Colts vs Jaguars Prediction — Week 8, Sun Nov 1
Updated · market price
Week 8 game-week updates
- · Lines: Jaguars −9.5 is the median across 9 books, moved from Jaguars −4.5 on the earliest line we archived (DraftKings, Sep 13).
- · Kalshi: Jaguars 80¢ to win, +5¢ since the market opened October 20, 2026.
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, Kalshi implies 81% for the Jaguars in Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 8 2026, while the market line has the Jaguars by 9.5 (80% to win) — a 0.5pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Jaguars by 7.0 against a market line of Jaguars by 9.5 — a 2.5-point lean toward the Colts, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 8 · 2026-10-28No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Colts vs Jaguars: where the prop prices are How prop price gaps work →
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this game is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 250+ pass yds | 48.5¢ | 49.5%2bk | -1.0¢ | over · ProphetX 51¢under · Novig 53.1¢ |
| Bhayshul Tuten | anytime TD | 48.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · Kalshi 53.8¢ |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 40+ rush yds | 76.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 81¢ |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 50+ rush yds | 63.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 68.8¢ |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 60+ rush yds | 54.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 56.9¢ |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 70+ rush yds | 42.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · ProphetX 44.1¢ |
| Brenton Strange | anytime TD | 27.5¢ | — | one-sided | over · Kalshi 29.4¢under · Kalshi 74.4¢ |
| Chris Rodriguez | 25+ rush yds | 56.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Novig 51¢under · Kalshi 45.7¢ |
See all 26 priced prop strikes for this game on the board →+ 126 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
IND
-1.6
JAX
+2.8
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 8 card free, every game priced against the market.
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Colts
20%
fair value (books)
Jaguars
80%
fair value (books)
Market-anchored fair value: IND 21% (+1.6pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
55%
Madden 27
45%
Madden 27
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Colts at Jaguars How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi prices Jaguars −9.5 at 52¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- −27.5Jaguars——
- −23.5Jaguars——
- −20.5Jaguars——
- −17.5Jaguars——
- −16.5Jaguars——
- −14.5Jaguars——
- −13.5Jaguars——
- −10.5Jaguars——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects by 9.9
- −9.5Jaguars——
- −7.5Jaguars——
- −6.5Jaguars——
- −5.5Jaguars——
- −4.5Jaguars——
- −3.5Jaguars——
- −2.5Jaguars—outside band
- −1.5Jaguars—outside band
- +1.5Jaguars—outside band
- +2.5Jaguars—outside band
- +3.5Jaguars—outside band
- +4.5Jaguars—outside band
- +5.5Jaguars—outside band
- +6.5Jaguars—outside band
- +7.5Jaguars—outside band
- +9.5Jaguars—outside band
- +10.5Jaguars—outside band
- +13.5Jaguars—outside band
- +14.5Jaguars—outside band
Priced. The market and the model tell the same story at every rung.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Colts vs Jaguars power ratings (Week 8) What PWR measures →
Colts and Jaguars season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Colts vs Jaguars player props What YES, NO and the tier mean →
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul TutenRB | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 12 player-prop edges for Week 8 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Colts vs Jaguars — player pages
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC South math: Colts at Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars is a AFC South game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 18. The model has the Jaguars by 7 (69%) off a +2.8 to -1.6 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the AFC South, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +2.2 (8th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (22nd) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Jaguars defense (-0.2, 11th), a 0.3-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC South games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC South race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12 of 17) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7) — 3.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Colts'. Nothing on the Colts' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-22 in the Colts' favour. They last met in 2025: Jaguars won 23-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 69% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC contract implies 81% for the Jaguars against a fair value (books) of 80% — a 0.5-point gap. That is inside our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), so we pass — the market and the fair value are telling the same story.
Full division picture on the AFC South hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC
- Market-implied (Jaguars)
- 81c · 81%
- Fair value — books (Jaguars)
- 80%
- Fair value vs market
- -0.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 81c on the Jaguars is an implied 81% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 80%, a 0.5pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Colts vs Jaguars line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Jaguars −4.5 (DraftKings). The median across 9 books now is the Jaguars −9.5. On Kalshi the Jaguars trade at 81¢ to win, a 81% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Jaguars −4.5 · O/U 49.5Sep 13 | Jaguars −10 · O/U 46.5 | |
| FanDuel | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 47.5Oct 20 | Jaguars −9.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| BetMGM | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 25 | Jaguars −9.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| Caesars | Jaguars −4 · O/U 48.5Sep 13 | Jaguars −10 · O/U 46.5 | |
| BetRivers | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 47Oct 20 | Jaguars −9.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| ESPN BET | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 26 | Jaguars −9.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| Fanatics | Jaguars −8 · O/U 46.5Oct 26 | Jaguars −10 · O/U 46 | |
| Novig | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 47.5Oct 20 | Jaguars −10.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| ProphetX | Jaguars −7.5 · O/U 46.5Oct 25 | Jaguars −9.5 · O/U 46.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Jaguars 81¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Colts vs Jaguars trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jaguars | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 81% 81c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 81% 81c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 81% 81c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 81% 81c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 81% 81c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Colts at Jaguars
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 4:10 PM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi4:10 PM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner4:36 PM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts to win | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | 19.8¢20.9¢ after fees | Even |
| Jaguars to win | 81¢82.1¢ after fees | 80.8¢81.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Jaguars −9.5 | 52¢53.7¢ after fees | 53¢54.7¢ after fees | Even |
| Over 46.5 | 50¢51.8¢ after fees | 49¢50.7¢ after fees | Polymarket US1¢ less |
| Player props on both venues | |||
| Daniel Jones anytime TD | no current price | 11¢11.7¢ after fees | — |
| Trevor Lawrence 2+ pass TDs | no current price | 65¢66.6¢ after fees | — |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. 30+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Bhayshul Tuten 70+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Brenton Strange anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Parker Washington 70+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Bhayshul Tuten 60+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Parker Washington anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 446 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (second half spread, full game spread, second quarter total, full game total, first half spread).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Colts vs Jaguars
4:36Jaguars vs. Texans: Find the Edge on Kalshi! 🏈 | 7 Oracles NFL Prediction Market AnalysisOct 16, 2026
45:31NFL Week 6 Prediction Markets Picks: Saints vs Giants, Cowboys-Packers Over | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 15, 2026
4:20Kalshi NFL Odds Explained: How to Use the 7 Oracles NFL Prediction ToolsOct 3, 2026Colts vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who will win Jaguars vs Colts?
The market line has the Jaguars at 80% to beat the Colts in Week 8.
Who is favored in Colts vs Jaguars in Week 8?
The market line has the Jaguars by 9.5 points, a 80% win probability over the Colts (our model's own line: Jaguars by 7). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC market implies 81% for the Jaguars — a 0.5pp agreement with the market line.
How much does a AFC South result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC South teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 18. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Jaguars by 7 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Jaguars?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Jaguars YES is quoted around 81c against a fair value (books) of 80%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jaguars host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, November 1, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 8, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 10.5 wins (favored in 12) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Jaguars?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC. The Jaguars YES contract sits around 81c, which is an implied 81% — against our books-anchored fair value of 80%. That is a 0.5pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Colts vs Jaguars on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 8 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV01INDJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Jaguars?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Jaguars at 69% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Colts vs Jaguars ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Colts moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 20% against a market price implying 20%, an edge of +0.5 points. Model 20% vs market 19% on IND. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 8 card, market price vs our number. Free.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Colts–Jaguars, Week 18 →
After this one
More Week 8 matchups
Panthers at PackersModel: Packers −5
Ravens at BillsModel: Bills −3.5
Titans at BengalsModel: Bengals −9.5
Cardinals at CowboysModel: Cowboys −6.5
Vikings at LionsModel: Lions −2.5
Raiders at JetsModel: Jets −4
Browns at SteelersModel: Steelers −3
Falcons at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −3.5
Chargers at RamsModel: Rams −8.5
Chiefs at BroncosModel: Broncos −4
Patriots at DolphinsModel: Patriots −5
Eagles at CommandersModel: Commanders −7
Bears at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −3.5Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale