Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 58% for the Broncos in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Broncos by 1 (54% to win) — a 4.4pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-01No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
JAX
+2.6
DEN
+1.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Jaguars
46%
model win prob
Broncos
54%
model win prob
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35%
Madden 27
65%
Madden 27
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Jaguars–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Jaguars rate +2.6 (6th of 32) against +1.2 for the Broncos (12th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 54% for the Broncos anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 1st-closest of the 16 games in Week 2, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.1 projected wins for the Broncos against 9.4 for the Jaguars, favored in 9 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Jaguars'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.6-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Jaguars' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 34-20 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Broncos at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN contract implies 58% for the Broncos against our 54% — a 4.4-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- 58c · 58%
- Our model (Broncos)
- 54%
- Model vs market
- -4.4pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 58c on the Broncos is an implied 58% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 54%, a 4.4pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Jaguars vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% 58c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 58% 58c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 58% 58c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jaguars vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jaguars vs Broncos in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 1 points, a 54% win probability over the Jaguars. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN market implies 58% for the Broncos — a 4.4pp agreement with the model.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Broncos (+1.2, 12th) and Jaguars (+2.6, 6th) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 54%/46%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Jaguars vs Broncos?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Broncos YES is quoted around 58c against our 54% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Jaguars?
Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Jaguars this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Jaguars at 9.4 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Jaguars', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jaguars vs Broncos?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. The Broncos YES contract sits around 58c, which is an implied 58% — against our model's 54%. That is a 4.4pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Jaguars vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20JACDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Broncos?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Broncos at 54% over the Jaguars sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Jaguars moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 46% against a market price implying 42%, an edge of +4.4 points. Model 46% vs market 42% on JAX. We pass — no position.
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