NFL Week 17 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 17 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Patriots at 68% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 17 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Ravens at Bengals — Model winner: Bengals (52%)
- Saints at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (64%)
- Seahawks at Panthers — Model winner: Seahawks (63%)
- Colts at Browns — Model winner: Browns (52%)
- Giants at Cowboys — Model winner: Cowboys (65%)
- Commanders at Jaguars — Model winner: Jaguars (67%)
- Chiefs at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (57%)
- Bills at Dolphins — Model winner: Bills (64%)
- Broncos at Patriots — Model winner: Patriots (68%)
- Vikings at Jets — Model winner: Jets (53%)
- Rams at Buccaneers — Model winner: Rams (60%)
- Steelers at Titans — Model winner: Steelers (51%)
- Raiders at Cardinals — Model winner: Cardinals (64%)
- Lions at Bears — Model winner: Bears (54%)
- Eagles at 49ers — Model winner: 49ers (55%)
- Texans at Packers — Model winner: Packers (62%)
All 16 Week 17 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 17 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Bengals over Ravens52%—
- Falcons over Saints64%—
- Seahawks over Panthers63%—
- Browns over Colts52%—
- Cowboys over Giants65%—
- Jaguars over Commanders67%—
- Chargers over Chiefs57%—
- Bills over Dolphins64%—
- Patriots over Broncos68%—
- Jets over Vikings53%—
- Rams over Buccaneers60%—
- Steelers over Titans51%—
- Cardinals over Raiders64%—
- Bears over Lions54%—
- 49ers over Eagles55%—
- Packers over Texans62%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 17 projected scores
- RavensatBengals23.8–24.348.1
- SaintsatFalcons19.7–24.243.9
- SeahawksatPanthers24.8–20.645.3
- ColtsatBrowns20.3–20.741.0
- GiantsatCowboys24.5–30.054.6
- CommandersatJaguars21.6–27.949.5
- ChiefsatChargers20.7–23.143.9
- BillsatDolphins27.5–22.550.0
- BroncosatPatriots20.2–26.847.0
- VikingsatJets20.1–20.941.0
- RamsatBuccaneers26.2–23.049.1
- SteelersatTitans21.6–21.042.6
- RaidersatCardinals19.5–24.444.0
- LionsatBears23.1–24.547.6
- Eaglesat49ers23.7–25.248.9
- TexansatPackers20.1–23.844.0
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 17 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 17 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 17 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 17 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 17 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 17 games, with its win probability. Bengals over Ravens (52%); Falcons over Saints (64%); Seahawks over Panthers (63%); Browns over Colts (52%); Cowboys over Giants (65%); Jaguars over Commanders (67%); Chargers over Chiefs (57%); Bills over Dolphins (64%); Patriots over Broncos (68%); Jets over Vikings (53%); Rams over Buccaneers (60%); Steelers over Titans (51%); Cardinals over Raiders (64%); Bears over Lions (54%); 49ers over Eagles (55%); Packers over Texans (62%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 17?
Projected scores, winner first: Bengals 24.3, Ravens 23.8; Falcons 24.2, Saints 19.7; Seahawks 24.8, Panthers 20.6; Browns 20.7, Colts 20.3; Cowboys 30.0, Giants 24.5; Jaguars 27.9, Commanders 21.6; Chargers 23.1, Chiefs 20.7; Bills 27.5, Dolphins 22.5; Patriots 26.8, Broncos 20.2; Jets 20.9, Vikings 20.1; Rams 26.2, Buccaneers 23.0; Steelers 21.6, Titans 21.0; Cardinals 24.4, Raiders 19.5; Bears 24.5, Lions 23.1; 49ers 25.2, Eagles 23.7; Packers 23.8, Texans 20.1. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 17 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.