Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3 (60% to win); the Packers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Packers at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3 (60% to win). The Packers won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Packers: -3c — we archived the Packers at 62c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Oct 4. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Daniels, an undrafted rookie starting for Baker Mayfield (dislocated thumb), threw two interceptions that became 10 Green Bay points. Love’s touchdowns to Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft built a 17-7 lead, and Daniels’ touchdown pass to Kenny Gainwell cut it to three early in the fourth. Kaleb Johnson then fumbled at the Tampa Bay 4 and Love threw an interception at the Bucs 26, but Tampa Bay turned it over on downs at the Green Bay 47. The Buccaneers are 0-4 for the first time since 2014.
Packers 17—Buccaneers 14
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. The stored probability had Green Bay at 60.5% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 3-point Packers line — and Green Bay won by three. This was a QB-adjusted game on our board (Daniels for Mayfield), so the lean was capped at WATCH and no game-line position published. The model’s own read was Green Bay by 3.7, a 0.7-point lean toward the Packers, tier NONE. They won by exactly the anchored three, so the lean is a push. The one ledger row on this game, 2026_04_GB_TB_moneyline (MODERATE, Green Bay, entered at 40.5c on 2026-09-22), was voided before kickoff on 2026-09-28 by the QB gate and is not a grade in either direction. Saturday’s article made one call here, and it cleared: Love 2+ touchdown passes, YES at 46c, PLAY, HIGH. He threw two. The same strike was the final board’s PLAY row (HIGH, the YES at 45c, closing 44c, a CLV of minus 1c), and it clears too. The Play of the Day was also on this game: Bucky Irving 60+ rushing yards, YES at 44c. Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards, a winner by one yard. Four WATCH rows that count went 2-2 and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 9 to 38.5; the game landed on 31.
Q2
Love threw a two-yard touchdown to Golden on fourth down at 12:54 of the second quarter. Daniels answered by completing both his passes for 27 yards and scrambling for nine on the drive, and Sean Tucker ran it in from two at 5:13.
Q2
Cooper stepped in front of Daniels’ throw for Kameron Johnson in the final minute of the half, got up and returned it 18 yards to the Tampa Bay 44. Smack kicked a 58-yarder on the last play.
Q3
Love’s two-yard touchdown to Kraft at 10:32 made it 17-7. Cooper was carted off later in the quarter with an Achilles tendon injury.
Q4
Daniels hit Gainwell from 10 yards 11 seconds into the quarter for 17-14. Tykee Smith forced Kaleb Johnson’s fumble inside the 5, and Jacob Parrish intercepted Love to give Tampa Bay the ball at its 15 with 4:18 left. The Bucs reached the Green Bay 47 and threw incomplete on fourth down; Todd Bowles passed on a 65-yard attempt and said a little wind factored in.
Reporting verified 2026-10-04. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Jordan Love throws 2 touchdown passes, Packers edge Buccaneers 17-14 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb in Sunday’s home loss to Minnesota, so Tampa Bay hands the job to Jalon Daniels — an undrafted rookie out of Kansas who has never played a regular-season NFL snap. That makes this a QB-adjusted game on our board and caps our lean at a WATCH; we publish no position on the game line. The football question underneath is narrower than the quarterback headline: Green Bay is 1-2 with the worst pass protection in the league and the worst point differential it has carried through three games since 1988, and Tampa Bay is 0-3 with a blitz-heavy defense that held both of its starting edge rushers out of Wednesday’s practice.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
This is the input that governs everything else on the page. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the 23-16 loss to Minnesota, did not practise on Wednesday and is gone for at least three weeks on our feed, which leaves the offense to Daniels — signed as an undrafted free agent in May, handed the backup job on 30 August over Jake Browning, and now making his first NFL start in front of a home crowd that has not seen a win yet. Green Bay passes the gate cleanly: Jordan Love is the confirmed starter and does not appear on the report at all. The rest of Tampa Bay’s Wednesday is the longer worry — seven players sat out, including both starting edge rushers and the receiver the passing game leans on hardest. Green Bay’s own list is shorter but sits in one place: three interior defensive linemen and two of its interior offensive linemen.
Source: buccaneers.com — Buccaneers/Packers injury report, Sept. 30, Week 4 2026
Buccaneers pressure · Packers pass protection
This is the matchup that decides the game, and it is the one place a winless team has a real advantage. Green Bay’s line has graded worst in the league in pass protection through three weeks and has already allowed more pressures than anyone, with a quarterback-hit total twelve clear of second place; the problem is not one position but every position, with both guards and the right tackle near the bottom of their groups. Love has been pressured on a career-high share of his dropbacks, and the split either side of that is the whole story — he is a comfortably above-average quarterback when the pocket holds and close to unplayable when it does not, which is exactly what Atlanta did to him on Thursday night. Tampa Bay blitzes almost more than anyone in football, so the plan does not need inventing. Whether it has the bodies to run it is the open question: Yaya Diaby and Rueben Bain Jr. both sat out Wednesday, and this was already a front that turned pressure into sacks at close to the worst rate in the league a year ago.
Source: PFF — The Packers’ offensive line has been a catastrophic problem through three weeks
Buccaneers run offense · Packers run defense
A quarterback making his first start does not get asked to throw his way to a win, so the honest read on Tampa Bay’s offense is how far the ground game can carry him — and the ground game is the one part of this team that has been genuinely good, leading the league in rushing yards per attempt inside the opponent’s twenty. Two things complicate it. Bucky Irving was limited on Wednesday with a glute, and Chris Godwin Jr. did not practise at all, which thins both the hand-off and the short safety-valve a rookie reaches for when the pocket closes. Against that, Green Bay’s front is the softest target on the field right now: Atlanta rushed for 242 yards and better than six a carry at Lambeau, Micah Parsons opened the season on the physically-unable-to-perform list and is not expected back before Week 5, and three interior defensive linemen were held out of Wednesday’s practice. Green Bay also offers the clearest illustration of the trap Tampa Bay is trying to avoid — it ran nine times for 17 yards in Atlanta and then let its quarterback get hit twelve times.
Source: roundtable.io — The good, bad and ugly from Green Bay’s Week 3 loss to Atlanta
Reporting verified 2026-10-01. Further sources: buccaneers.com — Buccaneers/Packers injury report, Sept. 30, Week 4 2026 · NFL.com — official Week 4 injury report (latest practice participation) · buccaneers.com — How to watch Buccaneers vs Packers, Week 4 2026 (Mayfield dislocated thumb, 1:00 p.m. ET) · buccaneers.com — Jalon Daniels’s ascension "an incredible accomplishment" · FantasyNerds — Bucs elevate UDFA Jalon Daniels to QB2, cut Jake Browning (2026-08-30) · PFF — The Packers’ offensive line has been a catastrophic problem through three weeks · roundtable.io — The good, bad and ugly from Green Bay’s Week 3 loss to Atlanta · NFL.com — Matt LaFleur: "butt-whooping" from Falcons was humbling · NBC Sports — Jordan Love crumbles under relentless pressure (Week 3, 2026-09-24) · buccaneers.com — Red-zone defense and blitzes incoming: by the numbers, Week 3 2026 · buccaneers.com — David Walker and the Bucs defensive front: "four equals one" (2025 sack-conversion baseline) · FOX Sports — Week 4 Packers at Buccaneers game page (team records, completion-rate and red-zone rushing ranks) · FOX Sports — Week 3 Vikings at Buccaneers box score (23-16, Tampa Bay to 0-3) · FOX Sports — Micah Parsons injury and recovery timeline (PUP, not before Week 5) · roundtable.io — Pirate problems: Buccaneers continue mini-rivalry with Packers (Week 4 preview)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
GB
+1.4
TB
+0.8
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Packers
60%
fair value (books)
Buccaneers
40%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 — the graded call is above.
These two have played 59 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 6-5 to the Buccaneers since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +0.8 against +1.4, Packers by 3.5, 60% to win. One input in this line is not a rating: the Buccaneers are without their usual starting quarterback (Jalon Daniels starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 5.5 points toward the Packers — already inside the number above.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Buccaneers grade -0.9 on offense (25th of 32) and +1.2 on defense (3rd); the Packers +1.6 (11th) and -0.2 (10th). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Buccaneers (+0.5, 11th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 7.2 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Packers at 9.4 (favored in 11) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Packers'.
On the calendar, the Packers are on 10 days and the Buccaneers are on 7 days. The Buccaneers are 3 games into a home stand. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Tampa Bay home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 82°F and the median wind 9 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 60% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04GBTB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 40% for the Buccaneers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Buccaneers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 41% 41c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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Green Bay Packers 17, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Packers by 3 (60% to win), and the Packers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Packers by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Buccaneers. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04GBTB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Our records hold 59 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 6-5 for the Buccaneers over 11 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04GBTB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 38c or below, or the Packers at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 7.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Packers at 9.4 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Packers', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04GBTB, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04GBTB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
Our model puts it at 61% against a market price implying 59%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 59% on GB — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5
Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8
Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5
Lions at PanthersModel: even
Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
