Public Track Record
Every Play of the Day we've ever published, with outcomes. No cherry-picking, no after-the-fact edits — this is the full record.
4
Total settled
3
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pushes
75%
Win rate
+2.74u
Units
Average ROI per settled pick: +68.5%. No-play days excluded (8 total). Win rate excludes pushes. Units assume 1u risked per play; a win at entry X¢ pays (100 − X) / X units.
How to read this
- Every Play of the Day is published before markets settle. The outcome you see here is what actually happened.
- Units are the standard prediction-market sizing unit: 1u risked per pick, wins pay proportional to entry price.
- Pushes (void / cancelled contracts) are excluded from win rate but count against sample size.
- No-play days — when no market met the confidence threshold — are not counted. We don't force picks to pad a streak.
Full History
| Date | Platform | Market | Entry | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Kalshi | Dandelion: First-Week Pure Album Sales Over 40,000YES | 31¢ | loss | -1.00u |
| 2026-04-12 | Kalshi | Rory McIlroy to Win the 2026 MastersYES | 35¢ | win | +1.86u |
| 2026-04-02 | Kalshi | Will Pam Bondi leave as Attorney General?YES | 52¢ | win | +0.92u |
| 2026-04-01 | Kalshi | Oklahoma vs Colorado — Gene Clemons Play of the DayYES | 51¢ | win | +0.96u |
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