Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Jaguars by 5.5 (65%) off a +2.7 to -0.1 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.7 (23rd) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (+0.9, 14th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.9-point gap.

On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.

Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.5 projected wins for the Jaguars against 8.6 for the Colts, favored in 11 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Colts'. Nothing on the Colts' schedule projects harder than this one.

Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 23-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 65%, Colts 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 60c or below and Colts contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Full division picture on the AFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.