Public Track Record

Every algorithmic engine signal and every Play of the Day we've ever published, with outcomes. No cherry-picking, no after-the-fact edits — losing engines included. This is the full record.

See our methodology calibration → — 7,685 historical predictions, 2 years, three commodities, predicted vs realized hit rate per decile.

What this record proves

Most prediction-market sites show you the winners and quietly bury the rest. We do the opposite. Every engine signal on this page — Bitcoin Edge, Gold Edge, Silver Edge, Oil Edge, Weather Edge, Oracle Gas Edge — and every Play of the Day is timestamped to our database before the Kalshi market resolves, then graded automatically against the actual settlement. Nothing gets edited after the outcome is known. The engines that lose money stay on the board, in the same table as the ones that win.

That's the whole point of a public track record: it only means something if the losers are in it. Win rate on its own is easy to fake — take enough heavy favorites and you can post 80% while bleeding money. So we publish per-contract P/L and a Brier calibration score next to every win rate, across 7,685 historical predictions and two years of live signals. Read the number, check the calibration, then decide for yourself whether the edge is real.

Algorithmic Engine Record

Our edge engines have settled 3,140 timestamped signals against live Kalshi market resolutions — 1,501 winners, 1,456 losers, a combined 51% win rate, and +$103.06 net buying one contract per signal (+3.3¢ average per contract). Data as of 2026-09-02, refreshed daily.

Every signal is recorded before settlement and graded automatically against the market resolution. Net P/L is the sum across every settled signal, buying a flat 1 contract each time; Avg / contract is that sum divided by the signal count. Win rate excludes pushes. Brier score measures calibration (lower is better; 0.25 = coin-flip guessing). Negative engines stay published — that's the point. Plays of the Day are hand-picked, not algorithmic, so they are recorded in their own section below rather than in this table. A Paused engine has published no new signal in over 10 days: its record still counts in full, but anything settling now is an earlier position resolving rather than a new one.

Play of the Day Record

Net P/L is the sum across every settled pick, buying a flat 1 contract each time. Average per settled pick: +0.6¢. No-play days excluded (15 total). Win rate excludes pushes. Each pick's P/L is dollars per 1 contract: a YES bought at X¢ pays (1 − X/100) on a win and −X/100 on a loss.

Full History

Open Plays

Picks that haven't settled yet. Listed for transparency — they'll move into Full History above the moment the market resolves.

Frequently Asked Questions