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Home/NFL/Week 2/Jaguars vs Broncos
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Quick Answer

As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 55% for the Broncos in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Broncos by 0.5 (59% to win) — a 4.2pp gap. Value side: the Broncos. The model's own line is Broncos by 0.7 against a market line of Broncos by 2.5 — a 1.8-point lean toward the Jaguars, graded separately from any position.

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Kickoff board

Week 2 · 2026-09-15

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Broncos moneylineModel 59% vs market 55% on DEN.Market-anchored fair value: DEN 59% (+4.4pp)54.5c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

The trench read: what decides Jaguars–Broncos at Mile High

The market likes the host. Our power ratings like the visitor, and the whole of that disagreement sits in two places — an offense that scored a franchise record last season, and a special-teams unit that owns the two longest field goals in NFL history. What sits on the other side of the ledger is a Denver front that put up 68 sacks and a rookie left guard in Jacksonville who has to survive it.

Trenches · Denver pass rush

Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen vs a rookie left guard

Edge: Broncos

Denver produced 68 sacks last season — the fifth-highest single-season total in league history — and the striking part is how much of it came without extra rushers. Their four-man rush was the most effective in football. Jacksonville answers at left guard with Emmanuel Pregnon, a third-round rookie who won the job in camp and is the only rookie in the Jaguars’ opening starting lineup. Allen works the interior, Bonitto comes off the edge behind him, and the rookie will see both. Watch the first six or seven Jacksonville dropbacks: if Trevor Lawrence is already sliding off his spot, this is why.

Broncos sacks, 2025
68 — 5th-most in a season, all time
Four-man rush success rate
40% — 1st in NFL
Zach Allen pressures, 2025
65 — tied for most among interior linemen

Source: Sports Info Solutions — how great is the Broncos pass rush

Coverage · Denver boundary

Pat Surtain II vs Brian Thomas Jr.

Edge: Broncos

Denver plays a lot of man coverage and Surtain is the reason it holds up — 37 receptions allowed into his coverage across an entire season is a genuinely absurd number. Thomas is the Jacksonville receiver with the size and speed to test it and he is also coming off a year he would like back: 48 catches on 91 targets for 707 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games, dragged down by a high ankle sprain and a shoulder problem. The Jaguars’ counter is that they no longer need him to be the entire passing game, because Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington took real volume down the stretch. Watch whether Denver travels Surtain with Thomas or simply leaves him on a side and dares Jacksonville to look elsewhere.

Turnovers · the real swing

Anthony Campanile’s ball hawks vs Bo Nix

Edge: Jaguars

This is the strongest reason to take Jacksonville seriously in this building. Campanile inherited a defense that forced nine turnovers in all of 2024 and got 31 out of it in his first season, and the Jaguars turned that into more points off takeaways than anybody in the league. Nix threw 28 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last season and gave the ball away twice against this same defense in December while throwing for a career-best 353 yards. Yardage was never the problem in that game — the giveaways were. Note how that pressure arrives: Josh Hines-Allen broke the franchise career sack record last season and still led Jacksonville with only eight sacks, because this is a scheme rush, not a one-man rush.

Jaguars takeaways, 2025
31 — 2nd in NFL, up from 9 in 2024
Passes defensed
107 — led the NFL, franchise record
Points off takeaways
110 — led the NFL

Source: Jaguars.com — 10 statistics that shaped the 2025 season

Run game · Denver on the ground

Quinn Meinerz and J.K. Dobbins vs the league’s best run defense

Close to even

Strength against strength, and the most watchable thing on the field. Denver returns all five starters from a line widely rated the best in football last season, with Meinerz its standout and Ben Powers, the weakest link, still a starter most places. Jacksonville allowed 85.6 rushing yards a game last season, first in the league, and no opposing back cleared 75 yards in a single game against them all year. Dobbins opens on top of Denver’s depth chart with R.J. Harvey behind him, and Harvey’s 38-yard touchdown was the one stretch Denver genuinely controlled the December meeting. Sean Payton’s offense is a different animal when the run works, so this decides whether Denver gets to play the game it wants.

Jaguars rushing yards allowed per game, 2025
85.6 — 1st in NFL
Opposing 75-yard rushers allowed, all season
0
Franchise-record points scored, 2025
474 — 6th in NFL

Source: Jaguars.com — 10 statistics that shaped the 2025 season

Coverage · the two pieces with no shared tape

Travis Hunter vs Jaylen Waddle

Close to even

Two players who barely exist in the tape that shaped everything else on this page. Denver sent a first (No. 30), a third and a fourth to Miami for Waddle, getting a fourth back, and finally handed Nix a speed threat opposite Courtland Sutton. Hunter missed the final ten games of his rookie year with a knee injury — including the December win in this stadium — and Liam Coen has said the second-year plan tilts toward cornerback first and receiver second without committing to a split. Watch where Hunter lines up on Denver’s opening possession; it tells you more about Jacksonville’s season than anything else that happens in the first quarter.

Waddle trade cost to Denver
2026 1st (No. 30), 3rd and 4th; Miami’s 4th back
Waddle career with Miami
373 rec · 5039 yds · 26 TD in 78 games

Source: NFL.com — Dolphins trade Waddle to Broncos

Special teams

Cam Little and Parker Washington vs the thin air

Edge: Jaguars

This is the quietest edge on the page and it is not small. Little owns the two longest field goals in NFL history — a 68-yarder against Las Vegas and a 67-yarder against Tennessee, both last season — and Washington took two punts to the house. Our power ratings carry Jacksonville’s special-teams component at roughly five times Denver’s, and that alone is about half the reason the Jaguars rate ahead of Denver overall. Denver is at 5280 feet, where the ball carries for both kickers; that raises the ceiling on the leg that is already better and widens the range of what counts as a scoring position.

Cam Little, Week 9 2025
68-yard field goal — longest in NFL history
Parker Washington punt-return TDs, 2025
2 — 73 and 87 yards

Source: NFL.com — Cam Little sets the field-goal record

Venue · recent history

The last time these two played, in this building

Close to even

On December 21 Jacksonville walked into Mile High and won 34-20, ending an 11-game Denver winning streak and a 12-game home winning streak that had run since October 2024. Lawrence threw for 279 and three scores, Washington had 145 receiving yards, and Jacksonville did not turn the ball over once — while Denver still got to Lawrence five times. The honest read is not that Jacksonville owns this stadium. It is that on the one occasion these rosters met at altitude, the altitude and the crowd were not what decided it.

Week 16, 2025 at Denver
Jaguars 34, Broncos 20
Denver home winning streak snapped
12 games, unbeaten since Oct 13 2024
Turnovers in that game
Denver 2, Jacksonville 0

Source: ESPN — Jaguars 34, Broncos 20 recap

Model vs market

What our ratings see that the market does not

Edge: Jaguars

Our published power ratings, through week 1 of 2026, put Jacksonville sixth in the league and Denver twelfth — the visitor rated materially higher than the side the market prefers. The split is worth naming precisely: Jacksonville is ahead on offense by a bit over a point and on special teams by three quarters of a point, and Denver is the better side on defense by about four tenths. That maps cleanly onto what these teams actually were last season. Jacksonville scored a franchise-record 474 points, sixth in the league; Denver won 14 games with a defense that allowed 18.5 a game, fourth, behind an offense that averaged 23.2, fifteenth. The market is siding with the host and the better defense, the ratings with the better offense, and neither has seen a 2026 snap.

PWR, week 1 2026
JAX +2.63 (6th) · DEN +1.20 (12th)
Offensive component
JAX +1.69 · DEN +0.62
Defensive component
DEN +0.39 · JAX 0.00

Source: PredictionMarketsPicks — NFL power ratings

What this read does not know

  • Neither team has played a 2026 snap as of this writing. Jacksonville hosts Cleveland on September 13 and Denver is at Kansas City on Monday September 14 — every number above is 2025 tape or an offseason move, and none of it reflects 2026 form.
  • There is no Week 2 injury report yet. The first one lands Wednesday September 16, and a single practice designation on Pregnon, Cole Van Lanen, Surtain or Bonitto rewrites the trench units above.
  • Travis Hunter’s snap split is genuinely undecided. Coen has said cornerback first and receiver second without putting a number on it, and Hunter has seven career NFL games — the knee injury cost him the last ten of his rookie season, so there is close to nothing to grade either way.
  • Denver lost John Franklin-Myers off that 68-sack front — 7.5 sacks and 45 pressures, third-most among interior linemen. Nobody has seen what the interior rush looks like without him, and every Denver pass-rush number quoted here includes him.
  • Jacksonville’s right tackle spot is a live question. Cole Van Lanen is the listed starter but was working back from injury through camp, and Walker Little is the swing tackle behind him. A change there matters more against Bonitto than it would most weeks.
  • Bhayshul Tuten as a lead back is unproven. Travis Etienne left for New Orleans in free agency and Tuten has never carried a starter’s workload, with Chris Rodriguez Jr. listed alongside him as a co-starter.
  • Altitude is real physiology and nobody can size it cleanly for one football game. Denver’s home record over the past decade is among the league’s best; Jacksonville also won here nine months ago. Both are true and neither settles it, so this read does not price it.
  • Sources disagree on how Denver actually generates pressure. A mid-season charting piece had them at a 27.3% blitz rate with 63% man coverage; a full-season review put the blitz rate at 32%, third in the league. We have quoted both rather than averaging them, and the man-coverage figure in the Surtain unit comes from the in-season sample.
  • No passing or receiving projection appears anywhere in this read. Those legs of our Week 1 model run are under a publication block because the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile.

Reporting verified 2026-09-10. Further sources: Sports Info Solutions — how great is the Broncos pass rush · ESPN — what to expect from Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence in 2026 · Jaguars.com — 10 statistics that shaped the 2025 season · Jaguars.com — first regular-season depth chart, 2026 · DenverBroncos.com — initial unofficial 2026 depth chart · ESPN — Jaguars 34, Broncos 20 recap (Dec 21 2025) · Match Quarters — how the Broncos generate pressure without blitzing · NFL.com — Dolphins trade Jaylen Waddle to Denver · NFL.com — Cam Little sets the NFL field-goal record · Yahoo Sports — early preview of Week 2 at Denver · Action News Jax — Campanile’s calculated blitz philosophy

PMP · WK 2 POSITION · HIGH
Sun, Sep 20
AWAY JAX +2.6
vs DEN -0.5
HOME DEN +1.2
Model · DEN 59% home win prob
Kalshi · DEN 55¢ yes mid
Edge +4.2pp model − market
📍 Denver, CO BUY DEN
Model says Broncos at 55c or better — 4.2pp above the market.Take the position on Kalshi →

Jaguars

41%

model win prob

Broncos

59%

model win prob

Market-anchored fair value: DEN 59% (+4.4pp) Combo Edge Builder →

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

35%

Madden 27

65%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Jaguars at Broncos

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jaguars at BroncosSpreadSHAPEBuy NO · Broncos +6.5 →
0255075100%Broncos +6.5Broncos +14.5Broncos +3.5Broncos −3.5Broncos −20.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
🔒
at Broncos +6.5
Market
77%
Kalshi · P(YES) at Broncos +6.5
PMP Model
🔒
display-calibrated

We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. The gap changes sign near -0.5.

RungMarketModelGap
4 more rungsBroncos +14.5 → Broncos +9.5 · outside our published band, market only
Broncos +14.5🔒outside range—NO →
Broncos +13.5🔒outside range—NO →
Broncos +10.5🔒outside range—NO →
Broncos +9.5🔒outside range—NO →
Broncos +7.5🔒outside range—NO →
Broncos +6.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos +5.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos +4.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos +3.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos +2.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos +1.5🔒🔒🔒NO →
Broncos −0.5—🔒—not listed
Broncos −1.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −2.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −3.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −4.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −5.5🔒——YES →
Broncos −6.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −7.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Broncos −9.5🔒outside range—YES →
6 more rungsBroncos −10.5 → Broncos −20.5 · outside our published band, market only
Broncos −10.5🔒outside range—YES →
Broncos −13.5🔒outside range—YES →
Broncos −14.5🔒outside range—YES →
Broncos −16.5🔒——YES →
Broncos −17.5🔒——YES →
Broncos −20.5🔒——YES →

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
Jacksonville Jaguars+2.66thPlayoff
Denver Broncos+1.212thPlayoff

Season outlook

JAXDEN
Average wins9.79.0
Make playoffs62%55%
Win division41%39%
Win Super Bowl5.2%3.9%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Jaguars–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers

The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Jaguars rate +2.6 (6th of 32) against +1.2 for the Broncos (12th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 59% for the Broncos anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 16 games in Week 2, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.1 projected wins for the Broncos against 9.4 for the Jaguars, favored in 9 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Jaguars'.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Jaguars' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 34-20 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Broncos at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN contract implies 55% for the Broncos against our 59% — a 4.2-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Broncos as the value side at 55c.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN
Market-implied (Broncos)
55c · 55%
Our model (Broncos)
59%
Model vs market
+4.2pp

Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 55c on the Broncos is an implied 55% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 59%, a 4.2pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Jaguars vs Broncos trades

2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueBroncosTrade
Kalshi55% 55cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig54% 54cOpen Novig →
Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract55% 55cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract55% 55cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Jaguars vs Broncos — frequently asked

Who is favored in Jaguars vs Broncos in Week 2?

Our power-rating model picks the Broncos by 0.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Jaguars, for a projected score of Broncos 24, Jaguars 23 on a ratings-implied 45.9-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN market implies 55% for the Broncos — a 4.2pp gap versus the model.

Why does the model call this a toss-up?

Because the Broncos (+1.2, 12th) and Jaguars (+2.6, 6th) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Broncos?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Broncos YES is quoted around 55c against our 59% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Broncos host the Jaguars?

Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.

What does the model project for the Broncos and Jaguars this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Jaguars at 9.4 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Broncos?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. The Broncos YES contract sits around 55c, which is an implied 55% — against our model's 59%. That is a 4.2pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Can you trade Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 59% on a team like the Broncos?

57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Broncos at 59% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Is Broncos moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 55%, an edge of +4.2 points. Model 59% vs market 55% on DEN. We pass — no position.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Broncos hub →Jaguars hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 2 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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More Week 2 matchups

Lions at BillsBills −4
Panthers at FalconsFalcons −4
Saints at RavensRavens −5.5
Vikings at BearsBears −6
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Packers at JetsPackers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersBuccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansEagles −3
Raiders at ChargersChargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsSeahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysCowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ers49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsChiefs −2.5
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Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

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