Public Track Record
Every algorithmic engine signal and every Play of the Day we've ever published, with outcomes. No cherry-picking, no after-the-fact edits — losing engines included. This is the full record.
See our methodology calibration → — 7,685 historical predictions, 2 years, three commodities, predicted vs realized hit rate per decile.
What this record proves
Most prediction-market sites show you the winners and quietly bury the rest. We do the opposite. Every engine signal on this page — Bitcoin Edge, Gold Edge, Silver Edge, Oil Edge, Weather Edge, Oracle Gas Edge — and every Play of the Day is timestamped to our database before the Kalshi market resolves, then graded automatically against the actual settlement. Nothing gets edited after the outcome is known. The engines that lose money stay on the board, in the same table as the ones that win.
That's the whole point of a public track record: it only means something if the losers are in it. Win rate on its own is easy to fake — take enough heavy favorites and you can post 80% while bleeding money. So we publish per-contract P/L and a Brier calibration score next to every win rate, across 7,685 historical predictions and two years of live signals. Read the number, check the calibration, then decide for yourself whether the edge is real.
Algorithmic Engine Record
Our edge engines have settled 2,235 timestamped signals against live Kalshi market resolutions — 1,148 winners, 904 losers, a combined 56% win rate, and +$113.65 P/L per single contract. Data as of 2026-07-19, refreshed daily.
| Engine | Settled | Win rate | P/L (per contract) | Avg Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Edge | 674 | 64% | +$45.72 | 0.1231 |
| Gold Edge | 397 | 65% | +$35.94 | 0.1560 |
| Oil Edge | 369 | 49% | +$2.35 | 0.1842 |
| Silver Edge | 337 | 64% | +$46.44 | 0.1447 |
| mispricing-scanner | 231 | 2% | −$3.25 | 0.1412 |
| Weather Edge | 157 | 24% | +$2.05 | 0.2691 |
| Play of the Day | 45 | 51% | +$2.26 | 0.2736 |
| Oracle Gas Edge | 25 | 8% | −$17.86 | 0.3877 |
Every signal is recorded before settlement and graded automatically against the market resolution. Win rate excludes pushes. Brier score measures calibration (lower is better; 0.25 = coin-flip guessing). Negative engines stay published — that's the point.
Play of the Day Record
46
Total settled
23
Wins
23
Losses
0
Pushes
50%
Win rate
+$1.90
P/L
Average P/L per settled pick: +$0.04. No-play days excluded (15 total). Win rate excludes pushes. P/L is dollars per 1 contract: a YES bought at X¢ pays (1 − X/100) on a win and −X/100 on a loss.
How to read this
- Every Play of the Day is published before markets settle. The outcome you see here is what actually happened.
- P/L is dollars per 1 contract. A YES at 36¢ pays +$0.64 on a win and −$0.36 on a loss. A YES at 20¢ pays +$0.80 or −$0.20. Contracts resolve at $1 or $0.
- Pushes (void / cancelled contracts) are excluded from win rate but count against sample size.
- No-play days — when no market met the confidence threshold — are not counted. We don't force picks to pad a streak.
Full History
| Date | Platform | Market | Entry | Result | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Kalshi | Jude Bellingham to score vs Argentina — World Cup SemifinalYES | 27¢ | loss | −$0.27 | |
| 2026-07-14 | Kalshi | Spain to Win in Regulation — France vs. Spain (World Cup Semifinal)YES | 30¢ | win | +$0.70 | |
| 2026-07-11 | Kalshi | England to Win in Regulation — Norway vs. England (World Cup Quarterfinal)YES | 52¢ | loss | −$0.52 | |
| 2026-07-10 | Kalshi | Spain vs. Belgium — Over 2.5 GoalsYES | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-07-09 | Kalshi | France to Win in Regulation — France vs. Morocco (World Cup Quarterfinal)YES | 62¢ | win | +$0.38 | |
| 2026-07-07 | Kalshi | Lionel Messi 1+ Goals — Argentina vs. Egypt (World Cup Round of 16)YES | 61¢ | win | +$0.39 | |
| 2026-07-06 | Kalshi | USA to win in regulation — USA vs. Belgium (World Cup Round of 16)YES | 38¢ | loss | −$0.38 | |
| 2026-07-04 | Kalshi | Erling Haaland 1+ Goals — Brazil vs. Norway (World Cup Round of 16)YES | 47¢ | win | +$0.53 | |
| 2026-06-29 | Kalshi | Brazil vs. Japan — Over 2.5 GoalsYES | 61¢ | win | +$0.39 | |
| 2026-06-28 | DraftKings | Jonathan David Anytime Goalscorer — Canada vs. South AfricaYES | 36¢ | loss | −$0.36 | |
| 2026-06-25 | Kalshi | Japan vs. Sweden — Over 2.5 GoalsYES | 52¢ | loss | −$0.52 | |
| 2026-06-24 | Kalshi | Canada to win World Cup 2026 Group BYES | 58¢ | loss | −$0.58 | |
| 2026-06-23 | Kalshi | England vs. Ghana — Harry Kane Anytime GoalscorerYES | 61¢ | loss | −$0.61 | |
| 2026-06-18 | Kalshi | Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina — Under 2.5 GoalsNO | 51¢ | loss | −$0.51 | |
| 2026-06-17 | Kalshi | Türkiye to Advance — World Cup Group DYES | 51¢ | loss | −$0.51 | |
| 2026-06-16 | Kalshi | France vs. Senegal — Kylian Mbappé Anytime GoalscorerYES | 46¢ | win | +$0.54 | |
| 2026-06-15 | Kalshi | Spain vs. Cape Verde — Mikel Oyarzabal Anytime ScorerYES | 61¢ | loss | −$0.61 | |
| 2026-06-14 | DraftKings | Germany vs. Curaçao — Over 4.5 GoalsYES | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-06-13 | Kalshi | Brazil vs. Morocco — Both Teams To ScoreYES | 55¢ | win | +$0.45 | |
| 2026-06-10 | Kalshi | Son Heung-min to Lead South Korea in World Cup GoalsYES | 36¢ | loss | −$0.36 | |
| 2026-06-08 | Kalshi | Mexico vs. South Africa: Under 2.5 Total GoalsYES | 56¢ | win | +$0.44 | |
| 2026-06-04 | Kalshi | Sarah Jessica Parker to say "President" at Northwestern CommencementYES | 54¢ | win | +$0.46 | |
| 2026-06-03 | Kalshi | New York Knicks to win Game 1 (vs. San Antonio Spurs)YES | 37¢ | win | +$0.63 | |
| 2026-06-02 | Kalshi | Bitcoin above $69,250 at 5 PM ET?NO | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-05-28 | Kalshi | A.J. Brown's Next Team — New EnglandYES | 82¢ | win | +$0.18 | |
| 2026-05-25 | Kalshi | Liberation — Best Play (2026 Tony Awards)YES | 74¢ | win | +$0.26 | |
| 2026-05-20 | Kalshi | Victor Wembanyama — 2026 NBA Finals MVPYES | 40¢ | loss | −$0.40 | |
| 2026-05-15 | Kalshi | Karl-Anthony Towns — Eastern Conference Finals MVPYES | 12¢ | loss | −$0.12 | |
| 2026-05-14 | Kalshi | Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026?YES | 38¢ | loss | −$0.38 | |
| 2026-05-13 | Kalshi | LA High Temperature > 69°F on 5/13/26YES | 24¢ | win | +$0.76 | |
| 2026-05-06 | Kalshi | Spotify Global #1 in May — Michael JacksonNO | 38¢ | loss | −$0.38 | |
| 2026-04-30 | Kalshi | Silver ≥ $71.99 Friday Close — Silver Edge Flags 14pp MispricingYES | 55¢ | win | +$0.45 | |
| 2026-04-28 | Kalshi | WTI Crude Oil Closes Above $100 — April 28YES | 39¢ | loss | −$0.39 | |
| 2026-04-26 | Polymarket | Cooper Flagg — NBA Rookie of the YearYES | 79¢ | win | +$0.21 | |
| 2026-04-25 | Kalshi | Will Trump say "Epstein" at the WHCD?YES | 7¢ | loss | −$0.07 | |
| 2026-04-24 | Kalshi | San Antonio Spurs to win 2026 NBA ChampionshipYES | 12¢ | loss | −$0.12 | |
| 2026-04-23 | Kalshi | Caleb Banks to be drafted in the 1st roundYES | 26¢ | win | +$0.74 | |
| 2026-04-22 | Kalshi | 2026 NFL Draft #4 Overall Pick — Jeremiyah Love (Titans)YES | 36¢ | loss | −$0.36 | |
| 2026-04-20 | Kalshi | Will Central Cee be featured on Drake's ICEMAN album?YES | 67¢ | loss | −$0.67 | |
| 2026-04-16 | Kalshi | Dandelion: First-Week Pure Album Sales Over 40,000YES | 31¢ | loss | −$0.31 | |
| 2026-04-15 | Polymarket | Will Cirie Fields win Survivor 50?YES | 16¢ | loss | −$0.16 | |
| 2026-04-12 | Kalshi | Rory McIlroy to Win the 2026 MastersYES | 35¢ | win | +$0.65 | |
| 2026-04-08 | Kalshi | Another Trump Cabinet Change This Month?YES | 61¢ | win | +$0.39 | |
| 2026-04-02 | Kalshi | Will Pam Bondi leave as Attorney General?YES | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-04-01 | Kalshi | Oklahoma vs Colorado — Gene Clemons Play of the DayYES | 51¢ | win | +$0.49 | |
| 2026-03-31 | Kalshi | Where will the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occur?YES | 47¢ | loss | −$0.47 |
Open Plays
Picks that haven't settled yet. Listed for transparency — they'll move into Full History above the moment the market resolves.
| Date | Platform | Market | Entry | Status | Resolves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Kalshi | Spain vs. Argentina — Over 2.5 Goals in Regulation (World Cup Final)YES | 42¢ | Live | 2026-07-19 | |
| 2026-05-17 | Kalshi | Drake — Top Artist on Spotify (USA) 2026YES | 73¢ | Live | Late 2026 (Spotify Wrapped) | |
| 2026-05-12 | Kalshi | Pandemic in 2026 — Media-Frenzy Momentum (Kalshi KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26)YES | 15¢ | Live | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| 2026-04-27 | Kalshi | Carnell Tate to win 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the YearYES | 17¢ | Live | 2027-02-07 | |
| 2026-04-17 | Kalshi | 2028 Democratic Primary Winner — Andy BeshearYES | 4¢ | Live | 2028-11-07 | |
| 2026-04-14 | Kalshi | Aaron Taylor-Johnson to Be the Next James BondYES | 22¢ | Live | 2026 | |
| 2026-04-09 | Kalshi | Harry Kane — World Cup 2026 Golden Boot WinnerYES | 12¢ | Live | 2026-07-19 | |
| 2026-04-03 | Kalshi | Will Lee Zeldin be announced as next Attorney General?YES | 60¢ | Live | Jun 30, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this prediction market track record real?
Yes. Every signal is written to our database with a timestamp before the market settles, then graded automatically against the actual Kalshi market resolution. Nothing is added or removed after the fact, and losing engines are published alongside winning ones — the full record is on this page.
How is P/L calculated on these contracts?
P/L is measured per single contract in cents. A YES contract bought at price P resolves at 100¢ on a win (profit of 100 − P) or 0¢ on a loss (loss of P). Aggregate P/L for an engine is the sum across all of its settled signals, with no position sizing applied.
What is a Brier score and why do you publish it?
The Brier score measures forecast calibration: it is the squared difference between the predicted probability and the actual outcome, averaged across signals. Lower is better — 0.25 is what always guessing 50% scores, and anything meaningfully below that indicates real predictive signal. We publish it because win rate alone can be inflated by taking heavy favorites; Brier cannot.
Why do you publish losing engines?
Because a track record you can trust has to include the losers. Some engines have negative P/L, and they stay on this page. Publishing everything is the only honest way to demonstrate the winning engines are signal rather than curation.
How often is the track record updated?
The algorithmic engine table refreshes daily as new Kalshi markets settle; Play of the Day rows post as each pick resolves. The "data as of" date at the top of each section shows the last refresh.
What is the difference between an engine signal and a Play of the Day?
Engine signals are automated outputs from our commodity and crypto edge models — Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Oil, Weather, Oracle Gas — hundreds to thousands per engine, graded in bulk. A Play of the Day is a single hand-selected position we publish a few times a week. Both are timestamped before settlement and graded the same way.
Do these results include position sizing or leverage?
No. Every P/L figure is per single contract, with no sizing, no compounding, and no leverage. That keeps the record comparable across engines and honest about raw signal quality — sizing is a separate decision you make with the Kelly tool.
Can I verify the track record myself?
Yes. Each signal is written with a timestamp before the market resolves and graded against the public Kalshi settlement, so any row can be checked against the market’s own outcome. The methodology page breaks down predicted-vs-realized hit rate by decile across 7,685 predictions.
Want the picks in real time?
Play of the Day drops before market open every day. Read today's, or unlock the full tool stack — arb scanner, Weather Edge, and Thee Oracle — with Pro.