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Home/NFL/Week 2/Jaguars vs Broncos
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20

Final. Broncos' next game: Broncos vs Chiefs, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 2.5 (59% to win); the Broncos won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Broncos at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 2.5 (59% to win). The Broncos won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Broncos: +2c — we archived the Broncos at 56c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Sep 20. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Denver 20, Jacksonville 13: down 13-3 in the third, Bo Nix threw for 288 without a sack and the Broncos scored fourteen in the fourth

Jacksonville led 13-3 midway through the third quarter on a Bhayshul Tuten touchdown and two Cam Little field goals. Nix, 22 of 31 for 288 and never sacked, found Nate Adkins from seven to tie it with 11:47 left, and Jonah Coleman scored from three with 7:21 to play. Jaylen Waddle caught eight for 138. Trevor Lawrence threw for 189 without a touchdown, and the ledger’s one HIGH-confidence position of the week was on the home side.

Jaguars 13—Broncos 20

Final✓ Call hit

Three things were published on this game and they need three separate sentences. First, the chip: the stored probability had Denver at 58.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point margin — and Denver won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Denver by 0.7, the right team by the thinnest margin on the slate, and it leaned toward Jacksonville relative to the market by 1.8 points. Second, the ledger position, which won and needs the most care. 2026_02_JAX_DEN_moneyline is a HIGH position on Denver at ticker KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN-DEN, entered at 55c on Tuesday 2026-09-15 and closed at 56.5c for a cent and a half of CLV in our favour. Its 4.25-point edge was the anchored fair probability (58.75%, from the 2.5-point line the books held on Tuesday) against the Kalshi price of 54.5c. Read that carefully: the edge was a gap between the posted line and the exchange price, and the model’s own read leaned the other way. It is a real position, it was published at a stated price, and it won by seven points — and it should be credited to the anchor, not to the model, because the model’s lean was toward the team that lost. Third, the things that lost. The featured play on this page in lib/nfl/game-play.ts was Tuten under 50 rushing yards, NO at 53c, sized SMALL, and Tuten ran for 65; the board’s own Tuten under 39.5 at 58.5c lost with it. The Wednesday props article led with Lawrence two-plus passing touchdowns at 43c on a market no book posts, and the article’s own warning — a market nobody else quotes is a market where your own number is the only discipline — is the epitaph, because Lawrence threw none, and the board’s Lawrence over 0.5 at 78.5c and over 1.5 at 42.5c lost with it. Parker Washington under 4.5 and under 5.5 receptions lost on his seven. So the Jacksonville room went zero for five where it could be seen. The Denver room went four for none, and three of the four need an asterisk the ledger will not print: Nix under 1.5 passing touchdowns at 43c cleared on one, and J.K. Dobbins under 49.5, 59.5 and 69.5 rushing yards cleared on his 36 — but Dobbins left the game with a hamstring injury before Denver’s go-ahead drive, and Jonah Coleman took the closing carries. Those three unders were priced on a 44.9-yard projection for a full afternoon; they resolved our way for a reason the projection did not contain, and this page says so rather than banking them quietly. Visible calls four and five. Four Lawrence passing-yards unders sit in the ledger and went three and one on his 189; none count. Nine WATCH rows went five and four and are graded apart; Adam Trautman’s WATCH row does not appear in the box score.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Broncos −2.5 → Broncos −2.5
Total
44.5 → 45.5
Moneyline
JAX +120 / DEN −142 → JAX +120 / DEN −142

The spread did not move. The total rose 1 to 45.5; the game landed on 33.

How it happened

Q1

A flag wiped out a strip-sack on the opening drive, and a scoreless first quarter followed

Jacksonville caught a break on the game’s first drive when an illegal-contact flag on Riley Moss negated a Nik Bonitto strip-sack that Alex Singleton had recovered deep in Jaguars territory. Nobody scored in the quarter. Nix would finish the game without being sacked; Lawrence was sacked twice. Denver held the ball for 31:17 and outgained Jacksonville 392 to 268.

After one
Jaguars 0, Broncos 0
Sacks
of Nix 0 · of Lawrence 2 for 16
Total yards
DEN 392 · JAX 268

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Tuten from a yard, Lutz from 20, and Little from 44 as the half ended

Tuten scored from the one with 12:13 left in the half — he would finish with 65 yards on thirteen carries, fifteen and a half past the strike the featured play on this page was resting under. Waddle’s 49-yard catch took Denver to the 1 and the Broncos settled for Wil Lutz from 20; Nix was then intercepted in the end zone by Jourdan Lewis, and Little’s 44-yarder on the last play of the half made it 10-3 Jacksonville.

Halftime
Jaguars 10, Broncos 3
Tuten
13 car · 65 yds · 1 TD
Denver red zone
2/5

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Little from 23 for 13-3, Lutz from 45 for 13-6

Jacksonville stalled at the Denver 5 on the opening drive of the half and Little’s 23-yarder with 9:02 left gave it a 13-3 lead, its largest. Lutz cut it to 13-6 from 45 four minutes later. Washington caught seven for 98 on twelve targets for the Jaguars; Lawrence finished 17 of 29 for 189 with an interception and no touchdowns. The Jaguars had won nine straight regular-season games by a combined 177 points.

After three
Jaguars 13, Broncos 6
Lawrence
17/29 · 189 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
Washington
7 rec · 98 yds on 12 targets

ESPN — box score

Q4

Adkins from seven to tie it, a Little miss from 54, and Coleman — in for the injured Dobbins — from three to win it

Nix hit Adkins from seven with 11:47 to play for 13-13. Little was wide left from 54 on the next Jacksonville possession, and Coleman, on the field because Dobbins had left with a hamstring injury, scored the first touchdown of his career from three with 7:21 left. After a Jacksonville punt Denver ran out the final 4:41, Coleman carrying six times for 33 on the drive. Waddle, one catch for two yards in his Denver debut, caught eight for 138; Nix finished 22 of 31 for 288 with a touchdown and an interception.

Final
Broncos 20, Jaguars 13
Nix
22/31 · 288 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · 0 sacks
Waddle
8 rec · 138 yds (49 long)

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on 2026_02_JAX_DEN_moneyline and on every Week 2 prop row when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule. The position’s win above is derived from the final score; the P/L is the ledger’s number. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • Dobbins left with a hamstring injury; the AP recap says so without a time, and this recap does not know how many of his ten carries came before the injury or what his line would have been over a full game. The three Dobbins unders are graded as resolved and flagged as injury-assisted; the ledger will grade them as resolved.
  • Both the Tuesday weekly-edges row and the fair-value row now hold fair_margin 2.5 and p_home 58.8%, because the Monday 08:00 ET refresh re-anchored the fair-value row after the game was played; the page showed 60.5% on Sunday night. The position was priced off the Tuesday row.
  • The game-play card (Tuten under 50, NO at 53c, SMALL) and the article card (Lawrence 2+ passing TDs, YES at 43c) are graded on their stated prices; no fill is known to this page.
  • Adam Trautman (WATCH, receptions) does not appear in the box score; this recap did not confirm whether he was inactive.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (76,472) is ESPN’s figure.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price.
  • The stored fair-value row was re-anchored by the Monday 08:00 ET refresh, after this game was played, on a later pre-kickoff line capture; the number above is the row as it stands, not the number the page showed on Sunday night.

Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Jaylen Waddle’s quiet Denver debut flips into a 138-yard day in a Broncos’ 20-13 comeback over Jags · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line · NFL Week 2 props: best price, Kalshi vs. the books

The play

What a trader actually pays, not the mid — the ask to buy a YES, 100 minus the bid to buy a NO. A disagreement is not a guarantee.

Bhayshul Tuten under 50 rushing yards

Small

50+ rushing yards — NO

You pay
53¢
Book
47 / 50
Open interest
452
Our number
69.1% (+16.1pp)

Four books have this at a coin flip — 49.9% — and our sim has the under near 69%. That is a real gap on a three-cent book, and it is SMALL for a reason a reader should hear: four hundred and fifty contracts is the thinnest book on this page, and the only outside read is the books calling it even. Our sim thinks this game stays on the ground less than the market does; this row is that one opinion, sized like one.

Where to rest it: Small size, resting at 53 (100 minus the 47 bid). Four hundred contracts is the thinnest book on this card and it will not absorb a large order without moving.

4 books price this strike at 50.1% on our side. Price read 2026-09-19 00:36 UTC · KXNFLRSHYDS-26SEP20JACDEN-JACBTUTEN33-50

Lawrence's 4-TD opener meets a Denver offense that managed 176 yards — trenches and Surtain decide it.

Jacksonville (1-0) arrives at Empower Field at Mile High on a nine-game regular-season winning streak after a 34-10 dismantling of Cleveland in which Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 245 yards and four touchdowns ([jaguars.com](https://www.jaguars.com/news/wednesday-insider-that-s-who-he-is), [footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/cleveland-browns-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-2026091304)). Denver (0-1) is coming off a 31-10 loss at Kansas City in which Bo Nix threw for 131 yards, the offense totaled 176 yards and went 2-for-12 on third down, and Kenneth Walker ran for 173 ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-2026091401)). Denver's defense held up better than the box score suggests but generated only two sacks, both by Zach Allen — and both rosters look different than traders may remember, with Jaylen Waddle now in Denver and Jakobi Meyers in Jacksonville ([denverbroncos.com roster](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/players-roster/), [jaguars.com roster](https://www.jaguars.com/team/players-roster/)).

Jaguars pass protection · Broncos pass rush

Anton Harrison and a rookie left guard vs. Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto

Close to even

Jacksonville's official depth chart lists Anton Harrison at left tackle, 2026 third-round pick Emmanuel Pregnon at left guard, Robert Hainsey at center, Ezra Cleveland at right guard and Cole Van Lanen at right tackle, with 2025 starter Walker Little now the swing backup at both tackle spots ([jaguars.com depth chart](https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart/)). That line allowed exactly one sack in Week 1 and gave Lawrence enough time to hit nine different receivers. Denver counters with Zach Allen inside and Nik Bonitto and Jonah Elliss on the edges, but the group produced only two sacks at Kansas City — both Allen's — and no other Bronco registered one ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-2026091401)). Van Lanen has been limited all week with a knee issue, and Hainsey has spent practice drilling visual snap communication for the Mile High noise ([jaguars.com](https://www.jaguars.com/news/wednesday-insider-that-s-who-he-is)).

Jaguars Week 1 sacks allowed
1 (Mason Graham, Cleveland)
Broncos Week 1 sacks
2.0, all by Zach Allen
Jaguars starting LG
Emmanuel Pregnon, 2026 3rd round (pick 88)

Source: Jaguars official depth chart

Broncos pass protection · Jaguars pass rush

Denver's veteran five vs. Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen

Edge: Jaguars

Denver returns its full veteran line — Garett Bolles, Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, Quinn Meinerz, Mike McGlinchey — and none of them appear on this week's injury report ([denverbroncos.com depth chart](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart/), [injury report](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/)). It still surrendered four sacks for 16 yards at Kansas City while the offense produced 176 total yards. Jacksonville's edges got home five times against Cleveland: Josh Hines-Allen 1.5, Travon Walker 1.5, Ventrell Miller 1.0, Branson Combs 1.0, with Arik Armstead and DaVon Hamilton inside ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/cleveland-browns-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-2026091304)). This is the clearest mismatch on the card in either direction.

Broncos Week 1 sacks allowed
4 for 16 yards
Jaguars Week 1 team sacks
5.0 for 20 yards
Broncos Week 1 total yards
176

Source: Broncos at Chiefs Week 1 box score

Jaguars pass offense · Broncos secondary

Pat Surtain II's side vs. Brian Thomas Jr.'s shoulder

Edge: Broncos

Denver lists Pat Surtain II at left cornerback, Riley Moss at right corner and Ja'Quan McMillian in the nickel, with 2025 first-rounder Jahdae Barron backing up both Surtain and the slot ([denverbroncos.com depth chart](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart/)). Jacksonville's depth chart puts Brian Thomas Jr. at the X with Jakobi Meyers opposite and Parker Washington in the slot ([jaguars.com depth chart](https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart/)). Whether Surtain travels with Thomas or stays left is not confirmed in any reporting located for this game. Thomas (shoulder) and Meyers (thumb) have both been limited Wednesday and Thursday, and Washington — not Thomas — led Jacksonville in Week 1 with five catches for 83 yards ([injury report](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/), [footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/cleveland-browns-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-2026091304)).

Broncos CB alignment
Surtain LCB, Moss RCB, McMillian nickel
Brian Thomas Jr. Week 1
3 receptions, 40 yards
Thomas (shoulder) and Meyers (thumb)
limited Wednesday and Thursday

Source: Broncos official depth chart

Broncos pass offense · Jaguars secondary

Travis Hunter's corner snaps vs. a Denver receiver room that vanished in Week 1

Edge: Jaguars

Jacksonville lists Travis Hunter as a starting cornerback and as a receiver on the same depth chart, with Montaric Brown at the other corner and Jourdan Lewis in the nickel ([jaguars.com depth chart](https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart/)). Denver's three listed starting receivers are Marvin Mims Jr., Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton — and in Week 1 that trio combined for three catches and 13 yards, with Waddle catching one of three targets for two yards in his Denver debut ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-2026091401)). Tight end Evan Engram was Nix's most productive target at 4-43-1. Mims has not practiced Wednesday or Thursday with a foot injury, which would push Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant up ([injury report](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/)).

Sutton + Waddle + Mims, Week 1
3 catches, 13 yards combined
Jaylen Waddle Denver debut
1 catch / 3 targets / 2 yards
Marvin Mims Jr. (foot)
DNP Wednesday and Thursday

Source: Broncos at Chiefs Week 1 box score

Jaguars run offense · Broncos run defense

Bhayshul Tuten's committee vs. D.J. Jones and Denver's interior

Close to even

Jacksonville's backfield is a genuine committee: Bhayshul Tuten took 15 carries for 66 yards, Ameer Abdullah 4 for 32 and Chris Rodriguez Jr. 6 for 23 against Cleveland, with the team totaling 32 attempts for 126 yards — volume without much explosiveness ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/cleveland-browns-vs-jacksonville-jaguars-2026091304)). LeQuint Allen Jr. was active in Week 1 but does not appear in the box score, and he has been limited this week with a hip issue ([jaguars.com](https://www.jaguars.com/news/in-and-out-2026-week-1-allen-van-lanen-active-for-opener), [injury report](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/)). Denver's front of D.J. Jones, Zach Allen and Malcolm Roach was gashed by Kenneth Walker for 173 yards on 23 carries, including a 60-yard touchdown ([denverbroncos.com](https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/we-have-to-be-better-broncos-lament-mistakes-in-disappointing-season-opening-loss-to-chiefs)).

Jaguars Week 1 rushing
32 attempts, 126 yards (3.9 per carry)
Jaguars backfield split
Tuten 15, Rodriguez 6, Abdullah 4
Broncos Week 1 rushing yards allowed
220, Kenneth Walker 23-173

Source: Browns at Jaguars Week 1 box score

Broncos run offense · Jaguars run defense

A 15-carry Denver backfield vs. Campanile's front seven

Edge: Jaguars

Denver ran the ball 15 times all game at Kansas City: J.K. Dobbins 8 for 36, RJ Harvey 3 for 18, Bo Nix 3 for 2, Troy Franklin 1 for 5 ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-2026091401)). Some of that is script — Denver trailed most of the night and held the ball only 26:18 — but the committee never established itself. Harvey did not practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday with a hamstring, which would concentrate carries on Dobbins with Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie behind him ([injury report](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/injury-report/), [depth chart](https://www.denverbroncos.com/team/depth-chart/)). Jacksonville held Cleveland to 87 rushing yards on 22 attempts under defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, with Ventrell Miller posting 10 tackles.

Broncos Week 1 rushing
15 attempts, 61 yards by non-QBs
RJ Harvey (hamstring)
DNP Wednesday, limited Thursday
Jaguars Week 1 rushing yards allowed
87 on 22 attempts

Source: Broncos at Chiefs Week 1 box score

Quarterback play · both directions

Trevor Lawrence's cleanest game vs. Bo Nix under a first-year coordinator

Edge: Jaguars

Both starters are confirmed. Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville) went 18-of-23 for 245 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 150.6 rating, spreading the ball to nine receivers with touchdowns to four different players ([jaguars.com](https://www.jaguars.com/news/wednesday-insider-that-s-who-he-is)). Bo Nix (Denver), in his third season, went 17-of-28 for 131 yards with one touchdown and one interception on his opening series, for a 69.2 rating ([footballdb](https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-2026091401)). Nix is working with first-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb and said afterward the offense "could have put Webb in more favorable situations," while Sean Payton said Denver "didn't do a lot well at all in the game" ([denverbroncos.com](https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/next-day-notebook-broncos-aim-to-learn-from-week-1-loss-get-back-to-work-ahead-of-week-2)).

Trevor Lawrence Week 1
18/23, 245 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 150.6 rating
Bo Nix Week 1
17/28, 131 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 69.2 rating
Third-down conversions Week 1
Jaguars 5-of-10, Broncos 2-of-12

Source: Jaguars Wednesday Insider

What this read does not know

  • Official Friday game-status designations (Out / Doubtful / Questionable) had not been published for either team at the time of research. Everything reported here is Wednesday and Thursday practice participation only. Denver's own release states game statuses are finalized Friday ([denverbroncos.com](https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injury-report-pair-of-broncos-estimated-as-nonparticipants-ahead-of-week-2-game-vs-jaguars)).
  • Denver did not hold a Wednesday practice, so its Wednesday column is an estimation rather than observed participation, per the team's own note ([denverbroncos.com](https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injury-report-pair-of-broncos-estimated-as-nonparticipants-ahead-of-week-2-game-vs-jaguars)).
  • Whether Pat Surtain II shadows Brian Thomas Jr. or stays at left cornerback is not confirmed in any reporting located. The depth chart lists him at LCB; no coaching comment on a travel plan was found.
  • Travis Hunter's actual two-way snap split is unconfirmed. He is listed as a starting cornerback and as a receiver on the same official depth chart, and in Week 1 recorded one solo tackle, one reception for 8 yards and one carry for 3 yards — but no snap-count breakdown was located.
  • Whether Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) plays is genuinely open; he did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. If he sits, Denver's starting receiver alignment on the depth chart changes, and no confirmed replacement alignment was found.
  • RJ Harvey's status (hamstring, DNP Wednesday, limited Thursday) is unresolved, so the Denver backfield split is unconfirmed. Jonah Coleman and Tyler Badie are the listed depth behind Dobbins.
  • LeQuint Allen Jr.'s role is unclear. He was active in Week 1 but recorded no touches in the box score, and has been limited all week with a hip issue.
  • Cole Van Lanen (knee) has been limited both days; if he cannot go, Walker Little is listed as the backup at both tackle spots, but no confirmation of the fallback alignment was found.
  • No individual Kansas City sack attribution was available in the Week 1 box score, so which Denver linemen struggled in protection could not be pinned down player-by-player.
  • Pressure-rate, pass-block-win-rate and run-block-win-rate style advanced metrics for Week 1 2026 could not be retrieved; ESPN and Pro Football Reference pages were not accessible during research.
  • Denver's Week 1 defensive snap counts and nickel/dime usage rates were not located, so how often Jahdae Barron is on the field alongside Surtain, Moss and McMillian is unconfirmed.
  • Jacksonville's specific 2026 offseason acquisition dates and contract terms were not verified; Ourlads lists original draft provenance, not the year each player joined the Jaguars.

Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Jaguars official depth chart · Browns at Jaguars Week 1 box score · Broncos at Chiefs Week 1 box score · Broncos official depth chart · Broncos Week 2 injury report · Broncos Week 1 postgame · Jaguars Wednesday Insider · Jaguars official roster · Jaguars official coaching staff · Jaguars Week 2 injury report · Jaguars Week 1 inactives / actives · Jaguars Where to Watch Week 2 (series history, streak, broadcast)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY JAX +2.8
vs DEN -2.5
HOME DEN +1.8
Fair (books) · DEN 59% home win prob
Kalshi · DEN — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Denver, CO PASS — no position

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Jaguars

41%

fair value (books)

Broncos

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

35%

Madden 27

65%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Jaguars at Broncos How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jaguars at BroncosSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
    Go Pro · $150/yr, $111 your first year →

    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Jaguars at Broncos Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Jaguars–Broncos spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Jaguars vs Broncos power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Jacksonville Jaguars+2.85thPlayoff
    Denver Broncos+1.89thPlayoff

    Jaguars and Broncos season outlook

    JAXDEN
    Average wins10.510.9
    Make playoffs80%79%
    Win division73%50%
    Win Super Bowl8.0%6.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Jaguars vs Broncos — player pages

    All players →

    Jaylen Waddle

    WR

    Parker Washington

    WR

    Bhayshul Tuten

    RB

    Brian Thomas Jr.

    WR

    RJ Harvey

    RB

    Trevor Lawrence

    QB

    Courtland Sutton

    WR

    Bo Nix

    QB

    Jakobi Meyers

    WR

    J.K. Dobbins

    RB

    Chris Rodriguez Jr.

    RB

    Brenton Strange

    TE

    Travis Hunter

    WR

    Jonah Coleman

    RB

    Nate Adkins

    JAC Jaguars D/ST

    Josh Cameron

    DEN Broncos D/ST

    Evan Engram

    Marvin Mims Jr.

    Troy Franklin

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Jaguars–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 — the graded call is above.

    The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Jaguars rate +2.8 (5th of 32) against +1.8 for the Broncos (9th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.0-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Broncos anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 16 games in Week 2, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.9 projected wins for the Broncos against 10.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 13 and 12 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 8th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.2 (8th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +1.2 (5th) — 1.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.2, 11th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.8, 2nd in the league, against +0.3 (21st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Jaguars' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 34-20 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Broncos at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN
    Market-implied (Broncos)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Broncos)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Broncos. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Jaguars vs Broncos trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBroncosTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig58% 58cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

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    Watch the breakdown: Jaguars vs Broncos

    Will the Broncos Win 11 Games? NFL Win Total Predictions on Kalshi — video thumbnail3:52Will the Broncos Win 11 Games? NFL Win Total Predictions on KalshiJul 18, 2026FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More! — video thumbnail37:40FTF E12: 2026 Expert NFL Win Total Predictions: Broncos, Jags and More!Jul 15, 2026

    Jaguars vs Broncos — frequently asked

    Who won Jaguars vs Broncos in Week 2?

    Jacksonville Jaguars 13, Denver Broncos 20 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Broncos by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Broncos won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Jaguars vs Broncos before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Broncos by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Jaguars. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Broncos (+1.8, 9th) and Jaguars (+2.8, 5th) are only 1.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Broncos?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 57c or below, or the Jaguars at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Broncos host the Jaguars?

    Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.

    What does the model project for the Broncos and Jaguars this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 10.9 wins (favored in 13) and the Jaguars at 10.5 (favored in 12). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jaguars', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Broncos?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Broncos?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Broncos at 52% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

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    Next up for each team

    Jaguars: Week 3 vs PatriotsModel line →Broncos: Week 3 vs RamsModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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