HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyUpdated Aug 15, 3:21 AM UTC

2026 House Races — The New Maps, Priced

Name: 2026 U.S. House Redistricting and Market Coverage
Creator: The 7 Oracles
License: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tos

14 states redrew their congressional map for this cycle. The settled ones move a net +2 R before a single vote is cast. This page puts that seat math next to the live contracts — 66 tracked districts and the chamber ladder — so you can see what the board has already absorbed.

Quick Answer

redistricting moves the 2026 House map by a net +2 R on the 5 maps already settled and in force, before any campaigning. 3 more states are running new maps that are in use but under active litigation, worth a further +3 to +5 R — if those survive, the combined shift is +5 to +7 R out of 435 seats, against a 218-seat majority threshold.

The two biggest settled redraws very nearly cancel — California at +5 D against Texas at +5 R — so the net is decided by the smaller maps underneath them (Ohio, North Carolina and Utah) and by whether the contested maps survive their challenges.

6 redraws were blocked or fell short and move nothing at all. They stay counted because a map that was attempted and failed is a different fact from a state that never tried — and only one of the two can come back next cycle.

Market coverage: 66 of 435 House seats have an individual Kalshi contract; 21 of those are returning live prices on this refresh. The other 369 are priced only through the chamber seat-count and balance-of-power markets.

See the Senate board — all seats, market by market →

Redistricting — The Seats That Moved Before Anyone Voted

14 states · 8 that move seats

Settled maps, in force: +2 R
In use, under challenge: +3 to +5 R
Combined, if challenges fail: +5 to +7 R

Every state that redrew or tried to, settled maps first. Net effect is expressed as seats gained by the party that drew the advantage — the two largest, California and Texas, very nearly cancel, which is why the smaller ones decide the number. Each row carries the date of the ruling or vote it describes; the contested maps are in use today and can still be thrown out.

2026 congressional redistricting by state: status, net seat effect, and what changed.
State	Status	Net effect	What changed	Tracked districts
California52 seats	In force	+5 D	Prop 50 response map, SCOTUS cleared Feb 4 2026	CA-03CA-09CA-13CA-21CA-22CA-27CA-40CA-41CA-45CA-47CA-49
Texas38 seats	In force	+5 R	HB 4 mid-decade map; SCOTUS upheld Apr 27 2026	TX-15TX-28TX-34
Ohio15 seats	In force	+2 R	court-required redraw targeting OH-09 (Kaptur) & OH-13 (Sykes)	OH-01OH-09 OH-13
North Carolina14 seats	In force	+1 R	new GOP map targeting NC-01 (Davis)	NC-01
Utah4 seats	In force	+1 D	court-ordered map creating Salt Lake County Dem seat	none tracked
Florida28 seats	In use, under challenge	+1 to +3 R	new GOP map passed late Apr 2026 post-Callais; litigation live	FL-13FL-23
Louisiana6 seats	In use, under challenge	+1 R	post-Callais map eliminating one majority-Black seat, approved late May 2026; litigation live	none tracked
Missouri8 seats	In use, under challenge	+1 R	new GOP map in effect (6-2 to 7-1 R); repeal referendum certification pending, deadline Aug 4 2026	none tracked
Virginia11 seats	Voided	0 (would have been +4 D)	VA Supreme Court voided referendum May 8 2026; SCOTUS declined appeal May 15 — OLD map used	VA-01VA-02VA-07
Indiana9 seats	Fell short	0	GOP redraw rejected by state Senate Dec 2025	IN-01
Kansas4 seats	Fell short	0	GOP redraw fell short Jan 2026	none tracked
Maryland8 seats	Fell short	0	Dem redraw blocked by state Senate; filing deadline passed	none tracked
Nebraska3 seats	Fell short	0	NE-02 redraw effort stalled	NE-02
New York26 seats	Fell short	0	Dem redraw blocked for 2026; SCOTUS let existing lines stand	NY-03NY-04NY-17NY-18NY-19NY-22

6 of the 14 contribute nothing to the seat math — the redraw was voided or never passed. They stay in the table because “a map that was attempted and failed” is a different fact from “a state that never tried,” and only one of those can come back next cycle.

House Control & Seat Count

218 seats to control

The chamber ladder is where the new maps actually get priced — traders holding these contracts are pricing the whole map at once, so nothing here separates redistricting from environment. Read the distribution around 218 against the +5 to +7 R above.

R House Seats

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 Midterms?

Redistricting — The Seats That Moved Before Anyone Voted

House Control & Seat Count

Tracked Districts — 66 of 435

District Breakdowns

2026 House markets — frequently asked

How much does redistricting change the 2026 House map?

Which 2026 House races have prediction markets?

Do prediction markets price redistricting?

Why does a district with no market still appear on this board?

How many seats does a party need to control the House?