Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Vikings by 1.5 in Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 16 2026 — 54% to win, and Vikings 27th of 32, Commanders 23rd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27WASMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 49c or below (or Commanders at 41c or below) is where the model would take a position.
WAS
-1.5
MIN
-2.6
Commanders
46%
model win prob
Vikings
54%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27WASMINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 49c or below, or the Commanders at 41c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Commanders at Vikings
The Commanders travel to face the Vikings in Week 16. Our power ratings put the Vikings 27th of 32 at -2.6 (Average tier) and the Commanders 23rd at -1.5 (Average tier) — a 1.1-point gap that home field widens to a 1.5-point line on the Vikings, 54% to win. It rates as the 10th-widest of the 16 games in Week 16.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Commanders offense grades +1.0 (13th of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Commanders defense (-2.9, 30th), a 0.3-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.1 projected wins for the Vikings against 7.4 for the Commanders, favored in 4 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Commanders'.
One team has owned this series: the Vikings are 9-4 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 31-0 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Vikings at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC27WASMIN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 54% / 46% — the tradable window is narrow: Vikings at 49c or below, Commanders at 41c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Vikings in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Vikings by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Commanders. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Commanders 23rd (-1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27WASMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Commanders vs Vikings?
Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th of 32) against Vikings defense (-0.5, 16th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Commanders vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27WASMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 49c or below, or the Commanders at 41c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Commanders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Commanders at 7.4 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 10th-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Vikings?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Vikings at 54% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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