Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Commanders
45%
model win prob
Vikings
55%
model win prob
Model line
Vikings −1.5
Kalshi (Vikings)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Vikings — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 16, the Washington Commanders travel to face the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Vikings 26th of 32 (Average tier, -1.3) and the Commanders 20th (Average tier, -0.5). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Vikings by 1.5 — a 55% win probability for the Vikings.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 55% (Vikings) / 45% (Commanders) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Vikings in Week 16?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Vikings by 1.5 points and gives them a 55% win probability over the Commanders. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Commanders vs Vikings?
Home win probability 55% (Vikings), away 45% (Commanders). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Vikings rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Commanders 20th (Average tier).
Can you trade Commanders vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Vikings host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, December 27, 2026 in NFL Week 16, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.