Lions vs Dolphins Prediction — Week 9, Sun Nov 8
Updated · market price
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 21% for the Dolphins in Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Lions by 7.5 (75% to win) — a 4.8pp gap. Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-30No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
DET
+0.6
MIA
-4.3
No position on this one — the call is withheld (the read above says why). Get the full Week 9 card free, every game priced against the market.
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The model's own number is under review on this game; the market line is the only line published.
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
71%
Madden 27
29%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Lions at Dolphins How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Lions vs Dolphins power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Lions and Dolphins season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Lions vs Dolphins — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
The market line: Lions at Dolphins
Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA contract implies 21% for the Dolphins against a fair value (books) of 25% — a 4.8-point gap. Our model is far enough from the market here that it is more likely our ratings than the price — market line shown, no position.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Dolphins on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA
- Market-implied (Dolphins)
- 21c · 21%
- Fair value — books (Dolphins)
- 25%
- Fair value vs market
- +4.8pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 21c on the Dolphins is an implied 21% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 25%, a 4.8pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Lions vs Dolphins line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Lions −6.5 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Lions −7.5. On Kalshi the Lions trade at 80¢ to win, a 80% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Lions −6.5 · O/U 47.5Sep 13 | Lions −7 · O/U 48.5 | |
| FanDuel | Lions −8.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | Lions −8.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Caesars | Lions −6.5 · O/U 46.5Sep 13 | Lions −7 · O/U 48.5 | |
| BetRivers | Lions −7.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | Lions −7.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Novig | Lions −8.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 29 | Lions −8.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Lions 80¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Lions vs Dolphins trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Dolphins | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 21% 21c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 22% 22c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 21% 21c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 21% 21c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 21% 21c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Lions at Dolphins
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 11:12 AM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi11:14 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner11:12 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions to win | 81¢82.1¢ after fees | 80.8¢81.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Dolphins to win | 22¢23.2¢ after fees | 22¢23.2¢ after fees | Even |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 400 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Lions vs Dolphins
Lions vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who will win Dolphins vs Lions?
The market line has the Lions at 75% to beat the Dolphins in Week 9.
Who is favored in Lions vs Dolphins in Week 9?
The market line has the Lions by 7.5 points, a 75% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA market implies 21% for the Dolphins — a 4.8pp gap versus the market line.
What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Dolphins?
Lions offense (+2.1, 9th of 32) against Dolphins defense (-3.9, 31st) — 6.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Lions vs Dolphins?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Dolphins YES is quoted around 21c against a fair value (books) of 25%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 5.0 wins (favored in 2) and the Lions at 9.6 (favored in 9). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Lions', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Dolphins?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA. The Dolphins YES contract sits around 21c, which is an implied 21% — against our books-anchored fair value of 25%. That is a 4.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Lions vs Dolphins on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV08DETMIA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Lions vs Dolphins ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Dolphins moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 25% against a market price implying 21%, an edge of +4.8 points. Model 25% vs market 21% on MIA — call withheld (model under review). We pass — no position.
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More Week 9 matchups
Jaguars at RavensModel: Ravens −1
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The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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