Gridiron EdgeWeek 8 · 2026AFC South rivalry

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Updated October 15, 2026 · model ratings

Sunday, November 1, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

Quick Answer

As of October 15, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Jaguars by 6.5 in Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 8 2026 — 67% to win, and a AFC South game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 62c or below (or Colts at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.

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PMP · WK 8 MARKET PENDING

Sun, Nov 1

AWAY

IND -0.7

vs JAX -6.5

HOME

JAX +3.2

Model · JAX 67% home win prob

Kalshi · JAX — yes mid

Edge — model − market

📍 Jacksonville, FL MARKET PENDING

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Colts

33%

our model

Jaguars

67%

our model

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

55%

Madden 27

45%

Madden 27

KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Colts at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.

Run the numbers yourself

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Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs the books.→Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate — true joint probability, free, no leg cap.→NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.→Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.→

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The Ladder — Colts at Jaguars

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Colts at JaguarsSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

StrikeKalshi YES · 0–100¢Take itBooksGap

Market

—

Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

Legend

Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
book consensus (no-vig)
Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.

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Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Colts at Jaguars Kalshi spread ladder for Week 8: the Kalshi price at every spread strike — The Colts–Jaguars spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Colts vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 8)

TeamRatingRankTier

Indianapolis Colts-0.721stAverage

Jacksonville Jaguars+3.23rdPlayoff

Colts and Jaguars season outlook

INDJAX

Average wins8.011.2

Make playoffs30%83%

Win division17%72%

Win Super Bowl1.7%9.2%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

AFC South math: Colts at Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Jaguars by 6.5 (67%) off a +3.2 to -0.7 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.9 (7th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (24th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+0.1, 18th) meets the Jaguars defense (+0.6, 7th), a 0.5-point gap.

On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 11.2 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Colts at 8.0 (favored in 9) — 3.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Colts'. Nothing on the Colts' schedule projects harder than this one.

Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 23-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 67%, Colts 33%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 62c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the AFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi

Kalshi event: KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC
Market-implied (Jaguars): not listed yet
Our ratings line (Jaguars): 67%
Model vs market: —

Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Colts at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Colts vs Jaguars trades

Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

Venue	Jaguars	Trade
Kalshi	not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game	Trade on Kalshi →
Novig	not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket	no captured price for this game — international book	Sign-up offer →
Polymarket US	no captured price for this game — US exchange	Sign-up offer →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract	same Kalshi contract, not listed yet	Open Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictions	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predicts	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Markets	price not available — sign-up offer →	Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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Watch the breakdown: Colts vs Jaguars

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Colts vs Jaguars — frequently asked

Who will win Jaguars vs Colts?

Our model has the Jaguars at 67% to beat the Colts in Week 8.

Who is favored in Colts vs Jaguars in Week 8?

Our power-rating model picks the Jaguars by 6.5 points, a 67% win probability over the Colts. The Jaguars rate 3rd of 32 (+3.2) and the Colts 21st (-0.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.

How much does a AFC South result matter here?

Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jaguars by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.

How do you take a position on Colts vs Jaguars?

The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Colts at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Jaguars host the Colts?

Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.

What does the model project for the Jaguars and Colts this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 11.2 wins (favored in 12) and the Colts at 8.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Jaguars?

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jaguars at 62c or below or the Colts at 28c or below, off a 6.5-point line.

Can you trade Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi?

Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.

How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Jaguars?

68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Jaguars at 67% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?

Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Trade this game on Kalshi →Jaguars hub →Colts hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 8 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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The rematch

They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Colts–Jaguars, Week 18 →

After this one

Colts: Week 9 vs CowboysModel line →Jaguars: Week 9 at RavensModel line →

More Week 8 matchups

Panthers at PackersPackers −4.5

Ravens at BillsBills −3

Titans at BengalsBengals −9

Cardinals at CowboysCowboys −6

Vikings at LionsLions −3.5

Raiders at JetsJets −3.5

Browns at SteelersSteelers −3

Falcons at BuccaneersFalcons −2.5

Chargers at RamsRams −7.5

Chiefs at BroncosBroncos −3.5

Patriots at DolphinsPatriots −6

Eagles at CommandersCommanders −1

Bears at SeahawksSeahawks −4

Full Week 8 board →Next: NFL Week 9 predictions →

Same model, inside your AI agent

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