Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Packers
48%
model win prob
Buccaneers
52%
model win prob
Model line
Buccaneers −1
Kalshi (Buccaneers)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Buccaneers — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Buccaneers 17th of 32 (Average tier, -0.3) and the Packers 6th (Playoff tier, +1.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Buccaneers by 1 — a 52% win probability for the Buccaneers.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 52% (Buccaneers) / 48% (Packers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Buccaneers in Week 4?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Buccaneers by 1 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Packers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Packers vs Buccaneers?
Home win probability 52% (Buccaneers), away 48% (Packers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -1.7 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Buccaneers rate 17th of 32 (Average tier), the Packers 6th (Playoff tier).
Can you trade Packers vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, October 4, 2026 in NFL Week 4, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.