Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 1 in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 2 2026 — 53% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.5 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 48c or below (or Jaguars at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
JAX
+2.7
DEN
+1.2
Jaguars
47%
model win prob
Broncos
53%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 48c or below, or the Jaguars at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Jaguars–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Jaguars rate +2.7 (6th of 32) against +1.2 for the Broncos (13th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.5-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Broncos anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 16 games in Week 2, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.0 projected wins for the Broncos against 9.5 for the Jaguars, favored in 9 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Jaguars' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 34-20 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Broncos at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 48c or below, Jaguars at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Broncos in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Jaguars. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Jaguars 6th (+2.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Broncos (+1.2, 13th) and Jaguars (+2.7, 6th) are only 1.5 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 48c or below, or the Jaguars at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9) and the Jaguars at 9.5 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Broncos?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Broncos at 53% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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