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Gridiron Edge

NFL Week 1 — 2026 Predictions

All 16 Week 1 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities and the prediction-market read. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.

Biggest edges · Live on Kalshi
PMP · WK 1 TOP EDGE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY BAL +1.3
vs IND -1
HOME IND -0.1
Model · IND 53% home win prob
Kalshi · IND 36¢ yes mid
Edge +17.2pp model − market
📍 Indianapolis, IN BUY IND
PMP · WK 1 TOP EDGE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY MIA -3.0
vs MIA -0.5
HOME LV -5.8
Model · LV 49% home win prob
Kalshi · LV 65¢ yes mid
Edge -15.4pp model − market
📍 Paradise, NV BUY MIA
PMP · WK 1 TOP EDGE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY ARI -3.6
vs LAC -5.5
HOME LAC -0.4
Model · LAC 66% home win prob
Kalshi · LAC 82¢ yes mid
Edge -15.0pp model − market
📍 Inglewood, CA BUY ARI
W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18
MatchupModel lineEdge
Patriotsat
Seahawks
Seahawks −2.5-9pp
49ersat
Rams
Rams −5.5+3pp
Bearsat
Panthers
Bears −1+5pp
Buccaneersat
Bengals
Bengals −2.5-7pp
Saintsat
Lions
Lions −7.5-5pp
Billsat
Texans
Texans −0+0pp
Ravensat
Colts
Colts −1+17pp
Brownsat
Jaguars
Jaguars −7-7pp
Falconsat
Steelers
Steelers −2.5-3pp
Jetsat
Titans
Titans −3+4pp
Cardinalsat
Chargers
Chargers −5.5-15pp
Dolphinsat
Raiders
Dolphins −0.5-15pp
Packersat
Vikings
Packers −3-11pp
Commandersat
Eagles
Eagles −6.5+2pp
Cowboysat
Giants
Cowboys −0+6pp
Broncosat
Chiefs
Chiefs −1-6pp

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Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.