Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Lions

52%

model win prob

Dolphins

48%

model win prob

Model line

Lions −0.5

Kalshi (Dolphins)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Lions — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Detroit Lions+1.28thPlayoff

Miami Dolphins-2.026thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 9, the Detroit Lions travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 26th of 32 (Average tier, -2.0) and the Lions 8th (Playoff tier, +1.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Lions by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Lions.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 48% (Dolphins) / 52% (Lions) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Lions vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who is favored in Lions vs Dolphins in Week 9?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Lions by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Lions vs Dolphins?

Home win probability 48% (Dolphins), away 52% (Lions). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Lions 8th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Lions vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.