Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 5 in Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 8 2026 — 65% to win, and a AFC South game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 60c or below (or Colts at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
+0.0
JAX
+2.6
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Colts
35%
model win prob
Jaguars
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
55%
Madden 27
45%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 60c or below, or the Colts at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Colts at Jaguars
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
AFC South math: Colts at Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Jaguars by 5 (65%) off a +2.6 to +0.0 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+1.1, 11th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 1.1-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.4 projected wins for the Jaguars against 8.7 for the Colts, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Colts'. Nothing on the Colts' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 23-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 65% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 65%, Colts 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 60c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC
- Market-implied (Jaguars)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jaguars)
- 65%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jaguars at 60c or below, or the Colts at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Colts vs Jaguars trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jaguars | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Colts vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Jaguars in Week 8?
Our power-rating model picks the Jaguars by 5 points, a 65% win probability over the Colts, for a projected score of Jaguars 27, Colts 22 on a ratings-implied 48.5-point total. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.6) and the Colts 15th (+0.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jaguars by 5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 60c or below, or the Colts at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jaguars host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Jaguars?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jaguars at 60c or below or the Colts at 30c or below, off a 5-point line.
Can you trade Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Jaguars?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Jaguars at 65% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Colts–Jaguars, Week 18 →
More Week 8 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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