Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 20, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 0.5 in Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 15 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.8 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20BALPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 47c or below (or Ravens at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BAL
+1.3
PIT
-0.5
Ravens
48%
model win prob
Steelers
52%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC20BALPIThasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 47c or below, or the Ravens at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Ravens–Steelers is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Ravens rate +1.3 (12th of 32) against -0.5 for the Steelers (19th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.8-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Steelers anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 2nd-closest of the 16 games in Week 15, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Steelers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Ravens'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 0.3-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Steelers' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 26-24 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Steelers at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC20BALPIT is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Steelers at 47c or below, Ravens at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Ravens vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Ravens vs Steelers in Week 15?
Our power-rating model favors the Steelers by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Ravens. The Steelers rate 19th of 32 (-0.5) and the Ravens 12th (+1.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC20BALPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Steelers (-0.5, 19th) and Ravens (+1.3, 12th) are only 1.8 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Ravens vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC20BALPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 47c or below, or the Ravens at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Ravens?
Baltimore Ravens visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, December 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 15, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Ravens this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Ravens at 9.3 (favored in 10). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Ravens', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Steelers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Steelers at 52% over the Ravens sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Ravens–Steelers, Week 18 →
More Week 15 matchups
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