Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Ravens by 4.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, NFL Week 18 2026 — 63% to win, and the second AFC North meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10PITBAL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Ravens at 58c or below (or Steelers at 32c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PIT
-0.5
BAL
+1.3
Steelers
37%
model win prob
Ravens
63%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10PITBALhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Ravens at 58c or below, or the Steelers at 32c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Steelers and Ravens already played in Week 15, and now the Steelers make the return trip in Week 18. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.3 against -0.5, plus home field, equals the Ravens by 4.5 (63%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +1.2 (11th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Ravens defense (-0.3, 12th), a 0.3-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 15, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC North race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10) — 1.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Steelers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Steelers' favour, plus 5 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 26-24 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Ravens here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10PITBAL, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Ravens 63%, Steelers 37%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Ravens contracts a buy at 58c or below and Steelers contracts a buy at 32c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Steelers vs Ravens — frequently asked
Who is favored in Steelers vs Ravens in Week 18?
Our power-rating model favors the Ravens by 4.5 points, a 63% win probability over the Steelers. The Ravens rate 12th of 32 (+1.3) and the Steelers 19th (-0.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10PITBAL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC North result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC North teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 15. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Ravens by 4.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Steelers vs Ravens?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10PITBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 58c or below, or the Steelers at 32c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Ravens host the Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
What does the model project for the Ravens and Steelers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Steelers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Ravens?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Ravens at 63% over the Steelers sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 15. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Steelers–Ravens, Week 15 →
More Week 18 matchups
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