NFL Week 1 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of September 13, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 1 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Eagles at 67% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 1 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Patriots at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (57%)
- 49ers at Rams — Model winner: Rams (63%)
- Bears at Panthers — Model winner: Bears (51%)
- Buccaneers at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (57%)
- Saints at Lions — Model winner: Lions (65%)
- Bills at Texans — Model winner: Texans (53%)
- Ravens at Colts — Model winner: Colts (54%)
- Browns at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (65%)
- Falcons at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (57%)
- Jets at Titans — Model winner: Titans (58%)
- Cardinals at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (66%)
- Dolphins at Raiders — Model winner: Raiders (50%)
- Packers at Vikings — Model winner: Packers (60%)
- Commanders at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (67%)
- Cowboys at Giants — Model winner: Giants (50%)
- Broncos at Chiefs — Model winner: Chiefs (53%)
All 16 Week 1 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 1 straight-up picks
16 market favorites and 0 upsets across 16 games. The model sides with the market favorite in every game.
- Seahawks over Patriots · pre-game call57%50¢
- Rams over 49ers · pre-game call63%50¢
- Bears over Panthers · pre-game call51%50¢
- Bengals over Buccaneers · pre-game call57%50¢
- Lions over Saints · pre-game call65%50¢
- Texans over Bills · pre-game call53%50¢
- Colts over Ravens · pre-game call54%50¢
- Jaguars over Browns · pre-game call65%50¢
- Steelers over Falcons · pre-game call57%50¢
- Titans over Jets · pre-game call58%50¢
- Chargers over Cardinals · pre-game call66%50¢
- Raiders over Dolphins · pre-game call50%50¢
- Packers over Vikings · pre-game call60%50¢
- Eagles over Commanders · pre-game call67%50¢
- Giants over Cowboys · pre-game call50%61.5¢
- Chiefs over Broncos53%56.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 1 projected scores
- PatriotsatSeahawks22.3–24.847.1
- 49ersatRams24.8–28.953.8
- BearsatPanthers24.4–23.748.0
- BuccaneersatBengals23.0–25.448.4
- SaintsatLions18.1–25.443.5
- BillsatTexans22.1–22.844.9
- RavensatColts23.4–24.748.1
- BrownsatJaguars16.2–23.739.9
- FalconsatSteelers21.2–23.644.8
- JetsatTitans19.5–22.241.7
- CardinalsatChargers19.9–25.545.4
- DolphinsatRaiders21.4–21.643.0
- PackersatVikings24.5–21.345.8
- CommandersatEagles20.1–26.446.5
- CowboysatGiants27.2–27.454.6
- BroncosatChiefs22.1–22.844.9
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
WAS
-1.5
PHI
+2.4
ARI
-3.7
LAC
-0.6
CLE
-2.3
JAX
+2.6
NFL Week 1 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 1 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 1 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 1 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 1 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 1 games, with its win probability. Seahawks over Patriots (57%); Rams over 49ers (63%); Bears over Panthers (51%); Bengals over Buccaneers (57%); Lions over Saints (65%); Texans over Bills (53%); Colts over Ravens (54%); Jaguars over Browns (65%); Steelers over Falcons (57%); Titans over Jets (58%); Chargers over Cardinals (66%); Raiders over Dolphins (50%); Packers over Vikings (60%); Eagles over Commanders (67%); Giants over Cowboys (50%); Chiefs over Broncos (53%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 1?
Projected scores, winner first: Seahawks 24.8, Patriots 22.3; Rams 28.9, 49ers 24.8; Bears 24.4, Panthers 23.7; Bengals 25.4, Buccaneers 23.0; Lions 25.4, Saints 18.1; Texans 22.8, Bills 22.1; Colts 24.7, Ravens 23.4; Jaguars 23.7, Browns 16.2; Steelers 23.6, Falcons 21.2; Titans 22.2, Jets 19.5; Chargers 25.5, Cardinals 19.9; Raiders 21.6, Dolphins 21.4; Packers 24.5, Vikings 21.3; Eagles 26.4, Commanders 20.1; Giants 27.4, Cowboys 27.2; Chiefs 22.8, Broncos 22.1. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 1 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.