New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Patriots

46%

model win prob

Bills

54%

model win prob

Model line

Bills −1.5

Kalshi (Bills)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bills — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New England Patriots+3.32ndPlayoff

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 4, the New England Patriots travel to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bills 5th of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.2) and the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier, +3.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bills by 1.5 — a 54% win probability for the Bills.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 54% (Bills) / 46% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a AFC East divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the AFC East race. Track the full division on the AFC East hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Bills — frequently asked

Who is favored in Patriots vs Bills in Week 4?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bills by 1.5 points and gives them a 54% win probability over the Patriots. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Patriots vs Bills?

Home win probability 54% (Bills), away 46% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bills rate 5th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Patriots vs Bills on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.