San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

49ers

47%

model win prob

Chiefs

53%

model win prob

Model line

Chiefs −1

Kalshi (Chiefs)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Chiefs — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

San Francisco 49ers+1.09thAverage

Kansas City Chiefs-0.519thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Chiefs 19th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the 49ers 9th (Average tier, +1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Chiefs by 1 — a 53% win probability for the Chiefs.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 53% (Chiefs) / 47% (49ers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

49ers vs Chiefs — frequently asked

Who is favored in 49ers vs Chiefs in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Chiefs by 1 points and gives them a 53% win probability over the 49ers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for 49ers vs Chiefs?

Home win probability 53% (Chiefs), away 47% (49ers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.4 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Chiefs rate 19th of 32 (Average tier), the 49ers 9th (Average tier).

Can you trade 49ers vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.