Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Saints by 2.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints, NFL Week 5 2026 — 58% to win, and Saints 25th of 32, Vikings 27th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Saints at 53c or below (or Vikings at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
-2.6
NO
-2.3
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Vikings
42%
model win prob
Saints
58%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Saints at 53c or below, or the Vikings at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Vikings at Saints
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Saints −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsSaints −10.5 → Saints −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Vikings at Saints
The Vikings travel to face the Saints in Week 5. Our power ratings put the Saints 25th of 32 at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) and the Vikings 27th at -2.6 (Below Avg tier) — a 0.3-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the Saints, 58% to win. It rates as the 15th-widest of the 15 games in Week 5.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Saints grade -0.5 on that side of the ball (13th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.5 (28th) — 2.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.5, 27th) meets the Vikings defense (-0.5, 15th), a 1.0-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Vikings +0.4 (16th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.8 projected wins for the Saints against 7.2 for the Vikings, favored in 7 and 4 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Vikings'.
On the calendar, the Vikings are on 7 days and the Saints are on 6 days. The Saints are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Vikings' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Vikings won 27-19 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Saints at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 58% / 42% — the tradable window is narrow: Saints at 53c or below, Vikings at 37c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Saints on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO
- Market-implied (Saints)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Saints)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Saints at 53c or below, or the Vikings at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Vikings vs Saints trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Saints | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Vikings vs Saints — frequently asked
Who is favored in Vikings vs Saints in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Saints by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Vikings, for a projected score of Saints 22, Vikings 19 on a ratings-implied 41.0-point total. The Saints rate 25th of 32 (-2.3) and the Vikings 27th (-2.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Vikings vs Saints?
Vikings offense (-2.5, 28th of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 13th) — 2.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Vikings (+0.4, 16th).
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Saints?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 53c or below, or the Vikings at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Saints host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
What does the model project for the Saints and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 7.8 wins (favored in 7) and the Vikings at 7.2 (favored in 4). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Vikings', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Saints?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Saints at 53c or below or the Vikings at 37c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Vikings vs Saints on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Saints?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Saints at 58% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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