Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 22, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Eagles by 5.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Week 11 2026 — 66% to win, and a 7-day rest edge for the Eagles, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22PITPHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Eagles at 61c or below (or Steelers at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PIT
-0.5
PHI
+2.5
Steelers
34%
model win prob
Eagles
66%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV22PITPHIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Eagles at 61c or below, or the Steelers at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Steelers at Eagles
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Eagles come in with 7 more days off than the other side — 14 days' rest for the Eagles against 7 days' rest for the Steelers. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Eagles by 5.5 (66%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 7-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Steelers come in off the Bengals, the Eagles off the Giants. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Eagles grade +1.8 on that side of the ball (5th of 32) against a Steelers offense at -0.5 (21st) — 2.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (+0.5, 17th) meets the Steelers defense (-0.5, 13th), a 1.0-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 9.7 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Steelers'.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Eagles' favour. They last met in 2024: Eagles won 27-13 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Eagles are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Eagles here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22PITPHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Eagles 66%, Steelers 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Eagles contracts a buy at 61c or below and Steelers contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Steelers vs Eagles — frequently asked
Who is favored in Steelers vs Eagles in Week 11?
Our power-rating model favors the Eagles by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Steelers. The Eagles rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Steelers 19th (-0.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22PITPHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Eagles have 7 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 5.5-point line or the 66% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Steelers vs Eagles?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV22PITPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Eagles at 61c or below, or the Steelers at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Eagles host the Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, November 22, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 11, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
What does the model project for the Eagles and Steelers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 9.7 wins (favored in 11) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Steelers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Eagles?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Eagles at 66% over the Steelers sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 11 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 11 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.