ wins at 56¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+winsthin—outside band
- 15+winsthin—outside band
- 14+winsthin—outside band
- 13+winsthin—outside band
- 12+winsthin—outside band
- 11+wins—outside band
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 7–8
- 7+wins——
- 6+wins—outside band
- 5+wins—outside band
- 4+wins—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 4+rec52¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 3+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 52¢, the books imply 48¢ — 3.2 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 6+ rec at 55¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 10+rec——
- 9+rec——
- 8+rec——
- 7+rec44¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 5–6
- 6+rec56¢—
- 5+rec——
- 4+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 7+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 59¢, the books imply 56¢ — 2.5 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 6.77
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 6.65 (model 6.73), the Madden 27 simulation 7.49, against 6.77 market-implied wins — a -0.12-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 10 vs Panthers
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 49%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall -2.7 ranks 27th of 32 (Below Avg tier). How Saints rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 2-4 already banked sum to the model's 6.7 wins; the 6.7-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Saints props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan JohnsonNO v PIT | 4+ rec | 48.5¢ | 51.7%6bk | -3.2¢ | over · Novig 49.5¢under · ESPN Bet 50¢ |
| Chris OlaveNO v PIT | 7+ rec | 42.0¢ | 44.5%3bk | -2.5¢ | over · Novig 44.4¢under · Novig 58¢ |
| Alvin KamaraNO v PIT | 15+ rush yds | 55.0¢ | 53.2%4bk | +1.8¢ | over · ESPN Bet 55.6¢under · Novig 45.5¢ |
| Tyler ShoughNO v PIT | 15+ rush yds | 48.5¢ | 49.8%5bk | -1.3¢ | over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · Novig 52.6¢ |
| Chris OlaveNO v PIT | 6+ rec | 54.5¢ | 55.5%4bk | -1.0¢ | over · ProphetX 55.9¢under · Novig 46.1¢ |
| Alvin KamaraNO v PIT | 3+ rec | 52.0¢ | 51.2%6bk | +0.8¢ | over · DK 52.4¢under · Novig 50¢ |
| Devaughn VeleNO v PIT | 4+ rec | 57.5¢ | 57.0%4bk | +0.5¢ | over · Novig 56.5¢under · DK 44.2¢ |
| Kendre MillerNO v PIT | 1+ rec | 60.5¢ | 60.0%4bk | +0.5¢ | over · DK 63.2¢under · Novig 40.5¢ |
See all 83 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 105 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Saints player pages
All players →Chris Olave
WR
Jordyn Tyson
WR
Tyler Shough
QB
Juwan Johnson
TE
Alvin Kamara
RB
Devaughn Vele
Kendre Miller
Bryce Lance
Noah Fant
CJ Donaldson
NO Saints D/ST
Audric Estime
Blake Bortles
Bub Means
Devin Neal
Hunter Dekkers
Ja'Lynn Polk
Jalen Moreno-Cropper
Kevin Austin
Mason Tipton
Moliki Matavao
Ronnie Bell
Spencer Rattler
Travis Etienne
Trey Palmer
Ty Chandler
Zach Wilson
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFC South ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Panthers
9.0
-0.0
Falcons
7.2
-1.1
Saints
6.7
-2.7
Buccaneers
6.3
-0.6
Model has the Saints 3rd in the NFC South. Division hub →
Division odds: Saints 19¢ to win the NFC South on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
6.7
10,000 seasons · 9% reach 10+
Make playoffs
17%
49% win 6 or fewer
Win division
13%
1% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
0.7%
26th of 32 · 2% reach it
The Saints draw a 0.510 opponent win rate — the 9th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
24
78.9 composite · QB 77
Simulated wins
7.5
24% reach 10+
Playoffs
31%
21% win division
Super Bowl
0.9%
SoS 0.490 (25th hardest)
Madden and our model broadly agree on the Saints — 24th on talent against 27th on play-by-play.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Saints 2026 — frequently asked
What is the New Orleans Saints win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 6.8 wins for the Saints in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 6.7 wins — a 0.1-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Saints rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Saints sit at a -2.7-point power rating — 27th of 32 — in the Below Avg tier. That rating (offense -1.3, defense -1.2, special teams -0.2) is the input behind every Saints prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade New Orleans Saints games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Saints season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Saints in for 2026?
The Saints play in the NFC South, alongside Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers. Our model has them projected 3rd in the NFC South on 6.7 expected wins.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Saints markets
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- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
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- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →