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Gridiron Edge

NFL Week 1 2026 Results: Our Predictions Graded

Updated · market prices

Quick Answer

As of September 14, 2026, Week 1 is final. The model went 10–6 straight up and 0–9 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.

Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.

This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.

See how all 16 Week 1 calls graded →

Week 1 straight-up picks

The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.

WinnerModelKalshi
  1. Seahawks over Patriots · pre-game call    57%50¢
  2. Rams over 49ers · pre-game call    63%50¢
  3. Bears over Panthers · pre-game call    51%50¢
  4. Bengals over Buccaneers · pre-game call    57%50¢
  5. Lions over Saints · pre-game call    65%50¢
  6. Texans over Bills · pre-game call    53%50¢
  7. Colts over Ravens · pre-game call    54%50¢
  8. Jaguars over Browns · pre-game call    65%50¢
  9. Steelers over Falcons · pre-game call    57%50¢
  10. Titans over Jets · pre-game call    58%50¢
  11. Chargers over Cardinals · pre-game call    66%50¢
  12. Raiders over Dolphins · pre-game call    50%50¢
  13. Packers over Vikings · pre-game call    60%50¢
  14. Eagles over Commanders · pre-game call    67%50¢
  15. Giants over Cowboys · pre-game call    50%50¢
  16. Chiefs over Broncos · pre-game call    53%50¢

Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.

Week 1 in numbers

  • 10–6 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
  • 3 upsets by closing line among the 14 games recapped, led by the Cardinals at +370 (+8.5): Cardinals 26, Chargers 14.
  • The line moved toward the winner in 7 of 14, toward the loser in 2, flat in 5; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 105, toward the loser in 41, flat in 15.

Biggest moves of Week 1

  1. Packers at Vikings: moved 4 toward the Vikings (Vikings +1.5 → −2.5); Vikings won by 17toward winner
  2. Falcons at Steelers: moved 3.5 toward the Steelers (Steelers −3 → −6.5); Steelers won by 7toward winner
  3. Cardinals at Chargers: moved 3 toward the Cardinals (Chargers −11.5 → −8.5); Cardinals won by 12toward winner

One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →

Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model

Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 1 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.

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  1. Patriots at Seahawks — Final: Patriots 10, Seahawks 13 · model had Seahawks (57%, pre-game)
  2. 49ers at Rams — Final: 49ers 27, Rams 7 · model had Rams (63%, pre-game)
  3. Bears at Panthers — Final: Bears 59, Panthers 37 · model had Bears (51%, pre-game)
  4. Buccaneers at Bengals — Final: Buccaneers 27, Bengals 33 · model had Bengals (57%, pre-game)
  5. Saints at Lions — Final: Saints 30, Lions 31 (OT) · model had Lions (65%, pre-game)
  6. Bills at Texans — Final: Bills 36, Texans 31 · model had Texans (53%, pre-game)
  7. Ravens at Colts — Final: Ravens 41, Colts 23 · model had Colts (54%, pre-game)
  8. Browns at Jaguars — Final: Browns 10, Jaguars 34 · model had Jaguars (65%, pre-game)
  9. Falcons at Steelers — Final: Falcons 13, Steelers 20 · model had Steelers (57%, pre-game)
  10. Jets at Titans — Final: Jets 23, Titans 10 · model had Titans (58%, pre-game)
  11. Cardinals at Chargers — Final: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14 · model had Chargers (66%, pre-game)
  12. Dolphins at Raiders — Final: Dolphins 13, Raiders 27 · model had Raiders (50%, pre-game)
  13. Packers at Vikings — Final: Packers 22, Vikings 39 · model had Packers (60%, pre-game)
  14. Commanders at Eagles — Final: Commanders 22, Eagles 24 · model had Eagles (67%, pre-game)
  15. Cowboys at Giants — Final: Cowboys 20, Giants 28 · model had Giants (50%, pre-game)
  16. Broncos at Chiefs — Final: Broncos 10, Chiefs 31 · model had Chiefs (53%, pre-game)

All 16 Week 1 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.

Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.

Biggest NFL upsets of 2026, by closing line →

Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.

How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →

Live: every Week 1 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

W1W2W3W4W5W6W7W8W9W10W11W12W13W14W15W16W17W18
MatchupLineEdge
Patriotsat
Seahawks
Seahawks −2.5+7pp
49ersat
Rams
Rams −4+13pp
Bearsat
Panthers
Bears −0.5-1pp
Buccaneersat
Bengals
Bengals −2.5+7pp
Saintsat
Lions
Lions −7.5+15pp
Billsat
Texans
Texans −0.5+3pp
Ravensat
Colts
Colts −1.5+4pp
Brownsat
Jaguars
Jaguars −7.5+15pp
Falconsat
Steelers
Steelers −2.5+7pp
Jetsat
Titans
Titans −3+8pp
Cardinalsat
Chargers
Chargers −5.5+16pp
Dolphinsat
Raiders
Raiders −0+0pp
Packersat
Vikings
Packers −3-10pp
Commandersat
Eagles
Eagles −6.5+17pp
Cowboysat
Giants
Giants −0+0pp
Broncosat
Chiefs
Chiefs −0.5+3pp

Week 1 primetime, live

NE at SEA — full breakdown →
SF at LAR — full breakdown →
DAL at NYG — full breakdown →

Run Week 1 yourself

All tools →
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket US vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)

Week 1 players to watch

All players →

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

Bijan Robinson

RB

Puka Nacua

WR

Ja'Marr Chase

WR

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

Jonathan Taylor

RB

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR

James Cook

RB

Derrick Henry

RB

Drake London

WR

CeeDee Lamb

WR

Justin Jefferson

WR

Ashton Jeanty

RB

Rashee Rice

WR

Chase Brown

RB

One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

Biggest edges · Live on KalshiEvery NFL edge on the board →

Watch the Week 1 breakdown

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NFL Week 1 predictions — frequently asked

Who does the model pick in NFL Week 1 2026?

Week 1 is in progress: 16 of 16 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.

How are these NFL Week 1 predictions made?

Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.

What does the edge on each game mean?

Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.

Who will win each NFL Week 1 game?

The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 1 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Seahawks over Patriots (57%, pre-game); Rams over 49ers (63%, pre-game); Bears over Panthers (51%, pre-game); Bengals over Buccaneers (57%, pre-game); Lions over Saints (65%, pre-game); Texans over Bills (53%, pre-game); Colts over Ravens (54%, pre-game); Jaguars over Browns (65%, pre-game); Steelers over Falcons (57%, pre-game); Titans over Jets (58%, pre-game); Chargers over Cardinals (66%, pre-game); Raiders over Dolphins (50%, pre-game); Packers over Vikings (60%, pre-game); Eagles over Commanders (67%, pre-game); Giants over Cowboys (50%, pre-game); Chiefs over Broncos (53%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.

What are the NFL Week 1 picks straight up?

Week 1 picks straight up: Seahawks over Patriots (pre-game call), Rams over 49ers (pre-game call), Bears over Panthers (pre-game call), Bengals over Buccaneers (pre-game call), Lions over Saints (pre-game call), Texans over Bills (pre-game call), Colts over Ravens (pre-game call), Jaguars over Browns (pre-game call), Steelers over Falcons (pre-game call), Titans over Jets (pre-game call), Chargers over Cardinals (pre-game call), Raiders over Dolphins (pre-game call), Packers over Vikings (pre-game call), Eagles over Commanders (pre-game call), Giants over Cowboys (pre-game call), Chiefs over Broncos (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.

How often are the Week 1 picks updated?

Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.