Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 2.5 (59% to win); the Vikings won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Vikings at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 2.5 (59% to win). The Vikings won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Vikings: +1c — we archived the Vikings at 55c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Minnesota won 23-13 at the Caesars Superdome to go 5-0 and dropped New Orleans to 1-4. The Saints led 7-6 at the half on a touchdown set up by an Aaron Jones fumble, then lost the second-half kickoff, and Jefferson, back from the ankle injury that kept him out of Week 4, finished the short drive that followed with Kyler Murray’s 15-yard touchdown. Jonas Sanker’s 87-yard fumble return tied it at 13, but Jones scored from eight yards, Will Reichard kicked a 55-yarder, and Byron Murphy Jr. intercepted Tyler Shough twice; New Orleans finished with 142 yards. DraftKings opened Minnesota −1.5 and closed −2.5, and the 36 points finished under both the opening 44.5 and the closing 41.5.
Vikings 23—Saints 13
Final✓ Call hitThree claims sit on this page, and this is the one game of the Week 5 Sunday slate with a live ledger position, so they need keeping apart. First, the chip. It grades our stored probability, which had Minnesota at 58.75% and New Orleans at 41.25% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point line — and the Vikings won, so it reads a hit. Second, the model’s own read. It had New Orleans by 0.4, a 2.9-point WATCH lean toward the Saints, with the quarterback gate at PASS; Minnesota won by ten, so the lean was wrong. Third, the ledger, and it did not come from the model. 2026_05_MIN_NO_moneyline, revision 4, is a MODERATE position on Minnesota (KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO-MIN), entered at 55.5¢ on Sunday 2026-10-11 at 12:05 UTC. Its 3.25-point edge is a gap between venues: the books’ consensus had New Orleans at 41.25%, Kalshi had the Saints at 44.5¢, so the Vikings contract at 55.5¢ sat 3.25 points under the books’ 58.75%. The model leaned the other way. The last price in our archive, at 16:58 UTC, two minutes before kickoff, was still 55.5¢, a CLV of 0¢: the gap neither closed nor widened. Minnesota won 23-13, which the score grades a win; the ledger has not graded it yet. All a win here can say is that the position bought Minnesota cheaper than the books priced them; it says nothing for the model’s read of this game, which pointed the other way and was wrong. Every other ledger row on the Sunday slate was voided before kickoff and counts in neither direction. On the player board the house published one PLAY row, and it lost: Shough over 0.5 touchdown passes, MODERATE, YES at 74.5¢, closed at 74.5¢. He threw none. Five visible WATCH rows went 1-4 and are graded apart: Murray under 1.5 touchdown passes won (he threw one); Noah Fant over 1.5 catches and over 14.5 receiving yards lost (one catch, seven yards), and Shough over 1.5 touchdown passes and over 9.5 rushing yards lost. Seven suppressed rows count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 3 to 41.5; the game landed on 36.
Q1
Minnesota opened with nine plays and 51 yards and Reichard’s 40-yarder. After a Saints three-and-out the Vikings went 63 yards in 11 plays before Jones lost a fumble and limped off favoring his left knee; he came back. New Orleans then held the ball for 7:18 across the quarter break.
Q2
The Saints’ drive off the fumble went 66 yards in 15 plays and Miller scored from the 2, New Orleans’ only offensive touchdown of the day. The next four possessions, two each, were three-and-outs. Minnesota took over with 1:49 left, went 33 yards in seven plays, and Reichard’s 54-yarder as time expired made it 7-6.
Q3
Returner Jayden Price was stripped on the opening kickoff of the half and Minnesota recovered at the New Orleans 37; six plays later Jefferson came down with Murray’s 15-yard throw behind three defenders in the back of the end zone. Murphy intercepted Shough on the next drive. Then Myles Price fumbled after a catch, Sanker returned it 87 yards, and with the extra point missed it was 13-13 with 2:34 left in the quarter.
Q4
Minnesota answered the tie with six plays and 70 yards, and Jones scored from the 8 fifty-four seconds into the fourth quarter. Reichard’s 55-yarder with 7:01 left made it a two-score game. New Orleans turned it over on downs, Murphy intercepted Shough again, and the Vikings ran out the last 2:49.
Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jefferson, Jones and Murray all produce to help the unbeaten Vikings top the slumping Saints 23-13
Tyler Shough banged up his left hand playing all 74 snaps on Monday night, was estimated limited at a Wednesday walkthrough, and carries no designation — so this game is an Oracle Fork, and the matchup page above publishes our line both with him and without him. The sharper story is that the quarterback uncertainty runs both ways. Minnesota is 4-0 and its starter has thrown for 433 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in three games, while the backup who replaced him won 9-3. That is why a 4-0 team is barely favored at a 1-3 team.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Shough hurt his left hand — the non-throwing one — during Monday night’s home loss to Atlanta, and played every one of the team’s 74 snaps with it, finishing 30-of-48 for 286 yards. On Wednesday the hand was wrapped at what was a walkthrough rather than a full practice, so what both clubs filed was an estimate: New Orleans estimated him limited, and the one outlet carrying a full participation is the opposing team’s website. No game-status designation exists yet; those land Friday. The important nuance is who has actually said he will play — Shough has, calling it "nothing different than anybody else is dealing with" and saying it will not limit him. No coach has. Kellen Moore’s only on-record injury line this week names nobody: a lot of players are "in a little bit of maintenance". That is the textbook condition for a fork rather than a number: the expectation is that he plays, and the expectation is not a designation. The specific worry is not throwing — it is taking snaps and securing the ball, which is a fumble risk, and it points straight at the matchup below.
Source: neworleanssaints.com — Vikings at Saints Week 5 Wednesday injury report
Vikings pressure · Saints pass protection
This is the matchup that decides it, and it is why the hand matters more than it sounds. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate at 67.3%, in pressure rate at 45.8% and in sack rate at 10.9% — and the blitz figure is a historical outlier, up from around half last season, with the second-placed team at 46%. They send close to five rushers a play. Dallas Turner is the engine with a league-leading pressure count. Against that, New Orleans is without its starting left tackle: Kelvin Banks Jr. had surgery on a severe high ankle sprain and has been on injured reserve since 23 September, and his replacement has allowed sixteen pressures on 118 pass-blocking snaps, which ranks last among qualifying tackles. Shough was pressured on roughly half his dropbacks against Atlanta alone. The genuine counter, and it is a real one: he has the second-lowest time in pocket in the league and New Orleans throws on about two-thirds of its snaps by design, getting the ball out fast, and he converts only about one pressured dropback in six into a sack. Minnesota’s aggression also leaks chunk plays.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Vikings–Saints Week 5 worksheet
Both sides of the ball
Minnesota is 4-0 on a nine-game regular-season winning streak and it has almost nothing to do with their offense. They allow 12.8 points a game, first in the league, and a league-low 1.11 points per drive, and they have conceded a touchdown on two of ten red-zone trips. They also average 4.4 yards a play, which is 32nd, and they have already played two touchdown-less games — the last team to start 4-0 with multiple touchdown-less games was the 1923 Chicago Cardinals. Over the last three weeks their special teams have outscored their own offense 42 to 7. New Orleans is the mirror: 26.3 points a game, tenth, and 32.0 allowed, dead last, having just given up 45 to Atlanta, while running the second-most plays in the league and passing on two-thirds of them. So the game asks one question. Minnesota’s offense has never had to be competent; against the worst scoring defense in football, does it finally clear twenty on its own, or does this stay another 15-10 field-position game that Minnesota wins anyway?
Source: ESPN — Minnesota at 4-0 with Kyler Murray and the Jefferson problem
Vikings pass offense · Saints coverage
New Orleans grades among the worst in the league against opposing lead receivers, which is the one clean route into this game for a Minnesota offense that has had none. The problem is availability, and the number that captures Minnesota’s season is this: Murray and Jefferson have been on the field together for eighteen snaps all year. Murray was concussed on the eleventh play of Week 1; Jefferson sprained an ankle seven plays into Murray’s Week 3 return. Jefferson practised limited on Wednesday for the first time since, said the ankle felt "real good", and is a New Orleans native and former LSU star returning to Louisiana — he said the plan is to play but "who knows? We’ll take it day by day". Against that, the head coach has hinted he could sit one more week with Minnesota’s bye to follow, the number two receiver is out of practice with a hamstring, and the club signed Odell Beckham Jr. to the practice squad on Wednesday. Minnesota’s own line is also short two starters, with a left guard headed for likely season-ending meniscus surgery and the left tackle in concussion protocol.
Source: Star Tribune — Jefferson’s ankle, Addison’s hamstring and the Week 5 report
Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: neworleanssaints.com — Vikings at Saints Week 5 Wednesday injury report · NBC Sports ProFootballTalk — Tyler Shough limited with a left hand injury (2026-10-07) · WHBL / Field Level Media — Shough dealing with a sore left hand, expects to play Sunday · Saints On SI — Shough limited, Kamara sidelined ahead of the Vikings · vikings.com — Vikings at Saints Week 5 injury report · Sharp Football Analysis — Vikings–Saints Week 5 worksheet · vikings.com — blitz rate and pounds of pressure leading the NFL · Pro Football Rumors — Kelvin Banks Jr. high ankle sprain, placed on IR · ESPN — Minnesota 4-0 with Kyler Murray, and the Jefferson problem · ESPN — Vikings LG Jackson likely out for the season, LT Darrisaw in concussion protocol · Star Tribune — Jefferson’s ankle, Addison’s hamstring and the Week 5 report · NFL.com — Kyler Murray 2026 statistics · neworleanssaints.com — Week 4 Falcons at Saints game notes · CBS Sports — Alvin Kamara tending to a back issue (2026-10-07) · NFL.com — Saints bench Spencer Rattler in the third quarter vs Tampa Bay (2025 sequence)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
MIN
+0.6
NO
-2.7
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Vikings
59%
fair value (books)
Saints
41%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 — the graded call is above.
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Vikings rate +0.6 (14th of 32) against -2.7 for the Saints (26th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 3.3-point gap between them, so the model lands at 51% for the Saints anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 15 games in Week 5, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Saints at 6.2 wins (favored in 5 of 17) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10) — 5.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Saints' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Vikings'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Vikings grade +2.4 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Saints offense at -0.9 (26th) — 3.4 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.4, 30th) meets the Saints defense (-1.5, 20th), a 0.9-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Vikings +0.5 (10th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).
On the calendar, the Vikings are on 7 days and the Saints are on 6 days. The Saints are 3 games into a home stand. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Vikings' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Vikings won 27-19 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Saints are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Saints at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 41% for the Saints. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Saints | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 44% 44c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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ShortBears Playoff Odds After the Caleb Williams Injury: Is the Kalshi Price a Steal?Sep 21, 2026Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Vikings by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Vikings won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Vikings by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Saints. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Saints (-2.7, 26th) and Vikings (+0.6, 14th) are only 3.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 41%/59%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Saints at 39c or below, or the Vikings at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Minnesota Vikings visit the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Saints at 6.2 wins (favored in 5) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Saints' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Vikings', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11MINNO has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Saints at 51% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on MIN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9
Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3
Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2
Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8
Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1
Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2
Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5
Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5
Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5
Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5
Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
49ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5
Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5
Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
