Public Track Record
Every Play of the Day we've ever published, with outcomes. No cherry-picking, no after-the-fact edits — this is the full record.
See our methodology calibration → — 7,685 historical predictions, 2 years, three commodities, predicted vs realized hit rate per decile.
19
Total settled
11
Wins
8
Losses
0
Pushes
58%
Win rate
+$3.00
P/L
Average P/L per settled pick: +$0.16. No-play days excluded (15 total). Win rate excludes pushes. P/L is dollars per 1 contract: a YES bought at X¢ pays (1 − X/100) on a win and −X/100 on a loss.
How to read this
- Every Play of the Day is published before markets settle. The outcome you see here is what actually happened.
- P/L is dollars per 1 contract. A YES at 36¢ pays +$0.64 on a win and −$0.36 on a loss. A YES at 20¢ pays +$0.80 or −$0.20. Contracts resolve at $1 or $0.
- Pushes (void / cancelled contracts) are excluded from win rate but count against sample size.
- No-play days — when no market met the confidence threshold — are not counted. We don't force picks to pad a streak.
Full History
| Date | Platform | Market | Entry | Result | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Kalshi | New York Knicks to win Game 1 (vs. San Antonio Spurs)YES | 37¢ | win | +$0.63 | |
| 2026-06-02 | Kalshi | Bitcoin above $69,250 at 5 PM ET?NO | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-05-28 | Kalshi | A.J. Brown's Next Team — New EnglandYES | 82¢ | win | +$0.18 | |
| 2026-05-15 | Kalshi | Karl-Anthony Towns — Eastern Conference Finals MVPYES | 12¢ | loss | −$0.12 | |
| 2026-05-13 | Kalshi | LA High Temperature > 69°F on 5/13/26YES | 24¢ | win | +$0.76 | |
| 2026-05-06 | Kalshi | Spotify Global #1 in May — Michael JacksonNO | 38¢ | loss | −$0.38 | |
| 2026-04-30 | Kalshi | Silver ≥ $71.99 Friday Close — Silver Edge Flags 14pp MispricingYES | 55¢ | win | +$0.45 | |
| 2026-04-28 | Kalshi | WTI Crude Oil Closes Above $100 — April 28YES | 39¢ | loss | −$0.39 | |
| 2026-04-26 | Polymarket | Cooper Flagg — NBA Rookie of the YearYES | 79¢ | win | +$0.21 | |
| 2026-04-25 | Kalshi | Will Trump say "Epstein" at the WHCD?YES | 7¢ | loss | −$0.07 | |
| 2026-04-23 | Kalshi | Caleb Banks to be drafted in the 1st roundYES | 26¢ | win | +$0.74 | |
| 2026-04-22 | Kalshi | 2026 NFL Draft #4 Overall Pick — Jeremiyah Love (Titans)YES | 36¢ | loss | −$0.36 | |
| 2026-04-20 | Kalshi | Will Central Cee be featured on Drake's ICEMAN album?YES | 67¢ | loss | −$0.67 | |
| 2026-04-16 | Kalshi | Dandelion: First-Week Pure Album Sales Over 40,000YES | 31¢ | loss | −$0.31 | |
| 2026-04-15 | Polymarket | Will Cirie Fields win Survivor 50?YES | 16¢ | loss | −$0.16 | |
| 2026-04-12 | Kalshi | Rory McIlroy to Win the 2026 MastersYES | 35¢ | win | +$0.65 | |
| 2026-04-08 | Kalshi | Another Trump Cabinet Change This Month?YES | 61¢ | win | +$0.39 | |
| 2026-04-02 | Kalshi | Will Pam Bondi leave as Attorney General?YES | 52¢ | win | +$0.48 | |
| 2026-04-01 | Kalshi | Oklahoma vs Colorado — Gene Clemons Play of the DayYES | 51¢ | win | +$0.49 |
Open Plays
Picks that haven't settled yet. Listed for transparency — they'll move into Full History above the moment the market resolves.
| Date | Platform | Market | Entry | Status | Resolves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Kalshi | Sarah Jessica Parker to say "President" at Northwestern CommencementYES | 54¢ | Live | 2026-06-14 | |
| 2026-05-25 | Kalshi | Liberation — Best Play (2026 Tony Awards)YES | 74¢ | Live | 2026-06-14 | |
| 2026-05-20 | Kalshi | Victor Wembanyama — 2026 NBA Finals MVPYES | 40¢ | Live | Finals MVP awarded (June 2026) | |
| 2026-05-17 | Kalshi | Drake — Top Artist on Spotify (USA) 2026YES | 73¢ | Live | Late 2026 (Spotify Wrapped) | |
| 2026-05-14 | Kalshi | Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026?YES | 38¢ | Live | 2026-07-01 | |
| 2026-05-12 | Kalshi | Pandemic in 2026 — Media-Frenzy Momentum (Kalshi KXNEWOUTBREAK-P-26)YES | 15¢ | Live | Jun 15, 2026 | |
| 2026-04-27 | Kalshi | Carnell Tate to win 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the YearYES | 17¢ | Live | 2027-02-07 | |
| 2026-04-24 | Kalshi | San Antonio Spurs to win 2026 NBA ChampionshipYES | 12¢ | Live | June 2026 (NBA Finals) | |
| 2026-04-17 | Kalshi | 2028 Democratic Primary Winner — Andy BeshearYES | 4¢ | Live | 2028-11-07 | |
| 2026-04-14 | Kalshi | Aaron Taylor-Johnson to Be the Next James BondYES | 22¢ | Live | 2026 | |
| 2026-04-09 | Kalshi | Harry Kane — World Cup 2026 Golden Boot WinnerYES | 12¢ | Live | 2026-07-19 | |
| 2026-04-03 | Kalshi | Will Lee Zeldin be announced as next Attorney General?YES | 60¢ | Live | Jun 30, 2026 | |
| 2026-03-31 | Kalshi | Where will the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occur?YES | 47¢ | Live | 2026-06-13 |
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