Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

The Lions travel to face the Dolphins in Week 9. Our power ratings put the Dolphins 28th of 32 at -3.0 (Average tier) and the Lions 8th at +2.4 (Playoff tier) — a 5.4-point gap that home field narrows to a 3-point line on the Lions, 58% to win. It rates as the 9th-widest of the 15 games in Week 9.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 1.9-point gap.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13) — 3.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 9th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Lions'.

The series is dead level: 3-3 across 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Dolphins won 31-27 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 1-3. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.

Wind is the variable at this venue: Miami home games in November have run a median 10 mph across 8 games since 2015, at a median 78°F. Wind moves kicking and the deep passing game more than temperature does, and our model has no term for either — this is context to apply on top of the 58% number, not something already inside it.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Lions at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Dolphins 42%, Lions 58%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Dolphins contracts a buy at 37c or below and Lions contracts a buy at 53c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.