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Home/NFL/Week 4/Lions vs Panthers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 4 · 2026

Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32

Final. Panthers' next game: Panthers vs Packers, Week 8 →Upset: Panthers closed +160 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win); the Panthers won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Lions at 66c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win). The Panthers won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Lions: +3c — we archived the Lions at 63c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 66c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 4 · 2026-10-05

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Panthers moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 34% on CAR — kept as the pre-game record.34c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Panthers 32, Lions 26: Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and Carolina scored on six straight possessions

Carolina was missing two of its top three wide receivers, Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, so Bryce Young kept throwing to McMillan: 9 catches for 147 yards in the first half alone. Young opened 11 for 11 and finished 29 of 41 for 329 yards. Chuba Hubbard ran for a season-high 122 yards and two touchdowns. After punting on its first drive, Carolina scored on its next six. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards for Detroit, but the Lions ran for 46 and turned it over on downs twice in the fourth quarter. The market moved half a point toward Detroit, to −3.5, and the total moved seven points, from 45.5 to 52.5. The two teams scored 58.

Lions 26—Panthers 32

Final✗ Call missed

The chip on this page reads a miss, and the ledger’s position is the one that came through. Our stored probability had Carolina at 37.8%, the market’s number anchored at weight zero to Lions −3.5, and Carolina won, so the chip grades a miss. The model’s own read had the game dead even, Carolina by 0.07, a 3.6-point MODERATE lean toward the Panthers. The ledger put a position on that lean: a MODERATE Panthers moneyline entered at 45.5¢. The market spent the week moving the other way, and the contract closed at 34.5¢, a CLV of minus 11¢. Carolina won, and the ledger graded it a win on 2026-10-06. The player board carried no PLAY row on this game. Nine WATCH rows that count went 5-4, graded apart from the record. Young under 9.5, 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards won (he ran for three), as did Darren Waller under 3.5 catches and Jameson Williams over 3.5. Sam LaPorta’s under ladder on receiving yards, 39.5 to 59.5, lost all three rungs to an 84-yard night, and Tommy Tremble over 14.5 receiving yards lost (he had 12). Five suppressed rows went 2-3 and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Lions −3 → Lions −3.5
Total
45.5 → 52.5
Moneyline
DET −162 / CAR +136 → DET −192 / CAR +160

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 7 to 52.5; the game landed on 58.

How it happened

Q2

McMillan had 147 yards by halftime, and it was still 16-16

Detroit scored first on Jake Bates’ 54-yarder. Hubbard answered with a 15-yard touchdown run, and McMillan caught a 32-yard touchdown, though Ryan Fitzgerald missed the extra point. Jahmyr Gibbs tied it from the 1 with 2:14 left in the half. Fitzgerald kicked a 47-yarder with 28 seconds left, and Goff got Detroit into range in four plays for Bates’ 41-yarder at the gun.

Halftime
Lions 16, Panthers 16
McMillan, first half
9 catches · 147 yds · 1 TD

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Two Carolina touchdown drives in the third quarter

Carolina opened the half with an 11-play, 76-yard drive that ended in McMillan’s second touchdown, from ten yards; Fitzgerald missed the extra point again. Bates kicked a 26-yarder, and Carolina answered with 85 yards in seven plays, Hubbard scoring from two for 29-19.

After three
Panthers 29, Lions 19

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Fitzgerald made it 13, LaPorta cut it to six, and Detroit was stopped on downs twice

Carolina’s 13-play, 72-yard drive ended with Fitzgerald’s 33-yarder for 32-19 with 8:59 left. Detroit drove 64 yards and turned it over on downs. Goff found LaPorta from eight to make it 32-26 with 3:38 left, but the Lions’ last drive started at their own 13 and ended on downs four plays later.

Final
Panthers 32, Lions 26
McMillan
14 catches · 192 yds · 2 TD on 16 targets
Young
29 of 41 · 329 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Goff
32 of 52 · 412 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Hubbard
20 carries · 122 yds · 2 TD
Rushing
CAR 127 · DET 46

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • This recap was written on 2026-10-09, four days after the game. The ledger graded the Panthers moneyline a win (pnl_cents +54) on 2026-10-06. The WATCH tallies come from a script run against ESPN’s box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W4_LATE_AND_W3_SNF_RECAPS_2026-10-09/props-w04-det-car.csv), not from the ledger. If the ledger ever disagrees with this page, the ledger is right.
  • The Panthers row’s entry timestamp was not re-read for this recap. The entry and close prices quoted are the ledger’s own captures.
  • The total moved seven points. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so this recap does not say what moved it.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game.

Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Young, McMillan connect for 2 TDs to lead Panthers past Lions 32-26 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Jahmyr Gibbs against the league’s worst run defense, Bryce Young against the league’s second-fastest pressure, on a wet field in Charlotte’s first home Sunday night game in eleven years

Carolina is hosting Sunday Night Football for the first time since 2015 and has lost both starting cornerbacks and its left guard in the week it does so. Detroit arrives with the second-best pass-blocking line in football and a running back averaging 27 touches a game against a defense allowing 5.7 yards a carry — but also with the league’s worst pass defense by yards, against the quarterback who leads the NFL in passing. Charlotte expects an inch and a half of rain through Sunday with showers lingering toward kickoff.

Injury and practice participation

Carolina without both starting corners and its left guard; Detroit without Bartch and with D.J. Reed questionable; both quarterbacks full

Edge: Lions

Carolina placed cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve on Tuesday — roughly eight weeks each — and on Friday ruled out receiver Xavier Legette and left guard Damien Lewis, with Corey Bullock starting at guard and rookie Will Lee III and Akayleb Evans expected at corner. Jalen Coker (quad) and right tackle Monroe Freeling, still in concussion protocol, are questionable; Darren Waller practised fully and carries no designation. Bryce Young was a full participant all week with the knee he tweaked in Cleveland. Detroit ruled out lineman Ben Bartch and listed cornerback D.J. Reed (rib) as questionable; Goff is not on the report, and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain on the physically-unable list.

Panthers OUT
Xavier Legette (knee), Damien Lewis, LG (elbow); Horn and M. Jackson on IR since 09-30
Panthers QUESTIONABLE
Jalen Coker (quad), Monroe Freeling, RT (concussion), Lee Hunter and Cam Jackson, DT
Darren Waller
No designation — full practice; rest/toe early in the week
Lions
Ben Bartch OUT (foot); D.J. Reed QUESTIONABLE (rib); Branch and Joseph on PUP

Source: panthers.com — Week 4 Friday injury report: two ruled out, Legette, Lewis; Coker questionable (2026-10-02)

Lions run game · Panthers front

Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions’ line against a run defense ranked last in everything

Edge: Lions

Carolina allows 193 rushing yards a game and 5.7 a carry, both 32nd in the league, stuffs fewer than nine percent of runs and gives up nearly four yards after contact — Chicago ran for 291 on them in Week 1. Gibbs has 307 yards at 4.7 a carry with four rushing touchdowns and another 156 yards receiving, and Detroit’s line ranks second in pass-block win rate with rookie right tackle Blake Miller winning 96 percent of his reps. Rain usually helps the team that wants to run, and this is the team that wants to run. The one asterisk is Detroit’s own run defense, which gave up 203 yards in Buffalo; Chuba Hubbard is rested and healthy, and Carolina’s offense at 29.7 points a game is not the pushover its defense is.

Panthers run defense
193.3 rush yds/g and 5.7 ypc allowed — both 32nd; 8.9% stuff rate (31st)
Jahmyr Gibbs
65-307 (4.7), 4 rush TD; 18 rec, 156 yds, 2 TD; 27+ touches per game
Lions offensive line
2nd in pass-block win rate; Blake Miller 96% at right tackle
Lions run defense
203 rush yards allowed in Buffalo in Week 2

Source: Pride of Detroit via Yahoo — Lions preview: breaking down the Panthers (2026-10-01)

Panthers pass offense · Lions pressure and tight-end coverage

Bryce Young, pressured on 43% of dropbacks, against the second-fastest pass rush in the league

Close to even

Young leads the NFL with 939 passing yards and has seven touchdowns, and he has done it behind a line that allows pressure on 43.6 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in football — he was pressured on half his dropbacks in Cleveland and completes 49 percent of his throws under duress. Detroit gets there on 39 percent of dropbacks and arrives in 2.46 seconds, second-fastest in the league, with Aidan Hutchinson at three and a half sacks. The counterweight is real: the Lions allow 299 passing yards a game, last in the league, and have given up 29 catches, 351 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends — Darren Waller’s position. Without Lewis at guard and possibly without Freeling at tackle, Young’s protection gets worse before Hutchinson snaps the ball.

Bryce Young
939 pass yds (1st), 7 TD; pressured on 43.5% of dropbacks (2nd-highest); 49% under pressure
Lions pressure
39% pressure rate (top 10); 2.46s time to pressure (2nd); Hutchinson 3.5 sacks
Lions pass defense
299.3 pass yds/g allowed (32nd); 29-351-6 allowed to tight ends
Darren Waller
10 rec, 112 yds, 2 TD on the season

Source: Pride of Detroit via Yahoo — Lions vs. Panthers preview: three matchups (2026-10-02)

What this read does not know

  • Our injury feed is practice participation, not game-status designations. The slate behind this page was run Friday at 16:51 ET; Coker’s Saturday reassessment and Freeling’s clearance are not in it. If Coker sits, Carolina’s receivers are Brycen Tremayne plus a practice-squad elevation.
  • The field. The Weather Service has Sunday at 80% showers and Sunday night at 60% "mainly before 8 PM"; the team’s own forecast says the chance diminishes toward kickoff. One to two and a half inches fall before then either way. A wet field favors the run game above and works against the deep ball on both sides.
  • Detroit’s cornerback contingency if D.J. Reed sits is unreported , and the Lions’ 12-sack, 43%-blitz figures above come from a single beat source; the pressure-rate and time-to-pressure numbers are the ones we would stand behind.
  • The power ratings behind the model line are this week’s board (as-of 2026-09-30, written by the Week 4 pipeline run). Carolina’s defensive rating includes the 59-point Chicago game and does not yet know Horn and Jackson are gone; Detroit’s includes a 41-point night in Buffalo.
  • Our model leans toward Carolina and we publish no game-line position on it. The model has this game closer than the market does, which is the underdog lean our game model has shown every week this season. A lean that matches a known bias is a note until the bias is fixed.
  • Should you take Darren Waller to score? We hold it at WATCH, and here is the fork. Our model projects 0.83 touchdowns and has him scoring about 56% of the time, which is far enough from the market that our own rule holds it for review, and anytime-touchdown is not a family our model is graded on. For wins if Detroit keeps allowing tight-end touchdowns at the rate it has — six in three games; against wins if the rain and the pressure turn Young’s night into checkdowns that end short of the end zone.

Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: panthers.com — Week 4 Friday injury report (2026-10-02) · detroitlions.com — Lions at Panthers injury report, Oct. 2: Bartch, Reed, Wonnum (2026-10-02) · panthers.com — Four takeaways from Friday: Coker’s status, Freeling, weather (2026-10-02) · NBC Sports — Panthers place starting CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson on IR (2026-09-30) · panthers.com — Five takeaways from Wednesday: injury updates, Bryce Young, blackout (2026-09-30) · Pride of Detroit via Yahoo — Lions preview: breaking down the Panthers (2026-10-01) · Pride of Detroit via Yahoo — Lions vs. Panthers preview: three matchups (2026-10-02) · Side Lion Report — What pass-block win rate says about the Lions’ line (2026-10-01) · WFNZ — Banged-up Panthers face a tough primetime test against the Lions (2026-10-02) · WBTV — Wet weekend brings an end to the autumn warm spell; Charlotte forecast (2026-10-02) · National Weather Service — Charlotte forecast (read 2026-10-02) · NBC Sports press release — No. 1 picks Young and Goff square off on Sunday Night Football (2026-09-30)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 4 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 4
AWAY DET +0.6
vs DET -3.5
HOME CAR -0.9
Fair (books) · CAR 38% home win prob
Kalshi · CAR — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Charlotte, NC PASS — no position

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Lions

62%

fair value (books)

Panthers

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

66%

Madden 27

34%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Lions at Panthers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Lions at PanthersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Lions at Panthers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 4: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Lions–Panthers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Lions vs Panthers power ratings (Week 4) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Detroit Lions+0.613thAverage
    Carolina Panthers-0.922ndAverage

    Lions and Panthers season outlook

    DETCAR
    Average wins9.78.1
    Make playoffs56%40%
    Win division19%34%
    Win Super Bowl3.3%2.0%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Lions vs Panthers — player pages

    All players →

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR

    Tetairoa McMillan

    WR

    Jameson Williams

    WR

    Chuba Hubbard

    RB

    Jared Goff

    QB

    Jalen Coker

    WR

    Sam LaPorta

    TE

    Darren Waller

    TE

    John Metchie III

    Tommy Tremble

    Bryce Young

    QB

    Trevor Etienne

    CAR Panthers D/ST

    Mitchell Evans

    Brock Wright

    DET Lions D/ST

    Isaac TeSlaa

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Lions–Panthers is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 — the graded call is above.

    The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Lions rate +0.6 (13th of 32) against -0.9 for the Panthers (22nd) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.5-point gap between them, so the model lands at 50% for the Panthers anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 16 games in Week 4, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Panthers at 8.1 wins (favored in 5 of 17) and the Lions at 9.7 (favored in 9) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Panthers' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Lions'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +2.1 (9th of 32) against a Panthers defense at -1.9 (23rd) — 4.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Panthers offense (+0.6, 15th) meets the Lions defense (-2.0, 24th), a 2.6-point gap.

    One team has owned this series: the Panthers are 8-3 in 11 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2023: Lions won 42-24 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Panthers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Carolina home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 68°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Panthers at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Lions vs Panthers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR
    Market-implied (Panthers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Panthers)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Panthers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Lions vs Panthers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePanthersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig34% 34cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Lions vs Panthers, Week 4 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/lions-vs-panthers-week-04-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Lions vs Panthers

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    Lions vs Panthers — frequently asked

    Who won Lions vs Panthers in Week 4?

    Detroit Lions 26, Carolina Panthers 32 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Panthers won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Lions vs Panthers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Lions by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Panthers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Panthers (-0.9, 22nd) and Lions (+0.6, 13th) are only 1.5 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 38%/62%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Lions vs Panthers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Panthers at 36c or below, or the Lions at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Panthers host the Lions?

    Detroit Lions visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC.

    What does the model project for the Panthers and Lions this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Panthers at 8.1 wins (favored in 5) and the Lions at 9.7 (favored in 9). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Panthers' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Lions', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Panthers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Lions vs Panthers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DETCAR has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 50% on a team like the Panthers?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Panthers at 50% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Panthers moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 34%, an edge of +3.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 34% on CAR — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Lions: Week 5 at CardinalsModel line →Panthers: Week 6 at EaglesModel line →

    More Week 4 matchups

    Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2

    Full Week 4 board →Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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    One of 64 games in the first-quarter report

    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

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