NFL Week 17 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· model ratings
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, the Week 17 slate is not loaded yet.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability and straight-up winner; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Week 17 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open. 16 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Ravens at Bengals Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Saints at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Seahawks at Panthers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Colts at Browns Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Giants at Cowboys Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Commanders at Jaguars Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Chiefs at Chargers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Bills at Dolphins Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Broncos at Patriots Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Vikings at Jets Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Rams at Buccaneers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Steelers at Titans Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Raiders at Cardinals Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Lions at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Eagles at 49ers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
- Texans at Packers Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedββ
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 17 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Ravens at Bengals β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Saints at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Seahawks at Panthers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Colts at Browns β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Giants at Cowboys β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Commanders at Jaguars β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Chiefs at Chargers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bills at Dolphins β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Broncos at Patriots β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Vikings at Jets β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Rams at Buccaneers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Steelers at Titans β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Raiders at Cardinals β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Lions at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Eagles at 49ers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Texans at Packers β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
All 16 Week 17 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
Week 17 QB & injury watch
Where a quarterback's status moves our number. An unconfirmed starter gets two lines that collapse to one when the team names him; an unvetted room gets no line until it is.
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Ravens at Bengals because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Ravens at Bengals β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Saints at Falcons because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Saints at Falcons β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Seahawks at Panthers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Seahawks at Panthers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Colts at Browns because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Colts at Browns β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Giants at Cowboys because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Giants at Cowboys β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Commanders at Jaguars because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Commanders at Jaguars β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Chiefs at Chargers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Chiefs at Chargers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Bills at Dolphins because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Bills at Dolphins β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Broncos at Patriots because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Broncos at Patriots β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Vikings at Jets because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Vikings at Jets β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Rams at Buccaneers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Rams at Buccaneers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Steelers at Titans because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Steelers at Titans β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Raiders at Cardinals because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Raiders at Cardinals β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Lions at Bears because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Lions at Bears β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Eagles at 49ers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Eagles at 49ers β
Line heldWatching both quarterback rooms in Texans at Packers because a starter isn't confirmed, so the game carries no model line, lean or call yet; once both starters are confirmed, the line and the call publish here and on the game page. Texans at Packers β
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means β
Live: every Week 17 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
Week 17 primetime, live
Run Week 17 yourself
All tools βRankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 17 players to watch
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
NFL Week 17 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 17 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 17 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 17 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 17 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 17 games, with its win probability. Ravens at Bengals (QB pending); Saints at Falcons (QB pending); Seahawks at Panthers (QB pending); Colts at Browns (QB pending); Giants at Cowboys (QB pending); Commanders at Jaguars (QB pending); Chiefs at Chargers (QB pending); Bills at Dolphins (QB pending); Broncos at Patriots (QB pending); Vikings at Jets (QB pending); Rams at Buccaneers (QB pending); Steelers at Titans (QB pending); Raiders at Cardinals (QB pending); Lions at Bears (QB pending); Eagles at 49ers (QB pending); Texans at Packers (QB pending). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 17 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.